Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana on Thursday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across much of the region over receptive fuels. While thunderstorm coverage could approach scattered criteria, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, in addition to at least some minor potential for some wetting rainfall from the previous day's weather. This uncertainty currently precludes the expansion of the isolated dry thunder area and the inclusion of any scattered dry thunder areas, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored for subsequent updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Current forecast guidance suggests that there is less potential for winds to reach elevated criteria over the northern Cascades as the upper-trough begins to leave the region, resulting in the removal of the area from the previous forecast. Some elevated fire weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. However, current fuel guidance leaves some uncertainty on where these conditions have significant overlap with receptive fuels, particularly with eastward extent. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND WESTERN MONTANA... ...Synopsis... Scattered dry thunderstorms and elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across much of the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. ...Pacific Northwest... An active fire-weather pattern is anticipated as an upper-level trough moves eastward across Washington and British Columbia, supporting the occurrence of scattered dry thunderstorms across eastern Washington, into Idaho and western Montana. As this trough increases the height gradients (and resulting mid-level flow) along the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin, fast storm motions coupled with hot, dry boundary layers will prevent significant wetting rainfall from occurring over receptive fuels. Additionally, gusty thunderstorm outflow will increase the risk of wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. Portions of central Washington and Oregon, as well as northwestern Montana, will experience elevated fire weather conditions, especially in the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected occur with the passage of the aforementioned upper trough, with highlight areas denoting where these conditions overlap with receptive fuels. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Northeast will continue to shift east toward the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, An upper trough will dig across the West, resulting in an eastward progression of the Plains upper ridge toward the Midwest. A surface cold front is expected to develop southeast across the northern Plains during the afternoon and evening. Scant boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front across the western Dakotas will limit thunderstorm activity. A band of richer boundary layer moisture will reside across the eastern Dakotas into MN and the Mid-MO Valley as southerly low-level flow maintains a persistent warm advection regime. Large-scale ascent will generally remain focused north over the Canadian Prairies and warm midlevel temperatures should maintain capping over the Red River/Mid-MO Valleys, precluding deep convection across the warm sector. Overall severe potential appears low on Friday. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Northeast will continue to shift east toward the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, An upper trough will dig across the West, resulting in an eastward progression of the Plains upper ridge toward the Midwest. A surface cold front is expected to develop southeast across the northern Plains during the afternoon and evening. Scant boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front across the western Dakotas will limit thunderstorm activity. A band of richer boundary layer moisture will reside across the eastern Dakotas into MN and the Mid-MO Valley as southerly low-level flow maintains a persistent warm advection regime. Large-scale ascent will generally remain focused north over the Canadian Prairies and warm midlevel temperatures should maintain capping over the Red River/Mid-MO Valleys, precluding deep convection across the warm sector. Overall severe potential appears low on Friday. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Northeast will continue to shift east toward the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, An upper trough will dig across the West, resulting in an eastward progression of the Plains upper ridge toward the Midwest. A surface cold front is expected to develop southeast across the northern Plains during the afternoon and evening. Scant boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front across the western Dakotas will limit thunderstorm activity. A band of richer boundary layer moisture will reside across the eastern Dakotas into MN and the Mid-MO Valley as southerly low-level flow maintains a persistent warm advection regime. Large-scale ascent will generally remain focused north over the Canadian Prairies and warm midlevel temperatures should maintain capping over the Red River/Mid-MO Valleys, precluding deep convection across the warm sector. Overall severe potential appears low on Friday. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Northeast will continue to shift east toward the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, An upper trough will dig across the West, resulting in an eastward progression of the Plains upper ridge toward the Midwest. A surface cold front is expected to develop southeast across the northern Plains during the afternoon and evening. Scant boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front across the western Dakotas will limit thunderstorm activity. A band of richer boundary layer moisture will reside across the eastern Dakotas into MN and the Mid-MO Valley as southerly low-level flow maintains a persistent warm advection regime. Large-scale ascent will generally remain focused north over the Canadian Prairies and warm midlevel temperatures should maintain capping over the Red River/Mid-MO Valleys, precluding deep convection across the warm sector. Overall severe potential appears low on Friday. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Northeast will continue to shift east toward the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, An upper trough will dig across the West, resulting in an eastward progression of the Plains upper ridge toward the Midwest. A surface cold front is expected to develop southeast across the northern Plains during the afternoon and evening. Scant boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front across the western Dakotas will limit thunderstorm activity. A band of richer boundary layer moisture will reside across the eastern Dakotas into MN and the Mid-MO Valley as southerly low-level flow maintains a persistent warm advection regime. Large-scale ascent will generally remain focused north over the Canadian Prairies and warm midlevel temperatures should maintain capping over the Red River/Mid-MO Valleys, precluding deep convection across the warm sector. Overall severe potential appears low on Friday. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Northeast will continue to shift east toward the western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, An upper trough will dig across the West, resulting in an eastward progression of the Plains upper ridge toward the Midwest. A surface cold front is expected to develop southeast across the northern Plains during the afternoon and evening. Scant boundary-layer moisture ahead of the front across the western Dakotas will limit thunderstorm activity. A band of richer boundary layer moisture will reside across the eastern Dakotas into MN and the Mid-MO Valley as southerly low-level flow maintains a persistent warm advection regime. Large-scale ascent will generally remain focused north over the Canadian Prairies and warm midlevel temperatures should maintain capping over the Red River/Mid-MO Valleys, precluding deep convection across the warm sector. Overall severe potential appears low on Friday. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may produce gusty/locally damaging winds on Thursday across parts of northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will progress eastward across the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly mid/upper level flow will increase to around 30-45 kt between 700 and 500 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Cloudiness is expected across much of the Eastern Seaboard, and pockets of showers, especially across eastern VA/NC, are possible. This will likely inhibit stronger destabilization despite a very moist airmass. A narrow corridor of modest instability overlapping with favorable shear ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front may develop roughly along the I-95 corridor northern VA into southern NJ. Forecast soundings within this corridor suggest organized cells (perhaps marginal/transient supercells) will be possible, posing mainly a risk of locally strong/severe gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Northern Great Basin into Central MT... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across the northern Rockies vicinity. A belt of moderate to strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will become oriented over portions of ID/MT into the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, boundary-layer moisture will be limited and strong heating/deep mixing will result in inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles. Steep midlevel lapse rates however, will support around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. While southwesterly flow near/above 500 mb will increase through the afternoon, vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over higher terrain during the afternoon. Generally modest vertical shear the deeply mixed boundary layer may limit organized convection, especially as storms try to track east into lower elevations ahead of a southeastward surging cold front during the evening. Inhibition is also expected to increase with eastward extent across MT. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe thunderstorms is too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may produce gusty/locally damaging winds on Thursday across parts of northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will progress eastward across the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly mid/upper level flow will increase to around 30-45 kt between 700 and 500 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Cloudiness is expected across much of the Eastern Seaboard, and pockets of showers, especially across eastern VA/NC, are possible. This will likely inhibit stronger destabilization despite a very moist airmass. A narrow corridor of modest instability overlapping with favorable shear ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front may develop roughly along the I-95 corridor northern VA into southern NJ. Forecast soundings within this corridor suggest organized cells (perhaps marginal/transient supercells) will be possible, posing mainly a risk of locally strong/severe gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Northern Great Basin into Central MT... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across the northern Rockies vicinity. A belt of moderate to strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will become oriented over portions of ID/MT into the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, boundary-layer moisture will be limited and strong heating/deep mixing will result in inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles. Steep midlevel lapse rates however, will support around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. While southwesterly flow near/above 500 mb will increase through the afternoon, vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over higher terrain during the afternoon. Generally modest vertical shear the deeply mixed boundary layer may limit organized convection, especially as storms try to track east into lower elevations ahead of a southeastward surging cold front during the evening. Inhibition is also expected to increase with eastward extent across MT. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe thunderstorms is too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may produce gusty/locally damaging winds on Thursday across parts of northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will progress eastward across the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly mid/upper level flow will increase to around 30-45 kt between 700 and 500 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Cloudiness is expected across much of the Eastern Seaboard, and pockets of showers, especially across eastern VA/NC, are possible. This will likely inhibit stronger destabilization despite a very moist airmass. A narrow corridor of modest instability overlapping with favorable shear ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front may develop roughly along the I-95 corridor northern VA into southern NJ. Forecast soundings within this corridor suggest organized cells (perhaps marginal/transient supercells) will be possible, posing mainly a risk of locally strong/severe gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Northern Great Basin into Central MT... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across the northern Rockies vicinity. A belt of moderate to strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will become oriented over portions of ID/MT into the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, boundary-layer moisture will be limited and strong heating/deep mixing will result in inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles. Steep midlevel lapse rates however, will support around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. While southwesterly flow near/above 500 mb will increase through the afternoon, vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over higher terrain during the afternoon. Generally modest vertical shear the deeply mixed boundary layer may limit organized convection, especially as storms try to track east into lower elevations ahead of a southeastward surging cold front during the evening. Inhibition is also expected to increase with eastward extent across MT. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe thunderstorms is too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may produce gusty/locally damaging winds on Thursday across parts of northern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will progress eastward across the Northeast on Thursday. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly mid/upper level flow will increase to around 30-45 kt between 700 and 500 mb, supporting effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt. Cloudiness is expected across much of the Eastern Seaboard, and pockets of showers, especially across eastern VA/NC, are possible. This will likely inhibit stronger destabilization despite a very moist airmass. A narrow corridor of modest instability overlapping with favorable shear ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front may develop roughly along the I-95 corridor northern VA into southern NJ. Forecast soundings within this corridor suggest organized cells (perhaps marginal/transient supercells) will be possible, posing mainly a risk of locally strong/severe gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Northern Great Basin into Central MT... An upper shortwave trough will migrate east across the northern Rockies vicinity. A belt of moderate to strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will become oriented over portions of ID/MT into the Canadian Prairies. At the surface, boundary-layer moisture will be limited and strong heating/deep mixing will result in inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles. Steep midlevel lapse rates however, will support around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. While southwesterly flow near/above 500 mb will increase through the afternoon, vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over higher terrain during the afternoon. Generally modest vertical shear the deeply mixed boundary layer may limit organized convection, especially as storms try to track east into lower elevations ahead of a southeastward surging cold front during the evening. Inhibition is also expected to increase with eastward extent across MT. A few strong gusts are possible, but confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe thunderstorms is too low to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/24/2024 Read more