Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Day 2/Saturday afternoon into the overnight across portions of the Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Primary change with this forecast was to expand the Isolated dry thunderstorm area further northwest along and west of the Cascades in Oregon, with ensemble guidance now suggesting greater coverage of isolated fast-moving nocturnal thunderstorms. Additionally, ERCs exceed the 97th percentile across much of the area, likely leading to efficient lightning ignitions with any dry thunderstorms. The isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be expanded even further northwestward toward the Oregon Coast, but confidence remains a bit too low at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Day 2/Saturday afternoon into the overnight across portions of the Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Primary change with this forecast was to expand the Isolated dry thunderstorm area further northwest along and west of the Cascades in Oregon, with ensemble guidance now suggesting greater coverage of isolated fast-moving nocturnal thunderstorms. Additionally, ERCs exceed the 97th percentile across much of the area, likely leading to efficient lightning ignitions with any dry thunderstorms. The isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be expanded even further northwestward toward the Oregon Coast, but confidence remains a bit too low at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Day 2/Saturday afternoon into the overnight across portions of the Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Primary change with this forecast was to expand the Isolated dry thunderstorm area further northwest along and west of the Cascades in Oregon, with ensemble guidance now suggesting greater coverage of isolated fast-moving nocturnal thunderstorms. Additionally, ERCs exceed the 97th percentile across much of the area, likely leading to efficient lightning ignitions with any dry thunderstorms. The isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be expanded even further northwestward toward the Oregon Coast, but confidence remains a bit too low at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Day 2/Saturday afternoon into the overnight across portions of the Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Primary change with this forecast was to expand the Isolated dry thunderstorm area further northwest along and west of the Cascades in Oregon, with ensemble guidance now suggesting greater coverage of isolated fast-moving nocturnal thunderstorms. Additionally, ERCs exceed the 97th percentile across much of the area, likely leading to efficient lightning ignitions with any dry thunderstorms. The isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be expanded even further northwestward toward the Oregon Coast, but confidence remains a bit too low at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Day 2/Saturday afternoon into the overnight across portions of the Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Primary change with this forecast was to expand the Isolated dry thunderstorm area further northwest along and west of the Cascades in Oregon, with ensemble guidance now suggesting greater coverage of isolated fast-moving nocturnal thunderstorms. Additionally, ERCs exceed the 97th percentile across much of the area, likely leading to efficient lightning ignitions with any dry thunderstorms. The isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be expanded even further northwestward toward the Oregon Coast, but confidence remains a bit too low at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Day 2/Saturday afternoon into the overnight across portions of the Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Primary change with this forecast was to expand the Isolated dry thunderstorm area further northwest along and west of the Cascades in Oregon, with ensemble guidance now suggesting greater coverage of isolated fast-moving nocturnal thunderstorms. Additionally, ERCs exceed the 97th percentile across much of the area, likely leading to efficient lightning ignitions with any dry thunderstorms. The isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be expanded even further northwestward toward the Oregon Coast, but confidence remains a bit too low at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Day 2/Saturday afternoon into the overnight across portions of the Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Primary change with this forecast was to expand the Isolated dry thunderstorm area further northwest along and west of the Cascades in Oregon, with ensemble guidance now suggesting greater coverage of isolated fast-moving nocturnal thunderstorms. Additionally, ERCs exceed the 97th percentile across much of the area, likely leading to efficient lightning ignitions with any dry thunderstorms. The isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be expanded even further northwestward toward the Oregon Coast, but confidence remains a bit too low at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Day 2/Saturday afternoon into the overnight across portions of the Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Primary change with this forecast was to expand the Isolated dry thunderstorm area further northwest along and west of the Cascades in Oregon, with ensemble guidance now suggesting greater coverage of isolated fast-moving nocturnal thunderstorms. Additionally, ERCs exceed the 97th percentile across much of the area, likely leading to efficient lightning ignitions with any dry thunderstorms. The isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be expanded even further northwestward toward the Oregon Coast, but confidence remains a bit too low at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Day 2/Saturday afternoon into the overnight across portions of the Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Primary change with this forecast was to expand the Isolated dry thunderstorm area further northwest along and west of the Cascades in Oregon, with ensemble guidance now suggesting greater coverage of isolated fast-moving nocturnal thunderstorms. Additionally, ERCs exceed the 97th percentile across much of the area, likely leading to efficient lightning ignitions with any dry thunderstorms. The isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be expanded even further northwestward toward the Oregon Coast, but confidence remains a bit too low at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Day 2/Saturday afternoon into the overnight across portions of the Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Primary change with this forecast was to expand the Isolated dry thunderstorm area further northwest along and west of the Cascades in Oregon, with ensemble guidance now suggesting greater coverage of isolated fast-moving nocturnal thunderstorms. Additionally, ERCs exceed the 97th percentile across much of the area, likely leading to efficient lightning ignitions with any dry thunderstorms. The isolated dry thunderstorm area may need to be expanded even further northwestward toward the Oregon Coast, but confidence remains a bit too low at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 19 19:09:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains. ...Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia... As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally organized convection capable of damaging winds. ...Raton Mesa Vicinity... Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts. Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities. ...Kansas/western Oklahoma... Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma. While this may provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains. ...Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia... As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally organized convection capable of damaging winds. ...Raton Mesa Vicinity... Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts. Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities. ...Kansas/western Oklahoma... Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma. While this may provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains. ...Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia... As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally organized convection capable of damaging winds. ...Raton Mesa Vicinity... Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts. Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities. ...Kansas/western Oklahoma... Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma. While this may provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains. ...Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia... As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally organized convection capable of damaging winds. ...Raton Mesa Vicinity... Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts. Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities. ...Kansas/western Oklahoma... Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma. While this may provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains. ...Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia... As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally organized convection capable of damaging winds. ...Raton Mesa Vicinity... Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts. Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities. ...Kansas/western Oklahoma... Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma. While this may provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains. ...Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia... As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally organized convection capable of damaging winds. ...Raton Mesa Vicinity... Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts. Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities. ...Kansas/western Oklahoma... Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma. While this may provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains. ...Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia... As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally organized convection capable of damaging winds. ...Raton Mesa Vicinity... Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts. Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities. ...Kansas/western Oklahoma... Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma. While this may provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains. ...Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia... As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally organized convection capable of damaging winds. ...Raton Mesa Vicinity... Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts. Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities. ...Kansas/western Oklahoma... Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma. While this may provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains. ...Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia... As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally organized convection capable of damaging winds. ...Raton Mesa Vicinity... Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts. Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities. ...Kansas/western Oklahoma... Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma. While this may provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 Read more