Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...RATON MESA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and in the vicinity of the Raton Mes on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will be present across the West into the High Plains region on Saturday. In the Midwest and East, rather broad upper troughing is expected. Flow aloft will be modest aside from some areas that will be influenced by MCVs. The surface pattern will be nebulous across much of the CONUS. A weak surface low is forecast within North Carolina into southern Virginia. A weak surface trough is also anticipated in the southern/central Plains. ...Parts of Carolinas into southeast Virginia... As the subtropical ridge intensifies in the Atlantic, some stronger mid-level flow is possible across parts of the Carolinas into the southern Mid-Atlantic. There is uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur Saturday afternoon in part due to potential cloud cover from earlier convection/weak MCV moving in from the southeast. Furthermore, there is potential for early convective activity along the North Carolina/Virginia border near a weak surface low/boundary. Model guidance is consequently variable in the amount of storm coverage. Where storms do develop during the afternoon, effective shear around 30 kts will promote marginally organized convection capable of damaging winds. ...Raton Mesa Vicinity... Model guidance is in general agreement that a weak perturbation will rotate around the upper ridge and promote scattered convection from the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa. Modest low-level moisture is expected to bu shunted up against the terrain. Low/mid-level lapse rates will be steep and 0-6 km shear will be 30-40 kts. Temperature-dewpoint spreads may be near 30 F and lead to outflow dominant storms. Some CAMs suggest a clustering may occur in parts of southeast Colorado into northeast New Mexico. Though some uncertainty remains, potential for isolated severe gusts appears high enough to included 5% severe wind probabilities. ...Kansas/western Oklahoma... Some showers/convection are probable to be ongoing in association with one or more MCVs from central Oklahoma into northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska. At present, an outflow boundary is possible within northeast/central Kansas into western Oklahoma. While this may provide some focus for storm development during the afternoon. However, given the position behind earlier MCV activity and stronger mid-level winds generally displaced westward, storm initiation and overall severity of storms that do develop is too uncertain for unconditional severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with only minor adjustments needed to the Isolated dry thunderstorm area across portions of the Northern Great Basin based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with only minor adjustments needed to the Isolated dry thunderstorm area across portions of the Northern Great Basin based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with only minor adjustments needed to the Isolated dry thunderstorm area across portions of the Northern Great Basin based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with only minor adjustments needed to the Isolated dry thunderstorm area across portions of the Northern Great Basin based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with only minor adjustments needed to the Isolated dry thunderstorm area across portions of the Northern Great Basin based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with only minor adjustments needed to the Isolated dry thunderstorm area across portions of the Northern Great Basin based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with only minor adjustments needed to the Isolated dry thunderstorm area across portions of the Northern Great Basin based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with only minor adjustments needed to the Isolated dry thunderstorm area across portions of the Northern Great Basin based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with only minor adjustments needed to the Isolated dry thunderstorm area across portions of the Northern Great Basin based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track, with only minor adjustments needed to the Isolated dry thunderstorm area across portions of the Northern Great Basin based on the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A persistent upper ridge centered over the Great Basin will remain in place through the forecast period, as several weak mid-level perturbations round the periphery of the anticyclone over the northern Rockies and Northwest. Abundant monsoonal moisture and subtle ascent from the passing shortwave troughs will allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Northern Great Basin... Along the northern periphery of the ridge, a mid-level shortwave trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest, bringing subtle ascent over the northern Great Basin. PWAT values of 0.8-1 inches will allow sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon and evening. Despite somewhat slow storm speeds and several days of sporadic wetting rainfall, a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will yield poor precipitation efficiency for any thunderstorms. These mostly dry thunderstorms over receptive fuels will pose an increased risk for lightning ignitions across portions of northern NV, western ID and extreme southeast OR. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 07/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible this afternoon into tonight across portions of the central Great Plains. ...Central/southern Great Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms over central/northern NE into SD ahead of a southeastward-migrating mid-level shortwave impulse. The disturbance is evident in water-vapor imagery and approaching the Black Hills vicinity. The mid- to upper-level anticyclone over the Great Basin/Desert Southwest will move little during the period, and aid in allowing the aforementioned disturbance to move southeastward into eastern NE/western IA later tonight. Morning surface analysis places a moist axis from western KS northward into west-central NE and SD with lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints. This adequately moist airmass will become moderately unstable by mid afternoon across southwest NE southward into extreme eastern CO and western KS (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). It seems plausible a southward-moving cluster will emerge from the midday ongoing thunderstorm activity over central NE and move into a boundary layer featuring steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Veering flow with height will support 35-45 kt effective shear and promote storm organization. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms over mainly parts of NE and SD. As additional storms develop, a coalescing into one or more clusters will likely evolve by late afternoon over the central Great Plains. Additionally, scattered storm development is expected near/east of the Front Range with coverage forecast to increase as storms move into a more moist environment over eastern CO. Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters is expected before an MCS evolves (perhaps from a merging of thunderstorm clusters) over western KS by this evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard later this afternoon through the late evening. As storms move farther southwest into central KS and parts of northwest OK/TX Panhandle later this evening, weaker instability and greater CINH will likely lead to a gradual decrease in storm intensity and severe risk. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 07/19/2024 Read more