Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur along/near parts of the central California Coast, mainly Monday night into early Tuesday morning. ...California... A large-scale upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West Coast. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will reach the central CA coast late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. DCVA associated with the disturbance will promote an increase in large-scale ascent and development of showers/thunderstorms. Expectedly, models still vary some regarding both moisture quality and buoyancy near central CA coast. Surface dewpoints will likely only rise to the 52-54 deg F range, but the contribution of mid-level cold air advection will result in buoyancy developing near the coast during the late overnight (08-12 UTC). A veering and strengthening wind profile in the boundary layer should support the potential for some transient updraft organization. Low-topped convection possibly evolving into 1 or 2 weakly rotating storms may pose a localized threat for isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Smith.. 01/08/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Weak downslope flow may promote brief locally elevated fire-weather conditions in the lee of the southern Rockies this afternoon. However, spotty fuels will keep concerns too low for probabilities. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern should be in place across the CONUS today, with a mid-level impulse expected to traverse the south-central U.S. and support dry downslope flow along the lee of the southern Rockies. Locally Elevated equivalent dry and windy conditions are possible across portions of the southern High Plains, particularly northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado and far western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. The sparse nature of overlapping Elevated surface wind/RH and mediocre fuel status suggests fire weather highlights are not currently needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Discussion... A progressive low-amplitude flow regime will continue to characterize the upper-level pattern over the CONUS through tonight, highlighted by several minoring impulses east of the Rockies while a somewhat more substantial upper trough nears the west Coast late tonight. Initially, thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of the Deep South and middle Gulf Coast near the east/southeastward-advancing cold front. However, the coverage of lightning-producing convection will tend to diminish today and become increasingly relegated to the Gulf of Mexico. One exception is that thunderstorms are expected to increase late tonight near the coastal Carolinas and particularly over the open Atlantic waters. The primary moisture-rich warm sector should remain offshore, but increasing low-level moisture/instability and strong deep-layer shear could allow for a few strong/rotating storms near coastal North Carolina late tonight. In the West, as a shortwave trough continues to spread northeastward over the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible today across the Sierra Nevada and/or coastal northern California/western Oregon, although thunderstorm potential and coverage will diminish by late afternoon/evening. An additional round of thunderstorm potential will materialize late tonight in association with the warm conveyor ahead of the next West Coast-approaching upper trough. However, much of the nocturnal thunderstorm potential should remain focused offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/08/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Jan 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and/or thunderstorm wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across southeast Texas including the middle/upper Texas coast. ...Discussion... No change was made to the previous convective outlook. The forecast seems on track. ..Smith.. 01/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2023/ ...Southeast Texas including Middle/Upper Texas Coast... Although 12z observed soundings from Brownsville/Corpus Christi and more recent GPS-derived precipitable water (PW) data reflect PW values less than 1 inch, steady air mass modification and a low-level influx of moisture will continue to occur over the western Gulf of Mexico and across the Texas coastal plain through evening. At the same time, a cold front will continue to advance southeastward across the ArkLaTex toward the ArkLaMiss and across much of east and central/south Texas through tonight. Isolated storms are expected to develop by late afternoon, with initial development expected particularly across far east/southeast Texas near the cold front. This is where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will tend to coincide with somewhat weaker capping aloft. Although a few weak/transient supercells could occur, multicells should be most common as storms develop and increase through early evening. Some stronger thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible near/just ahead of the front, with severe hail otherwise possible across the region. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 7 19:49:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 7 19:49:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Jan 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Weak downslope flow near 10-15 mph is possible across portions of the southern and central High Plains D2/Sunday. However, limited fuels and cooler temperatures will keep fire-weather concerns quiescent through the forecast period. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level trough will approach the Plains states tomorrow/Sunday, promoting dry downslope flow across the lee of the central and southern Rockies. By Sunday afternoon, locally Elevated conditions are possible, particularly across the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains in southern Colorado and some lower terrain areas in east-central New Mexico. Given the limited spatial extent of the Elevated conditions and poorly receptive fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A couple of mid-level disturbances will move across parts of the CONUS on Sunday. A mid-level trough initially over the mid to lower MS Valley will move east to the Mid-Atlantic states and Southeast during the period. A surface cold front will push southeast across the lower MS Valley during the day. Showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly near the front. Weak instability will limit updraft strength and stronger storm development. Farther west, a lead mid-level shortwave trough over northern CA will move northeast into the interior Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies and weaken. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible over central-northern CA and along the coast of OR. ..Smith.. 01/07/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperatures and limited fuel availability will keep fire-weather concerns minimal over the CONUS. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will approach the Plains states while a mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast today. Cooler temperatures will settle in behind a cold front across the Southern Plains. The cooler temperatures and mediocre fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and/or thunderstorm wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across southeast Texas including the middle/upper Texas coast. ...Southeast Texas including Middle/Upper Texas Coast... Although 12z observed soundings from Brownsville/Corpus Christi and more recent GPS-derived precipitable water (PW) data reflect PW values less than 1 inch, steady air mass modification and a low-level influx of moisture will continue to occur over the western Gulf of Mexico and across the Texas coastal plain through evening. At the same time, a cold front will continue to advance southeastward across the ArkLaTex toward the ArkLaMiss and across much of east and central/south Texas through tonight. Isolated storms are expected to develop by late afternoon, with initial development expected particularly across far east/southeast Texas near the cold front. This is where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will tend to coincide with somewhat weaker capping aloft. Although a few weak/transient supercells could occur, multicells should be most common as storms develop and increase through early evening. Some stronger thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible near/just ahead of the front, with severe hail otherwise possible across the region. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/07/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous outlook. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Mosier.. 01/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 06 2023/ ...Discussion... A progressive/low-amplitude upper-level flow pattern will exist over the CONUS through tonight. Surface cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains will influence air mass modification and gradual low-level moistening over the western Gulf of Mexico into south/east Texas, but prevalent mid-level capping will preclude thunderstorm development within this regime through tonight. Elsewhere, some thunderstorms will continue to occur today in the Atlantic waters 100+ miles off the coast of Long Island/southern New England. A few lightning flashes could occur late this afternoon into tonight along the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California, but the overall potential appears quite low (less than 10 percent) and primarily focused offshore. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 6 19:39:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 6 19:39:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Weak winds and non-critical relative humidity across the southern Plains behind a cold front tomorrow/Saturday will keep fire weather concerns minimal. See previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie/Lyons.. 01/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CST Thu Jan 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move toward the southeast states as upper ridging dominates the southern Plains and a second mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow/Saturday. At the surface though, a cold front will continue to sweep across the southern Plains. Cooler surface conditions atop marginally receptive fuels suggests that fire weather highlights are not currently needed anywhere across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Jan 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is expected to move from the central Plains eastward through the Mid MS Valley and into the Lower OH Valley on Saturday. Surface low associated with this shortwave is also expected to move eastward, from its early period position over eastern OK through the Mid-South. An attendant cold front will push southeastward across central/east TX, southern AR, and western LA. By early Sunday morning, this front is expected to extend from western TN southwestward into deep south TX. Modest moisture return will precede this front, with associated buoyancy contributing to showers and thunderstorms as the front moves southeastward. The stronger low to mid-level flow will be displaced to the north of the warm sector, likely limiting storm severity. Additionally, much of the thunderstorm activity should occur behind the front. Even so, relatively cold mid-level temperatures could still result in a few stronger storms capable of hail, especially later in the period over the middle/upper TX coast as another southern-stream shortwave trough approaches the region. Farther west, a series of shortwave troughs will impact the West Coast, including one early in the period across OR/northern CA and another near the end of the period across northern and central CA. A few lightning flashes a possible within the deeper convective cores associated with these waves, particularly the second wave which has colder mid-level temperatures and greater buoyancy associated with it. ..Mosier.. 01/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Fri Jan 06 2023 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive/low-amplitude upper-level flow pattern will exist over the CONUS through tonight. Surface cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains will influence air mass modification and gradual low-level moistening over the western Gulf of Mexico into south/east Texas, but prevalent mid-level capping will preclude thunderstorm development within this regime through tonight. Elsewhere, some thunderstorms will continue to occur today in the Atlantic waters 100+ miles off the coast of Long Island/southern New England. A few lightning flashes could occur late this afternoon into tonight along the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California, but the overall potential appears quite low (less than 10 percent) and primarily focused offshore. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/06/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Fri Jan 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is largely on track. Expect far eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles to see spotty and transient elevated fire conditions, with gusts up to 20-25 kts and RH near 15-20% this afternoon. However, ERCs near seasonal averages prevent the introduction of Elevated risk areas. In south Florida, ERCs are near the 90th percentile, and RH is expected to be low (25-30%) this afternoon with diurnal mixing. However, weak winds will keep elevated fire risk localized. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Supinie/Lyons.. 01/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CST Thu Jan 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies and overspread portions of the south-central U.S. today, prompting surface low development across the southern Plains. To the west of the surface low, dry and breezy conditions should develop across the southern High Plains due to both gradient and downslope components of flow. 15-25 percent RH overlapping 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected by afternoon peaking heating across portions of far eastern New Mexico into western Texas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle area. While such conditions typically necessitate the introduction of Elevated highlights, fuels are marginally receptive (at best) to wildfire spread, so fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Thu Jan 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous discussion remains on track with no changes required. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show relatively weak signals for sustained elevated conditions across eastern NM/western TX away from prominent terrain features, suggesting that localized and/or transient elevated wind/RH conditions are probable. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ...Southern Florida... A northerly flow regime with 10-15 mph winds is expected Friday afternoon across southern FL. Strong diurnal warming/mixing coupled with dry down-peninsula flow may result in RH values falling into the 25-35% range. Fire weather concerns may emerge where elevated wind/RH conditions can overlap with modestly dry fuels over the region. ..Moore.. 01/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Thu Jan 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the southern High Plains by late afternoon Friday. A surface low is expected to develop in southeast Colorado and shift into southwestern Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma. Ahead of a Pacific cold front, dry and windy conditions are at least possible locally within parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Guidance continues to show a low probability of sustained overlap of strong winds and low RH. The strongest winds (15-25 mph) are likely to occur in northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. However, RH below 20% may be brief and fine fuels are somewhat less receptive with northward extent. Higher confidence in low RH exists in southeast New Mexico into the Permian Basin/South Plains, but winds may struggle to reach much more than 15 mph away from the terrain. Locally elevated conditions are probable for some parts of the region. Confidence in where several hours of these conditions will occur is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 5 19:05:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 5 19:05:02 UTC 2023.