Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Northern/central CA... A modest-amplitude shortwave trough will shift inland across CA this afternoon and into the northern Great Basin tonight. Cooler mid-level temperatures and steepening lapse rates may support very isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening. Scant buoyancy is expected owing to boundary-layer dew points only peaking in the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast and into the Central Valley. This in combination with increasingly veered low-level flow should mitigate potential for organized convection. ...South FL... Relatively low-topped convection persists in a pre-frontal convective band. Weak mid-level lapse rates in the 12Z observed and forecast soundings suggest convection will struggle to deepen in the absence of appreciable height falls this afternoon. It is plausible that no additional lightning will occur before convection shifts east/south of the peninsula this evening. ..Grams/Wendt.. 01/13/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made to the outlook. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will build across the central CONUS today with cool conditions for much of the eastern CONUS. Farther west, persistent troughing along the West Coast will continue to bring cool, wet conditions. Some warm and dry conditions are expected across the southern High Plains, but winds should remain light today. Therefore, fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW GPT TO 35 NW MOB TO 40 WSW SEM TO 20 NW SEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055 ..THORNTON..01/12/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-013-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-085-097-099-101-129- 131-122040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BUTLER CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA LOWNDES MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-113-122040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA MSC039-131-122040- Read more

WW 20 TORNADO AL FL MS CW 121620Z - 122300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 20 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1020 AM until 500 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to spread east-northeastward and tend to intensify into this afternoon, with at least some potential for several storms including a tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Mobile AL to 30 miles south southeast of Montgomery AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...WW 17...WW 18...WW 19... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RMG TO 25 E CHA TO 10 ESE TYS. ..THORNTON..01/12/23 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC015-057-085-111-115-123-129-187-213-227-291-122040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CHEROKEE DAWSON FANNIN FLOYD GILMER GORDON LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS UNION NCC039-122040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE TNC139-122040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POLK Read more

WW 19 TORNADO GA NC TN 121600Z - 122200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 19 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Georgia Far western North Carolina Southeast Tennessee * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 1100 AM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of storms will pose a risk for damaging winds and/or a tornado through early/mid-afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles south southwest of Chattanooga TN to 65 miles east of Chattanooga TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...WW 17...WW 18... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0056 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Areas affected...southeastern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 121919Z - 122115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Tornado threat will increase through the afternoon. Watch issuance likely needed soon. DISCUSSION...As of 19z, an established line of thunderstorms was ongoing across portions of Alabama, with more discrete cells located ahead of and south of the line in southwestern Alabama and Mississippi. Across southeastern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle, air mass destabilization from daytime heating has led to surface based CAPE values around 1500 J/kg. KEOX (Ft. Rucker) has seen an increase in 0-1km and 0-3 km storm relative helicity in the last few hours as 850 mb flow has increased to around 40-50 kts. 0-1km storm relative helicity is currently around 230 m2/s2. This environment is expected to persist and will support the risk for tornadoes, especially within any discrete cells that can maintain supercell characteristics ahead of the main line. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30618677 30988662 31288623 31608584 31978532 32168497 32228469 32188440 31958424 31578422 31208419 30908424 30598447 30388465 30238484 30128503 30048541 29998586 30208641 30618677 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... The southern Plains will be in northwesterly flow aloft throughout the day tomorrow, which will promote surface high pressure across the region. Guidance suggests diurnal mixing will drive RH into the 15-25% range across eastern New Mexico and west Texas during the afternoon atop dry 1- and 10-hr fuels. However, generally weak winds around the surface anticyclone prevent the introduction of any Elevated areas this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0055 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 18... FOR CENTRAL AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0055 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Areas affected...central AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 18... Valid 121900Z - 122000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 18 continues. SUMMARY...A strong to intense tornado (~EF3) is likely ongoing across central AL and after tornado demise, a wind-damage risk will likely continue into east-central AL. DISCUSSION...KBMX radar imagery shows an intense low-level mesocyclone moving through an adequately moist/moderately buoyant airmass across central AL. SPC data analytics indicates a strong/intense tornado is likely ongoing across Autauga County, AL. The area VAD/s show large hodographs with 300 m2/s2 0-0.5 km effective SRH. The strong shear/buoyancy will likely aid in sustaining the supercell after eventual tornado demise once the squall line overtakes the supercell. Nonetheless, a significant wind-damage threat and some tornado risk will likely continue into eastern AL through the mid afternoon. ..Smith.. 01/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX... LAT...LON 32638663 32998588 33028569 32888557 32778559 32488627 32508662 32638663 Read more

WW 0021 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..01/12/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-027-029-081-087-109-111-113-123-121940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS CLAY CLEBURNE LEE MACON PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA GAC011-013-035-045-053-059-063-067-077-079-089-097-113-117-121- 135-139-143-145-149-151-157-159-171-195-197-199-207-211-215-217- 219-223-231-233-247-255-259-263-269-281-285-293-297-307-311- 121940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARROW BUTTS CARROLL CHATTAHOOCHEE CLARKE CLAYTON COBB COWETA CRAWFORD DEKALB DOUGLAS FAYETTE FORSYTH FULTON GWINNETT HALL HARALSON HARRIS HEARD HENRY Read more

WW 21 TORNADO AL GA 121805Z - 130000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 21 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Alabama Western and northern Georgia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Broken band of semi-discrete storms will move east-northeastward across east-central Alabama into west-central/northern Georgia this afternoon. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Atlanta GA to 10 miles south southeast of Troy AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16...WW 17...WW 18...WW 19...WW 20... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LEX TO 30 NNW JKL TO 25 WSW HTS TO 5 WSW CRW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054 ..MOORE..01/12/23 ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC025-051-063-065-109-115-121-125-127-129-147-153-175-189-197- 199-203-231-235-237-121940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREATHITT CLAY ELLIOTT ESTILL JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAUREL LAWRENCE LEE MCCREARY MAGOFFIN MORGAN OWSLEY POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE WVC099-121940- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WAYNE Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MCB TO 15 WSW PIB TO 35 ENE MEI TO 30 WNW GAD TO 50 NW CHA. ..THORNTON..01/12/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC007-015-019-021-037-049-055-065-071-095-105-115-117-121- 121840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB CALHOUN CHEROKEE CHILTON COOSA DEKALB ETOWAH HALE JACKSON MARSHALL PERRY ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA MSC023-035-073-121840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE FORREST LAMAR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 17 TORNADO AL MS TN 121255Z - 121900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 17 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and central Alabama Central and eastern Mississippi Exreme southern middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 655 AM until 100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken band of pre-frontal storms will increase in intensity through the day while spreading eastward from Mississippi into Alabama. The more intense supercells could produce tornadoes, including a strong tornado or two, along with isolated large hail. The threat for damaging winds up to 75 mph will increase through the day as some upscale growth occurs and bowing segments evolve through the day. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Huntsville AL to 45 miles west of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26045. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Florida Peninsula and parts of California Friday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A highly amplified flow field aloft will prevail across the U.S. Friday, as a trough over the East maintains intensity as it moves slowly toward the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a short-wave trough -- within a broader area of cyclonic flow over the eastern Pacific -- will move inland and weaken with time, though additional/embedded short-wave troughing offshore will maintain the overall amplitude of the cyclonic pattern. In between the two troughs, sharp ridging will move eastward across the Rockies and into the Plains through the end of the period. As the eastern upper trough advances, a surface cold front -- trailing from a deep low moving northeastward across New England -- will quickly clear the middle and southern Atlantic Coast region early in the day. The trailing portion of this front will move steadily southward across the Florida Peninsula through the day, likely clearing south Florida and the Keys by early evening. Ahead of this front, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely shift southward across Florida during the day. Though a stronger storm cannot be ruled out, any severe potential appears to be quite low -- insufficient to warrant inclusion of any severe-weather probabilities. Elsewhere, the only other potential for thunder evident within the CONUS will be across the northern and central California coastal areas, and possibly into the central Valley, as the aforementioned, weakening short-wave trough moves inland. ..Goss.. 01/12/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast. Several damaging wind gusts are likely, though occasional bouts of large hail and at least a few tornadoes are also expected. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast States... A wavy/modestly broken quasi-linear line of strong/severe convection extends from eastern Tennessee southwestward into northeast/central Alabama and into southeast Mississippi, with much of it effectively ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints are commonly in the low 60s F and this will continue to adequately support severe-caliber storms in the presence of relatively cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. This is well-represented by a special 15z observed sounding from Birmingham AL. A mixed convective mode is expected to persist regionally, although somewhat more discrete storms are more viable across central/southern Alabama and southeast Mississippi/Florida Panhandle owing to cloud breaks and more modest forcing for ascent. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and some low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) will support this mix of supercells and bowing segments. Damaging winds will be the most common threat, and semi-discrete supercells in the band will pose the threat for tornadoes, along with embedded circulations in line segments. The storms will spread eastward into/across Georgia and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas this evening, before weakening as the convection outpaces the unstable warm sector. ...Kentucky/Lower Ohio Valley into western/northern Tennessee... The fast-moving convective line from earlier this morning has largely diminished in intensity as it moved into a more stable air mass toward the Ohio/West Virginia border. While semi-plentiful/multiple corridors of convection will tend to further hinder destabilization, a pre-frontal reservoir of instability could influence additional severe storm development particularly across southern/eastern Kentucky into western/middle Tennessee this afternoon. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/12/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...South Texas... In the dry post-frontal airmass across deep south TX, recent model guidance has trended stronger with surface winds and lower with RH over the last several runs. Short-hour fuels have also responded more robustly than previously expected given dry and windy conditions over the preceding 24 hours. As such, brief elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions, with wind gusts to 30 mph and RH near or below 20%, are possible across south Texas. A small Elevated are was added to the Rio Grande Valley for the best overlap of dry/gusty conditions and favorable fuels. See the previous discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level flow pattern today will be characterized by an amplifying trough over the central and eastern CONUS, with an associated surface cyclone over the Ohio River valley. Northerly flow will push a cold front into the Gulf of Mexico by midday. In far south Texas, expect diurnal mixing to result in RH near 20-25% and gusts to 15-20 mph with localized areas of RH below 20% and gusts to 20-25 mph near the Rio Grande. 1-hr fuel moisture in the region is near 3-5%, indicating fine fuels are receptive to fire spread. However, the localized, transient nature of the elevated fire risk will prevent the introduction of Elevated areas this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HOP TO 30 W BWG TO 25 NNW BWG TO 45 E OWB TO 25 SSW SDF TO 20 SE SDF TO 15 NW LEX. ..THORNTON..01/12/23 ATTN...WFO...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-005-009-017-021-045-049-053-057-061-067-079-085-087- 093-099-113-123-137-141-151-155-167-169-171-179-181-207-213-217- 227-229-239-121640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON FAYETTE GARRARD GRAYSON GREEN HARDIN HART JESSAMINE LARUE LINCOLN LOGAN MADISON MARION MERCER METCALFE MONROE NELSON NICHOLAS RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR WARREN WASHINGTON WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO THE OZARKS...AND EASTWARD TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight and early Thursday morning from northern Arkansas into parts of the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley. ...Discussion... Aside from a nudge northward of the risk area across southeastern Missouri, no changes to the outlook appear necessary at this time, with current forecast reasoning still reflective of expectations. Showers and slightly elevated storms will likely develop near/after midnight, initially over the Ozarks vicinity, and then expanding eastward across the Mid Mississippi and into the Lower Ohio Valley region, where limited -- but all-hazards -- severe potential may evolve with a few of the strongest storms. ..Goss.. 01/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2023/ ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough will emerge from the southern Rockies/southern High Plains today and reach the Ozarks/ArkLaTex late tonight, with surface cyclogenesis occurring tonight from the Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley in tandem with a northward-expanding warm/moist sector. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F will become established late tonight as far north as the Mid-South/western Kentucky vicinity. The warm sector will be capped until late tonight, with the moistening occurring beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates. By around 06z tonight, the low-level moistening and forcing for ascent within the left-exit region of the strong mid/upper-level jet will support thunderstorm development across northern Arkansas/far southern Missouri. Storms will subsequently move northeastward toward western Kentucky and other parts of the lower Ohio Valley by 09-12z. The steep mid-level lapse rates (>8 C/km), MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt will support slightly elevated convection (mix of clusters and some supercell structures) capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging winds late tonight and early Thursday. Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 11 19:36:01 UTC 2023.