Severe Storms

WW 0638 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0638 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 638 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA CW 182310Z - 190600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 710 PM until 200 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms capable of wind damage and possibly some hail will continue south-southeastward across the region this evening within a hot/moist environment. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Pensacola FL to 30 miles east southeast of Vidalia GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...WW 635...WW 636...WW 637... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Guyer Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 18 22:00:17 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A prominent omega block is forecast to reside over the central CONUS through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast through next week. Enhanced flow aloft, punctuated by several passing embedded shortwave troughs, will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. By mid to late week, a stronger upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. ...Great Basin... As the upper trough over the Pacific Northwest remains in place, a belt of stronger midlevel flow should persist over parts of the western Great Basin. Several embedded disturbances will pass trough the flow through early next week. With the enhanced mid-level flow in place, gusty downslope winds are possible over areas of low humidity and dry fuels. Widespread 10-20 mph surface winds and RH below 20% should support elevated and occasional critical fire-weather concerns. The highest confidence in the stronger sustained winds is expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday as more organized upper-level trough passages, bolstering southwesterly flow aloft. Through the end of the week the approaching upper low will continue to move southeastward, ushering in a cooler and wetter period with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend. Some dry lightning will be possible with these initial storms, though moisture should continue to increase with the slow moving upper low. Lingering stronger flow aloft may also support periods of dry and breezy conditions through the weekend. However, the increase in moisture appears to favor a general decrease in fire-weather potential toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Northwest... With persistent troughing in place over the Northwest through the next several days, somewhat stronger southwesterly flow aloft is expected over parts of the eastern Cascades and Columbia Basin through the first part of next week. Some downslope/gap winds could support periods of dry and breezy conditions across OR and WA through mid week, especially with the stronger upper-level troughs expected D3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. Sporadic lightning will also be possible as early as Tuesday with mid-level moisture and ascent from the approaching trough moving onshore. Confidence in more widespread storm coverage is greatest later in the week as the upper low approaches. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1948 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634... FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1948 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...portions of the mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 634... Valid 182030Z - 182200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 634 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected to persist into the evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed within the unstable airmass across eastern Pennsylvania and Delaware and are moving into New Jersey and southwest New York. These storms have been mostly multicellular in nature with a few reports of damaging winds and large hail. These storms may be somewhat more productive in the next 1 to 2 hours as they move into a hotter airmass across New Jersey which was not impacted by morning clouds. The airmass continues to destabilize to the lee of the Appalachians where temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 80s. Short term guidance (18Z HRRR and hires NAM) continues to suggest an additional round of thunderstorms may develop this evening and move into the I-95 corridor near sunset. ..Bentley.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 41087720 41477682 41907578 41897500 41707421 41427361 40887364 40557369 40437380 40077400 39707406 39297437 38907480 38677491 38267503 37987518 37717550 37257599 36817638 36667709 36727769 36917822 37487813 38427820 38877835 39407847 41087720 Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC073-105-181-189-245-182240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA ELBERT LINCOLN MCDUFFIE RICHMOND NCC001-003-007-025-033-035-037-045-051-057-059-063-065-067-069- 071-077-081-083-085-093-097-101-105-109-119-123-125-127-131-135- 145-151-153-157-159-163-165-167-169-179-181-183-185-191-195-197- 182240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM CLEVELAND CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GASTON GRANVILLE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE IREDELL JOHNSTON LEE LINCOLN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC073-105-181-189-245-182240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA ELBERT LINCOLN MCDUFFIE RICHMOND NCC001-003-007-025-033-035-037-045-051-057-059-063-065-067-069- 071-077-081-083-085-093-097-101-105-109-119-123-125-127-131-135- 145-151-153-157-159-163-165-167-169-179-181-183-185-191-195-197- 182240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM CLEVELAND CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GASTON GRANVILLE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE IREDELL JOHNSTON LEE LINCOLN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...RAH...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC073-105-181-189-245-182240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA ELBERT LINCOLN MCDUFFIE RICHMOND NCC001-003-007-025-033-035-037-045-051-057-059-063-065-067-069- 071-077-081-083-085-093-097-101-105-109-119-123-125-127-131-135- 145-151-153-157-159-163-165-167-169-179-181-183-185-191-195-197- 182240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM CLEVELAND CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GASTON GRANVILLE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE IREDELL JOHNSTON LEE LINCOLN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 635 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC VA CW 181925Z - 190200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Georgia Central North Carolina Central South Carolina Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forming from central Virginia into the western Carolinas. These storms will grow in number through the afternoon, with several strong to severe storms expected. Damaging winds are the primary threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast of Richmond VA to 40 miles west of Columbia SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more