Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0528 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 528 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MKT TO 25 SSW MSP TO 20 ESE MSP TO 35 ENE MSP TO 45 NW EAU. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 528 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC049-131-140840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOODHUE RICE WIC005-011-017-033-035-093-109-140840- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE PIERCE ST. CROIX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0528 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 528 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MKT TO 25 SSW MSP TO 20 ESE MSP TO 35 ENE MSP TO 45 NW EAU. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 528 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC049-131-140840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOODHUE RICE WIC005-011-017-033-035-093-109-140840- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE PIERCE ST. CROIX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0528 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 528 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MKT TO 25 SSW MSP TO 20 ESE MSP TO 35 ENE MSP TO 45 NW EAU. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 528 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC049-131-140840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOODHUE RICE WIC005-011-017-033-035-093-109-140840- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE PIERCE ST. CROIX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0528 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 528 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MKT TO 25 SSW MSP TO 20 ESE MSP TO 35 ENE MSP TO 45 NW EAU. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 528 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC049-131-140840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOODHUE RICE WIC005-011-017-033-035-093-109-140840- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE PIERCE ST. CROIX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0528 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 528 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MKT TO 25 SSW MSP TO 20 ESE MSP TO 35 ENE MSP TO 45 NW EAU. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 528 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC049-131-140840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOODHUE RICE WIC005-011-017-033-035-093-109-140840- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON BUFFALO CHIPPEWA DUNN EAU CLAIRE PIERCE ST. CROIX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 528 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 140255Z - 140900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 528 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Minnesota Far West-Central Wisconsin * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 955 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A small bowing complex of thunderstorms should move southeastward this evening and overnight, posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph. Occasionally stronger gusts up to 75 mph appear possible, along with isolated large hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Alexandria MN to 20 miles south southeast of Minneapolis MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 522...WW 523...WW 524...WW 525...WW 526...WW 527... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1608 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1608 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...Western Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 140556Z - 140700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and wind damage threat may continue for several more hours across parts of southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin. A new weather watch to the southeast of WW 528 will likely need to be considered. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Minneapolis shows a cluster of strong to severe storms over southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Most of the storms are multicells, although a supercell is ongoing just to the northwest of Minneapolis. These storms are located along an gradient of moisture and instability that is oriented from north-northwest to south-southeast in the vicinity of Minneapolis. The storms are likely being supported by a minor shortwave trough that is moving through the upper Mississippi Valley. In addition, a maximum in low-level flow is analyzed just to the west of this cluster. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Minneapolis has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots with about 20 knots of speed shear from the surface to about 4 km AGL. This, combined with the moderate instability, should continue to support a severe threat over the next several hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45299197 45559277 45679338 45659381 45489399 45339400 45019376 44699321 44419267 44089202 43909172 43869138 43959104 44219080 44529072 44909111 45299197 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more