Severe Storms

WW 0634 Status Updates
240- STATUS REPORT ON WW 634 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 634 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-182240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-182240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-182240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK Read more

WW 0634 Status Updates
240- STATUS REPORT ON WW 634 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 634 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-182240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-182240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-182240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK Read more

WW 0634 Status Updates
240- STATUS REPORT ON WW 634 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 634 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-182240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-182240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-182240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK Read more

WW 634 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA WV CW 181800Z - 190200Z
CWZ000-190200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon across the watch area. The more intense storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east of Charlottesville VA to 40 miles east northeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CBM TO 25 NNE BHM TO 25 NW ATL TO 5 N AHN TO 20 S AND. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-007-011-015-017-021-027-029-037-047-051-057-063-065- 073-075-081-085-087-091-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121- 123-125-127-182240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE FAYETTE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER GAC009-013-021-023-035-045-053-059-063-067-077-079-081-089-091- 093-097-113-121-125-133-135-141-143-145-149-151-153-157-159-163- 167-169-171-175-193-195-197-199-207-211-215-217-219-221-223-225- 231-233-235-237-247-249-255-259-261-263-265-269-285-289-293-297- Read more

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N CBM TO 25 NNE BHM TO 25 NW ATL TO 5 N AHN TO 20 S AND. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-007-011-015-017-021-027-029-037-047-051-057-063-065- 073-075-081-085-087-091-101-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121- 123-125-127-182240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS ELMORE FAYETTE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONTGOMERY PERRY PICKENS PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER GAC009-013-021-023-035-045-053-059-063-067-077-079-081-089-091- 093-097-113-121-125-133-135-141-143-145-149-151-153-157-159-163- 167-169-171-175-193-195-197-199-207-211-215-217-219-221-223-225- 231-233-235-237-247-249-255-259-261-263-265-269-285-289-293-297- Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-007-011-013-017-019-025-029-033-039-041-043-045-047- 051-053-059-069-071-079-083-085-087-095-097-103-105-107-109-113- 115-117-119-125-127-131-143-149-182240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BENTON BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON JOHNSON LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL LAC035-065-067-083-123-182240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...TSA...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-007-011-013-017-019-025-029-033-039-041-043-045-047- 051-053-059-069-071-079-083-085-087-095-097-103-105-107-109-113- 115-117-119-125-127-131-143-149-182240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BENTON BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS DESHA DREW FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON JOHNSON LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE MADISON MONROE MONTGOMERY OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON YELL LAC035-065-067-083-123-182240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1947 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 1947 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...central Arkansas...northern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181953Z - 182100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to increase in coverage through the afternoon with potential for large hail and damaging wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is likely across central Arkansas into northern Mississippi over the next 1-2 hours as a cold front sags south through time. The air mass ahead of the front is characterized by as sharp MLCAPE gradient around 1000-3000 J/kg with temperatures near 100 F and dew points in the low to mid 70s. A belt of deep layer shear around 40-50 kts and the moist and unstable air mass will support multicell clusters, capable of damaging wind and instances of severe hail. A watch will likely be needed for portions of this area to cover this threat soon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA... LAT...LON 33279179 32658985 32598899 32898866 33148849 33388848 33918832 34128845 34318965 34799083 35359212 35349216 36049315 36419410 36049457 35059446 34109355 33389217 33279179 Read more

MD 1945 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1945 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Central/Southern Virginia and the Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181858Z - 182100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are likely this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cu across much of the region from central/southern Virginia southward into the Carolinas. Thunderstorm development is likely to begin in these regions over the next 1-2 hours. A few cells have developed across western North Carolina near the higher terrain. The air mass east of this development is characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg with temperatures in the upper 80s-90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. This moist and unstable air mass will support multicell clusters capable of downbursts. A watch will likely be needed to cover this threat soon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE... GSP... LAT...LON 33378181 33688201 33978199 35348160 36008126 36708076 37018039 37337988 37577930 37967789 38127730 37957664 37767606 37717601 35957705 34207883 32728138 33378181 Read more

MD 1946 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1946 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...northern Alabama...northern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181921Z - 182045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to increase in coverage through the afternoon with potential for large hail and damaging wind. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show deepening cu across much of northern Alabama and Georgia, with a few cells developing over the last 30 min to an hour. Thunderstorm development is likely to expand southward in coverage across these regions over the next 1-2 hours as a cold front sags south through time. The air mass ahead of the front is characterized by MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg with temperatures in the upper 80s - mid 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. A belt of deep layer shear around 35-40 kts and the moist and unstable air mass will support multicell clusters, capable of downbursts and instances of severe hail. A watch will likely be needed to cover this threat soon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33528891 34388768 34448666 34448588 34468471 34398380 34358292 34118275 33778266 33458263 33078264 32868264 32818267 32378308 31788505 31908645 32088756 32148810 32348855 32528870 32738883 33018890 33438890 33528891 Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...20Z Update... The forecast generally remains on track, and very minor changes were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk was trimmed across much of northeast/eastern KS -- behind a remnant MCS now tracking southeastward across southeast KS. Large uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of these storms through the afternoon, though strong diurnal heating/increasing instability and favorable deep-layer shear could still favor an eventual increase in intensity. From the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic, clusters of storms continue to intensify and track southeastward and east-northeastward respectively, posing a risk of damaging winds and isolated severe hail. For details, reference MCDs 1945, 1946, 1947, and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 634, 635, and 636. Farther west, thunderstorms will continue spreading northward across parts of the Great Basin, posing a risk of damaging winds. Reference MCD 1944 for more details. ..Weinman.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. Read more