Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEVADA... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The elevated area over portions of eastern NV was trimmed slightly to account for prior precipitation. Critical fire-weather concerns will remain possible with gusty winds and low humidity over central portions of NV. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin. While fuels are not as dry here (50-60th percentile seasonal ERCs), some drying from gusty downslope winds of 15-20 mph and RH below 15% may support a risk for elevated fire-weather potential for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in the broader cyclonic flow aloft will traverse the West Coast and impinge on the Pacific Northwest while an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. The departure of upper support will result in somewhat weaker isallobaric flow from the lee of the Cascades into the Great Basin compared to yesterday. Nonetheless, some residual gradient flow, combined with robust boundary layer mixing, will support dry and windy conditions during the afternoon to the lee of the Sierra into the western Great Basin, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Critical highlights remain where guidance consensus shows the greatest chance of 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEVADA... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The elevated area over portions of eastern NV was trimmed slightly to account for prior precipitation. Critical fire-weather concerns will remain possible with gusty winds and low humidity over central portions of NV. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin. While fuels are not as dry here (50-60th percentile seasonal ERCs), some drying from gusty downslope winds of 15-20 mph and RH below 15% may support a risk for elevated fire-weather potential for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in the broader cyclonic flow aloft will traverse the West Coast and impinge on the Pacific Northwest while an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. The departure of upper support will result in somewhat weaker isallobaric flow from the lee of the Cascades into the Great Basin compared to yesterday. Nonetheless, some residual gradient flow, combined with robust boundary layer mixing, will support dry and windy conditions during the afternoon to the lee of the Sierra into the western Great Basin, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Critical highlights remain where guidance consensus shows the greatest chance of 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEVADA... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The elevated area over portions of eastern NV was trimmed slightly to account for prior precipitation. Critical fire-weather concerns will remain possible with gusty winds and low humidity over central portions of NV. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin. While fuels are not as dry here (50-60th percentile seasonal ERCs), some drying from gusty downslope winds of 15-20 mph and RH below 15% may support a risk for elevated fire-weather potential for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in the broader cyclonic flow aloft will traverse the West Coast and impinge on the Pacific Northwest while an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. The departure of upper support will result in somewhat weaker isallobaric flow from the lee of the Cascades into the Great Basin compared to yesterday. Nonetheless, some residual gradient flow, combined with robust boundary layer mixing, will support dry and windy conditions during the afternoon to the lee of the Sierra into the western Great Basin, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Critical highlights remain where guidance consensus shows the greatest chance of 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEVADA... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The elevated area over portions of eastern NV was trimmed slightly to account for prior precipitation. Critical fire-weather concerns will remain possible with gusty winds and low humidity over central portions of NV. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin. While fuels are not as dry here (50-60th percentile seasonal ERCs), some drying from gusty downslope winds of 15-20 mph and RH below 15% may support a risk for elevated fire-weather potential for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in the broader cyclonic flow aloft will traverse the West Coast and impinge on the Pacific Northwest while an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. The departure of upper support will result in somewhat weaker isallobaric flow from the lee of the Cascades into the Great Basin compared to yesterday. Nonetheless, some residual gradient flow, combined with robust boundary layer mixing, will support dry and windy conditions during the afternoon to the lee of the Sierra into the western Great Basin, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Critical highlights remain where guidance consensus shows the greatest chance of 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEVADA... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The elevated area over portions of eastern NV was trimmed slightly to account for prior precipitation. Critical fire-weather concerns will remain possible with gusty winds and low humidity over central portions of NV. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin. While fuels are not as dry here (50-60th percentile seasonal ERCs), some drying from gusty downslope winds of 15-20 mph and RH below 15% may support a risk for elevated fire-weather potential for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in the broader cyclonic flow aloft will traverse the West Coast and impinge on the Pacific Northwest while an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. The departure of upper support will result in somewhat weaker isallobaric flow from the lee of the Cascades into the Great Basin compared to yesterday. Nonetheless, some residual gradient flow, combined with robust boundary layer mixing, will support dry and windy conditions during the afternoon to the lee of the Sierra into the western Great Basin, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Critical highlights remain where guidance consensus shows the greatest chance of 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEVADA... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The elevated area over portions of eastern NV was trimmed slightly to account for prior precipitation. Critical fire-weather concerns will remain possible with gusty winds and low humidity over central portions of NV. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin. While fuels are not as dry here (50-60th percentile seasonal ERCs), some drying from gusty downslope winds of 15-20 mph and RH below 15% may support a risk for elevated fire-weather potential for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in the broader cyclonic flow aloft will traverse the West Coast and impinge on the Pacific Northwest while an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. The departure of upper support will result in somewhat weaker isallobaric flow from the lee of the Cascades into the Great Basin compared to yesterday. Nonetheless, some residual gradient flow, combined with robust boundary layer mixing, will support dry and windy conditions during the afternoon to the lee of the Sierra into the western Great Basin, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Critical highlights remain where guidance consensus shows the greatest chance of 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEVADA... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The elevated area over portions of eastern NV was trimmed slightly to account for prior precipitation. Critical fire-weather concerns will remain possible with gusty winds and low humidity over central portions of NV. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin. While fuels are not as dry here (50-60th percentile seasonal ERCs), some drying from gusty downslope winds of 15-20 mph and RH below 15% may support a risk for elevated fire-weather potential for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in the broader cyclonic flow aloft will traverse the West Coast and impinge on the Pacific Northwest while an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. The departure of upper support will result in somewhat weaker isallobaric flow from the lee of the Cascades into the Great Basin compared to yesterday. Nonetheless, some residual gradient flow, combined with robust boundary layer mixing, will support dry and windy conditions during the afternoon to the lee of the Sierra into the western Great Basin, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Critical highlights remain where guidance consensus shows the greatest chance of 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEVADA... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The elevated area over portions of eastern NV was trimmed slightly to account for prior precipitation. Critical fire-weather concerns will remain possible with gusty winds and low humidity over central portions of NV. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in the lee of the Sierra and northern Great Basin. While fuels are not as dry here (50-60th percentile seasonal ERCs), some drying from gusty downslope winds of 15-20 mph and RH below 15% may support a risk for elevated fire-weather potential for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in the broader cyclonic flow aloft will traverse the West Coast and impinge on the Pacific Northwest while an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. The departure of upper support will result in somewhat weaker isallobaric flow from the lee of the Cascades into the Great Basin compared to yesterday. Nonetheless, some residual gradient flow, combined with robust boundary layer mixing, will support dry and windy conditions during the afternoon to the lee of the Sierra into the western Great Basin, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Critical highlights remain where guidance consensus shows the greatest chance of 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more