Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS. Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across the Midwest. ...Midwest... Rich Gulf moisture will become well established across the Midwest by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain. Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon. However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1 period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until mesoscale details become more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS. Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across the Midwest. ...Midwest... Rich Gulf moisture will become well established across the Midwest by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain. Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon. However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1 period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until mesoscale details become more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS. Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across the Midwest. ...Midwest... Rich Gulf moisture will become well established across the Midwest by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain. Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon. However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1 period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until mesoscale details become more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low across Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma will start to fill and accelerate northeast as an open wave on Sunday. A low amplitude mid-level trough will remain centered across the western CONUS with several embedded mid-level impulses within moderate southwesterly flow from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level trough will become a cutoff low over the Gulf Stream and start to retrograde toward the New England coast late in the forecast period. Persistent southwesterly mid-level flow will result in lee troughing across the Plains and strengthening southerly surface flow. This will bring renewed Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... A surface low will likely be located somewhere across western South Dakota on Sunday and will only drift slightly east through the day. East of this surface low, southerly winds will increase low-level moisture with dewpoints increasing to the upper 60s/near 70 by 00Z. By late afternoon, a warm front is forecast to become better defined across north-central South Dakota which, in addition to the cold front/dryline, should be a source for thunderstorm development as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon/evening. Moderate flow associated with this mid-level shortwave trough should result in 35 to 40 knots of effective shear by late afternoon which would be sufficient for supercells. Moderate instability and moderate shear will support a large hail threat, while inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will also support a severe wind threat. The low-level jet axis is mostly southeast of the greatest upper-level support and thus, upscale growth into an MCS remains uncertain. However, storm coverage may be great enough for upscale growth into one or more MCSs which could maintain some severe weather threat into the overnight hours across southern Minnesota and western Iowa where the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 35 to 45 knots Sunday night. A Slight Risk has been introduced across South Dakota, in proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough, where greater storm coverage appears likely. Elsewhere, northeast to the Canadian border and farther south across Nebraska and northern Kansas, storm coverage remains more questionable, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low across Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma will start to fill and accelerate northeast as an open wave on Sunday. A low amplitude mid-level trough will remain centered across the western CONUS with several embedded mid-level impulses within moderate southwesterly flow from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level trough will become a cutoff low over the Gulf Stream and start to retrograde toward the New England coast late in the forecast period. Persistent southwesterly mid-level flow will result in lee troughing across the Plains and strengthening southerly surface flow. This will bring renewed Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... A surface low will likely be located somewhere across western South Dakota on Sunday and will only drift slightly east through the day. East of this surface low, southerly winds will increase low-level moisture with dewpoints increasing to the upper 60s/near 70 by 00Z. By late afternoon, a warm front is forecast to become better defined across north-central South Dakota which, in addition to the cold front/dryline, should be a source for thunderstorm development as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon/evening. Moderate flow associated with this mid-level shortwave trough should result in 35 to 40 knots of effective shear by late afternoon which would be sufficient for supercells. Moderate instability and moderate shear will support a large hail threat, while inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will also support a severe wind threat. The low-level jet axis is mostly southeast of the greatest upper-level support and thus, upscale growth into an MCS remains uncertain. However, storm coverage may be great enough for upscale growth into one or more MCSs which could maintain some severe weather threat into the overnight hours across southern Minnesota and western Iowa where the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 35 to 45 knots Sunday night. A Slight Risk has been introduced across South Dakota, in proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough, where greater storm coverage appears likely. Elsewhere, northeast to the Canadian border and farther south across Nebraska and northern Kansas, storm coverage remains more questionable, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low across Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma will start to fill and accelerate northeast as an open wave on Sunday. A low amplitude mid-level trough will remain centered across the western CONUS with several embedded mid-level impulses within moderate southwesterly flow from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level trough will become a cutoff low over the Gulf Stream and start to retrograde toward the New England coast late in the forecast period. Persistent southwesterly mid-level flow will result in lee troughing across the Plains and strengthening southerly surface flow. This will bring renewed Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... A surface low will likely be located somewhere across western South Dakota on Sunday and will only drift slightly east through the day. East of this surface low, southerly winds will increase low-level moisture with dewpoints increasing to the upper 60s/near 70 by 00Z. By late afternoon, a warm front is forecast to become better defined across north-central South Dakota which, in addition to the cold front/dryline, should be a source for thunderstorm development as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon/evening. Moderate flow associated with this mid-level shortwave trough should result in 35 to 40 knots of effective shear by late afternoon which would be sufficient for supercells. Moderate instability and moderate shear will support a large hail threat, while inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will also support a severe wind threat. The low-level jet axis is mostly southeast of the greatest upper-level support and thus, upscale growth into an MCS remains uncertain. However, storm coverage may be great enough for upscale growth into one or more MCSs which could maintain some severe weather threat into the overnight hours across southern Minnesota and western Iowa where the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 35 to 45 knots Sunday night. A Slight Risk has been introduced across South Dakota, in proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough, where greater storm coverage appears likely. Elsewhere, northeast to the Canadian border and farther south across Nebraska and northern Kansas, storm coverage remains more questionable, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low across Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma will start to fill and accelerate northeast as an open wave on Sunday. A low amplitude mid-level trough will remain centered across the western CONUS with several embedded mid-level impulses within moderate southwesterly flow from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level trough will become a cutoff low over the Gulf Stream and start to retrograde toward the New England coast late in the forecast period. Persistent southwesterly mid-level flow will result in lee troughing across the Plains and strengthening southerly surface flow. This will bring renewed Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... A surface low will likely be located somewhere across western South Dakota on Sunday and will only drift slightly east through the day. East of this surface low, southerly winds will increase low-level moisture with dewpoints increasing to the upper 60s/near 70 by 00Z. By late afternoon, a warm front is forecast to become better defined across north-central South Dakota which, in addition to the cold front/dryline, should be a source for thunderstorm development as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon/evening. Moderate flow associated with this mid-level shortwave trough should result in 35 to 40 knots of effective shear by late afternoon which would be sufficient for supercells. Moderate instability and moderate shear will support a large hail threat, while inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will also support a severe wind threat. The low-level jet axis is mostly southeast of the greatest upper-level support and thus, upscale growth into an MCS remains uncertain. However, storm coverage may be great enough for upscale growth into one or more MCSs which could maintain some severe weather threat into the overnight hours across southern Minnesota and western Iowa where the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 35 to 45 knots Sunday night. A Slight Risk has been introduced across South Dakota, in proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough, where greater storm coverage appears likely. Elsewhere, northeast to the Canadian border and farther south across Nebraska and northern Kansas, storm coverage remains more questionable, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low across Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma will start to fill and accelerate northeast as an open wave on Sunday. A low amplitude mid-level trough will remain centered across the western CONUS with several embedded mid-level impulses within moderate southwesterly flow from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level trough will become a cutoff low over the Gulf Stream and start to retrograde toward the New England coast late in the forecast period. Persistent southwesterly mid-level flow will result in lee troughing across the Plains and strengthening southerly surface flow. This will bring renewed Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... A surface low will likely be located somewhere across western South Dakota on Sunday and will only drift slightly east through the day. East of this surface low, southerly winds will increase low-level moisture with dewpoints increasing to the upper 60s/near 70 by 00Z. By late afternoon, a warm front is forecast to become better defined across north-central South Dakota which, in addition to the cold front/dryline, should be a source for thunderstorm development as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon/evening. Moderate flow associated with this mid-level shortwave trough should result in 35 to 40 knots of effective shear by late afternoon which would be sufficient for supercells. Moderate instability and moderate shear will support a large hail threat, while inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will also support a severe wind threat. The low-level jet axis is mostly southeast of the greatest upper-level support and thus, upscale growth into an MCS remains uncertain. However, storm coverage may be great enough for upscale growth into one or more MCSs which could maintain some severe weather threat into the overnight hours across southern Minnesota and western Iowa where the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 35 to 45 knots Sunday night. A Slight Risk has been introduced across South Dakota, in proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough, where greater storm coverage appears likely. Elsewhere, northeast to the Canadian border and farther south across Nebraska and northern Kansas, storm coverage remains more questionable, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more