Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 25 21:35:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more