Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas and Northern Minnesota... Overnight convection has largely diminished in the predawn hours across northwest Minnesota. This convectively reinforced instability gradient/frontal segment should shift northward a bit today, with the possibility of storm redevelopment in its vicinity this afternoon within a moist environment across northern Minnesota. This may be influenced by a subtle convectively enhanced mid-level impulse or two embedded within moderately strong southwesterlies in the base of the upper trough over the Canadian Prairies. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While the extent of deep convective development is a bit uncertain, a few supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Farther west, there is the potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central North Dakota into western South Dakota during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas this evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as a fairly prominent shortwave trough moves across Wyoming into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave trough moves from California into northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe wind gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming into western Nebraska could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas and Northern Minnesota... Overnight convection has largely diminished in the predawn hours across northwest Minnesota. This convectively reinforced instability gradient/frontal segment should shift northward a bit today, with the possibility of storm redevelopment in its vicinity this afternoon within a moist environment across northern Minnesota. This may be influenced by a subtle convectively enhanced mid-level impulse or two embedded within moderately strong southwesterlies in the base of the upper trough over the Canadian Prairies. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While the extent of deep convective development is a bit uncertain, a few supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Farther west, there is the potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central North Dakota into western South Dakota during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas this evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as a fairly prominent shortwave trough moves across Wyoming into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave trough moves from California into northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe wind gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming into western Nebraska could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas and Northern Minnesota... Overnight convection has largely diminished in the predawn hours across northwest Minnesota. This convectively reinforced instability gradient/frontal segment should shift northward a bit today, with the possibility of storm redevelopment in its vicinity this afternoon within a moist environment across northern Minnesota. This may be influenced by a subtle convectively enhanced mid-level impulse or two embedded within moderately strong southwesterlies in the base of the upper trough over the Canadian Prairies. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While the extent of deep convective development is a bit uncertain, a few supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Farther west, there is the potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central North Dakota into western South Dakota during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas this evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as a fairly prominent shortwave trough moves across Wyoming into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave trough moves from California into northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe wind gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming into western Nebraska could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas and Northern Minnesota... Overnight convection has largely diminished in the predawn hours across northwest Minnesota. This convectively reinforced instability gradient/frontal segment should shift northward a bit today, with the possibility of storm redevelopment in its vicinity this afternoon within a moist environment across northern Minnesota. This may be influenced by a subtle convectively enhanced mid-level impulse or two embedded within moderately strong southwesterlies in the base of the upper trough over the Canadian Prairies. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While the extent of deep convective development is a bit uncertain, a few supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Farther west, there is the potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central North Dakota into western South Dakota during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas this evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as a fairly prominent shortwave trough moves across Wyoming into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave trough moves from California into northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe wind gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming into western Nebraska could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Dakotas and Northern Minnesota... Overnight convection has largely diminished in the predawn hours across northwest Minnesota. This convectively reinforced instability gradient/frontal segment should shift northward a bit today, with the possibility of storm redevelopment in its vicinity this afternoon within a moist environment across northern Minnesota. This may be influenced by a subtle convectively enhanced mid-level impulse or two embedded within moderately strong southwesterlies in the base of the upper trough over the Canadian Prairies. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While the extent of deep convective development is a bit uncertain, a few supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Farther west, there is the potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central North Dakota into western South Dakota during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas this evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as a fairly prominent shortwave trough moves across Wyoming into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave trough moves from California into northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe wind gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming into western Nebraska could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/27/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more