Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota, the central High Plains, and central/northern Rockies. ...Parts of ND into northern MN... Storms have struggled to mature thus far today across parts of ND/MN. However, moderate to strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection remain in place across parts of ND into northern MN this evening, as noted on the KBIS and KINL 00Z soundings. Convective evolution through this evening remains rather uncertain, but some increase in storm coverage is expected with time later tonight from eastern ND into northwest MN, in conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet and a compact shortwave trough that will move quickly eastward across parts of southern SK/MB. The strongest storms could pose some threat of hail and isolated damaging gusts, with a somewhat greater coverage of damaging-wind threat possible if any upscale growth can evolve. ...Parts of the central/northern High Plains... Scattered strong storms are ongoing this evening from parts of SD into western NE and northeast CO, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated strong/severe gusts and hail may continue to be a threat with these storms through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a general weakening trend later tonight. ...Southeast ID/northeast UT into western WY... A small cluster of strong storms across parts of northeast UT/southeast ID may continue to pose a threat of isolated severe gusts as it spreads eastward into southwest WY early this evening, within a weakly unstable but favorably sheared environment. Gradual weakening is expected later this evening due to increasing CINH with time and eastward extent. ..Dean.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms remain possible tonight across parts of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota, the central High Plains, and central/northern Rockies. ...Parts of ND into northern MN... Storms have struggled to mature thus far today across parts of ND/MN. However, moderate to strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection remain in place across parts of ND into northern MN this evening, as noted on the KBIS and KINL 00Z soundings. Convective evolution through this evening remains rather uncertain, but some increase in storm coverage is expected with time later tonight from eastern ND into northwest MN, in conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet and a compact shortwave trough that will move quickly eastward across parts of southern SK/MB. The strongest storms could pose some threat of hail and isolated damaging gusts, with a somewhat greater coverage of damaging-wind threat possible if any upscale growth can evolve. ...Parts of the central/northern High Plains... Scattered strong storms are ongoing this evening from parts of SD into western NE and northeast CO, within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. Isolated strong/severe gusts and hail may continue to be a threat with these storms through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a general weakening trend later tonight. ...Southeast ID/northeast UT into western WY... A small cluster of strong storms across parts of northeast UT/southeast ID may continue to pose a threat of isolated severe gusts as it spreads eastward into southwest WY early this evening, within a weakly unstable but favorably sheared environment. Gradual weakening is expected later this evening due to increasing CINH with time and eastward extent. ..Dean.. 07/28/2024 Read more

MD 1717 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1717 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern North Dakota into far northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272312Z - 280115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for thunderstorm development, with a risk of damaging winds and large hail. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...As of 2300Z, the KBIS/KMBX radars show increasing surface convergence along a NNW/SSE-oriented cold front draped across central North Dakota. Boundary-layer cumulus is also expanding in coverage and deepening along the front, generally along/south of I-94. Given a warm/moist and uncapped pre-convective air mass, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front in the next hour or so. Steep midlevel lapse rates (associated with an EML) above the warm/moist boundary layer are contributing to moderate surface-based instability ahead of the front. This, combined with around 35 kt of west-southwesterly effective shear (oriented oblique to the front), will support a mix of organized clusters and semi-discrete supercells. Large hail (generally up to 1.75 inches) and locally damaging wind gusts (up to 70 mph) will be possible (especially with any initial semi-discrete supercells). With time, the damaging-wind risk may increase if storms can grow locally upscale as they track eastward. There is still some uncertainty on overall storm coverage and longevity (given fairly weak large-scale ascent and gradually increasing nocturnal static stability). Trends are being monitored for a possible watch issuance for parts of the area this evening. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48130053 48849985 49019944 49099864 49089708 48809676 48239683 47429765 46629885 46349982 46260062 46340100 46470118 46790122 47370094 48130053 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 27 23:16:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1717 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1717 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern North Dakota into far northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 272312Z - 280115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for thunderstorm development, with a risk of damaging winds and large hail. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...As of 2300Z, the KBIS/KMBX radars show increasing surface convergence along a NNW/SSE-oriented cold front draped across central North Dakota. Boundary-layer cumulus is also expanding in coverage and deepening along the front, generally along/south of I-94. Given a warm/moist and uncapped pre-convective air mass, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front in the next hour or so. Steep midlevel lapse rates (associated with an EML) above the warm/moist boundary layer are contributing to moderate surface-based instability ahead of the front. This, combined with around 35 kt of west-southwesterly effective shear (oriented oblique to the front), will support a mix of organized clusters and semi-discrete supercells. Large hail (generally up to 1.75 inches) and locally damaging wind gusts (up to 70 mph) will be possible (especially with any initial semi-discrete supercells). With time, the damaging-wind risk may increase if storms can grow locally upscale as they track eastward. There is still some uncertainty on overall storm coverage and longevity (given fairly weak large-scale ascent and gradually increasing nocturnal static stability). Trends are being monitored for a possible watch issuance for parts of the area this evening. ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 48130053 48849985 49019944 49099864 49089708 48809676 48239683 47429765 46629885 46349982 46260062 46340100 46470118 46790122 47370094 48130053 Read more

MD 1716 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST CO...FAR SOUTHEAST WY...NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Areas affected...Northeast CO...Far Southeast WY...NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272116Z - 272315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph are possible from southeast Wyoming and northeast CO into the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...A few deeper updrafts have recently developed across extreme southeast WY and the southwestern NE Panhandle over the past half hour or so. These deeper updrafts are developing in an area of modest buoyancy, increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, and persistent low-level convergence. The deeply mixed boundary layer in place will support an outflow-dominant storm mode, with the area of convergence downstream northeastward into the northern NE Panhandle and south-central SD potentially acting as a favored corridor for propagation. Damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph are the primary severe hazard with these storms. Farther west, thunderstorms continue to develop over the higher terrain, with the enhanced mid-level flow taking these storms eastward into the deeply mixed boundary layer downstream. Vertical shear is modest, with a predominantly multicellular, outflow-dominant mode anticipated. Damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph are the primary severe hazard with these storms as well. ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38730373 40290531 41920612 42980330 42480154 40020227 38730373 Read more

MD 1715 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST UT...SOUTHERN WY...NORTHWEST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Areas affected...Northeast UT...Southern WY...Northwest CO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271906Z - 272200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts from 45 to 65 mph are possible across northeast Utah, southern Wyoming, and northwest Colorado this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows a large area of building cumulus from central/northeast UT into northwest CO and southern WY. This cumulus is building along and just ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving into the region. Convective initiation has already occurred in the few places, with thunderstorm coverage expected to continue increasing over the next few hours as the airmass heats and destabilizes, and the shortwave continues eastward. Overall buoyancy will likely remain modest (i.e. around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE), and the storm mode is expected to remain multicellular. Even so, high cloud bases and moderate mid-level flow could still result in a few strong, negatively buoyant downdrafts capable of gusts from 45 to 65 mph across the region this afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 39100799 38290945 38861116 40851154 42670864 42490545 40680605 39100799 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z The period will begin with multiple mid-level impulses traversing the periphery of an upper ridge across the Interior West, with the ridge intensifying over the western CONUS as the week progresses. For Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday), localized areas of dry and breezy conditions, and perhaps a couple of dry thunderstorms, may accompany the passage of the mid-level impulses from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies and northern/central High Plains. Elevated highlights may be needed for areas where dry and breezy conditions can overspread receptive fuels not dampened by preceding rainfall in the Days 1-2 time frame. The best chance for isolated dry thunderstorms will be across southern Montana on Day 4 (Tuesday) with the passage of a pronounced mid-level shortwave trough. However, multiple rounds of preceding precipitation may dampen fuels, so isolated dry thunderstorm probabilities have been withheld until details on future fuels receptiveness can be ascertained. Relatively quiescent fire weather conditions should then ensue for the remainder of the forecast period. At some point next weekend into early parts of the following week, the upper ridge should pivot eastward, allowing for a northward return of mid-level moisture into northern California to eastern Washington. Given the anticipated critically receptive nature of fuels in the Pacific Northwest, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights may eventually be needed. ..Squitieri.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of eastern North Dakota into Minnesota, where daytime heating has yielded around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow aloft is supporting 40-50 kts of deep layer shear from far eastern ND into northern MN. Activity thus far has been elevated, given mid-level capping. Some uncertainty exists in whether more robust surface based storms can develop. Should surface based storms develop, this environment may support potential for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado later this evening. Additional thunderstorm development may occur further west near a cold front across the western/central Dakotas later this evening. Confidence in exact coverage of additional development remains low. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave advecting eastward across western Colorado. This feature will be the focus of thunderstorm development and potential for isolated strong to severe winds across the High Plains later this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1715 for more information. Overall, the current D1 Convective Outlook characterizes these threats well with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of eastern North Dakota into Minnesota, where daytime heating has yielded around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow aloft is supporting 40-50 kts of deep layer shear from far eastern ND into northern MN. Activity thus far has been elevated, given mid-level capping. Some uncertainty exists in whether more robust surface based storms can develop. Should surface based storms develop, this environment may support potential for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado later this evening. Additional thunderstorm development may occur further west near a cold front across the western/central Dakotas later this evening. Confidence in exact coverage of additional development remains low. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave advecting eastward across western Colorado. This feature will be the focus of thunderstorm development and potential for isolated strong to severe winds across the High Plains later this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1715 for more information. Overall, the current D1 Convective Outlook characterizes these threats well with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds appear possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, including parts of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across portions of eastern North Dakota into Minnesota, where daytime heating has yielded around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow aloft is supporting 40-50 kts of deep layer shear from far eastern ND into northern MN. Activity thus far has been elevated, given mid-level capping. Some uncertainty exists in whether more robust surface based storms can develop. Should surface based storms develop, this environment may support potential for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado later this evening. Additional thunderstorm development may occur further west near a cold front across the western/central Dakotas later this evening. Confidence in exact coverage of additional development remains low. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave advecting eastward across western Colorado. This feature will be the focus of thunderstorm development and potential for isolated strong to severe winds across the High Plains later this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1715 for more information. Overall, the current D1 Convective Outlook characterizes these threats well with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton.. 07/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A closed upper low centered over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba this morning will move slowly eastward towards Hudson Bay through the period. Across the northern Plains, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Dakotas is forecast to advance northeastward into eastern ND and northern MN through this evening. This feature should aid in renewed convective development across this area later today. A cold front/surface trough arcs southward from the primary surface low in northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into parts of eastern MT. Low-level moisture remains more limited with westward extent across the northern High Plains, with greater surface dewpoints (mid/upper 60s to low 70s) present farther east in the Dakotas and northern MN. Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along an instability/moisture gradient across parts of northern MN as the previously mentioned shortwave trough overspreads this region. Ongoing weak/elevated thunderstorms in northeast SD may also persist and gradually strengthen as they move northeastward into greater instability this afternoon. Around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place in a narrow corridor across northern MN and vicinity by late afternoon, as daytime heating of the moist low-level airmass continues to occur, and as modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspread the warm sector. Around 35-50 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the shortwave trough should aid in similar values of deep-layer shear, which will promote organized severe thunderstorm potential, including supercells. Large hail and severe/damaging winds will be a threat with any robust convection that can remain at least semi-discrete. Enough low-level shear should also be present to support some threat for a tornado or two. This activity will spread northeastward towards the international border through the evening, before eventually moving into Canada. Additional convection may also develop along the weak cold front/surface trough in the western/central Dakotas vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. This potential still appears somewhat more uncertain in the wake of the lead shortwave trough. Even so, any thunderstorm clusters that can be sustained will be capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, given a favorable thermodynamic environment and sufficient deep-layer shear. This convection should eventually weaken by late evening into the eastern Dakotas with the loss of daytime heating. ...Northern Great Basin into the Central Rockies/High Plains... Multiple mid-level vorticity maxima will move east-northeastward across the northern Great Basin and central Rockies/High Plains today. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop across these regions this afternoon and evening while spreading generally eastward. Even though low-level moisture will tend to remain fairly limited, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support an isolated threat for strong to severe wind gusts with the more robust cores. Convection may have a tendency to form into one or more loosely organized clusters through this evening, especially across the central High Plains of eastern WY/northeast CO into the NE Panhandle vicinity. Still, with generally modest deep-layer shear, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains too low to include a Slight Risk across the central High Plains with this update. Read more