Severe Storms

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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will advance off the East Coast on Monday while the upper-level ridge starts to build across the High Plains. A mid-level shortwave trough off the California coast Monday morning will approach the Great Basin by the evening and may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Utah. Additionally, convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will move across the Rockies on Monday with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the higher terrain across the central/southern Rockies on Monday afternoon and move into the central Plains. Weak to moderate instability and weak to moderate shear are forecast across the region which may result in a few isolated strong to severe storms. These storms will develop in a region of overall rising heights aloft. However, most guidance indicates a convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, likely emanating from the convection near the AZ/Mexico border this morning, will result in mesoscale ascent across Colorado and aid in storm development. ...Great Basin... Moderate instability will develop across the Great Basin on Monday as monsoon moisture streams north ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon as the inhibition erodes. Effective shear is forecast to be relatively weak (15 to 20 knots) which may limit storm organization. There is considerable uncertainty with the thermodynamic profile forecast from the RAP and NAM across western Utah with the NAM showing less instability and deeper mixing with the RAP showing greater instability and at less mixed boundary layer (thus resulting in greater instability). Regardless of the scenario, there will be a threat for severe wind gusts given the at least moderately unstable environment with height falls across the region during the afternoon. ...Eastern North Carolina... Storms are forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves across North Carolina Monday afternoon. A very moist airmass will be in place with mid-70s dewpoints. Despite a focused mechanism for storms and moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expect the threat for organized severe weather to remain low given the weak effective shear (~25 knots) and weak mid-level lapse rates (<6 C/km). ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. ..Hart/Weinman.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. ..Hart/Weinman.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. ..Hart/Weinman.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. ..Hart/Weinman.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. ..Hart/Weinman.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. ..Hart/Weinman.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. ..Hart/Weinman.. 08/11/2024 Read more