Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Localized elevated conditions remain likely across much of NV, but the overlap of persistent gradient wind speeds above 15 mph with sufficiently dry fuels appears limited and mostly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada in northwest NV. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon and overnight across portions of central and eastern WA, and may include a few dry thunderstorms. However, confidence on the propensity for dry lightning is too limited for highlights at this time. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... For Sunday, zonal flow aloft will modestly amplify in the West as another shortwave trough moves into northern California late in the period. At the surface, the overall pattern will be more diffuse/disorganized within the Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies. Some dry and marginally breezy conditions are possible in parts of Nevada, though winds will remain too light for highlights. Thunderstorm potential over sufficiently dry fuels appears to be quite low as well. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the eastern CONUS on Sunday as it becomes negatively tilted across the Northeast. A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest today will cross the central Rockies and emerge across the Plains on Sunday afternoon. This mid-level trough, and associated lee troughing, may be a catalyst for isolated severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Oklahoma and perhaps southern Kansas where moderate to strong isentropic ascent is forecast as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. Modest lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) and effective shear (25-30 knots) will likely preclude any severe weather threat with this activity. Expect these storms to persist through the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon before the low-level jet weakens. In the wake of these storms, strong instability is expected to develop across Oklahoma. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but a few storms may develop. At this time, confidence in additional strong to severe storms is not high enough to expand the marginal risk farther south, but this will continue to be monitored. Farther north, a lee surface trough will develop along the central High Plains and may be the catalyst for scattered thunderstorm development as forcing overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. A warm nose between 850mb and 700mb should keep surface parcels capped, but deepening rich moisture should lead to sufficient elevated instability to support thunderstorm development. Any strong updrafts which can develop may become supercellular given the strong effective shear (50-55 knots). In addition, there is some evidence that storms may congeal into a forward propagating MCS across northern Nebraska. If this does occur, a greater severe wind threat is possible, and higher wind probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the eastern CONUS on Sunday as it becomes negatively tilted across the Northeast. A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest today will cross the central Rockies and emerge across the Plains on Sunday afternoon. This mid-level trough, and associated lee troughing, may be a catalyst for isolated severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Oklahoma and perhaps southern Kansas where moderate to strong isentropic ascent is forecast as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. Modest lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) and effective shear (25-30 knots) will likely preclude any severe weather threat with this activity. Expect these storms to persist through the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon before the low-level jet weakens. In the wake of these storms, strong instability is expected to develop across Oklahoma. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but a few storms may develop. At this time, confidence in additional strong to severe storms is not high enough to expand the marginal risk farther south, but this will continue to be monitored. Farther north, a lee surface trough will develop along the central High Plains and may be the catalyst for scattered thunderstorm development as forcing overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. A warm nose between 850mb and 700mb should keep surface parcels capped, but deepening rich moisture should lead to sufficient elevated instability to support thunderstorm development. Any strong updrafts which can develop may become supercellular given the strong effective shear (50-55 knots). In addition, there is some evidence that storms may congeal into a forward propagating MCS across northern Nebraska. If this does occur, a greater severe wind threat is possible, and higher wind probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the eastern CONUS on Sunday as it becomes negatively tilted across the Northeast. A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest today will cross the central Rockies and emerge across the Plains on Sunday afternoon. This mid-level trough, and associated lee troughing, may be a catalyst for isolated severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Oklahoma and perhaps southern Kansas where moderate to strong isentropic ascent is forecast as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. Modest lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) and effective shear (25-30 knots) will likely preclude any severe weather threat with this activity. Expect these storms to persist through the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon before the low-level jet weakens. In the wake of these storms, strong instability is expected to develop across Oklahoma. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but a few storms may develop. At this time, confidence in additional strong to severe storms is not high enough to expand the marginal risk farther south, but this will continue to be monitored. Farther north, a lee surface trough will develop along the central High Plains and may be the catalyst for scattered thunderstorm development as forcing overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. A warm nose between 850mb and 700mb should keep surface parcels capped, but deepening rich moisture should lead to sufficient elevated instability to support thunderstorm development. Any strong updrafts which can develop may become supercellular given the strong effective shear (50-55 knots). In addition, there is some evidence that storms may congeal into a forward propagating MCS across northern Nebraska. If this does occur, a greater severe wind threat is possible, and higher wind probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the eastern CONUS on Sunday as it becomes negatively tilted across the Northeast. A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest today will cross the central Rockies and emerge across the Plains on Sunday afternoon. This mid-level trough, and associated lee troughing, may be a catalyst for isolated severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Oklahoma and perhaps southern Kansas where moderate to strong isentropic ascent is forecast as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. Modest lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) and effective shear (25-30 knots) will likely preclude any severe weather threat with this activity. Expect these storms to persist through the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon before the low-level jet weakens. In the wake of these storms, strong instability is expected to develop across Oklahoma. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but a few storms may develop. At this time, confidence in additional strong to severe storms is not high enough to expand the marginal risk farther south, but this will continue to be monitored. Farther north, a lee surface trough will develop along the central High Plains and may be the catalyst for scattered thunderstorm development as forcing overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. A warm nose between 850mb and 700mb should keep surface parcels capped, but deepening rich moisture should lead to sufficient elevated instability to support thunderstorm development. Any strong updrafts which can develop may become supercellular given the strong effective shear (50-55 knots). In addition, there is some evidence that storms may congeal into a forward propagating MCS across northern Nebraska. If this does occur, a greater severe wind threat is possible, and higher wind probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the eastern CONUS on Sunday as it becomes negatively tilted across the Northeast. A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest today will cross the central Rockies and emerge across the Plains on Sunday afternoon. This mid-level trough, and associated lee troughing, may be a catalyst for isolated severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Oklahoma and perhaps southern Kansas where moderate to strong isentropic ascent is forecast as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. Modest lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) and effective shear (25-30 knots) will likely preclude any severe weather threat with this activity. Expect these storms to persist through the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon before the low-level jet weakens. In the wake of these storms, strong instability is expected to develop across Oklahoma. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but a few storms may develop. At this time, confidence in additional strong to severe storms is not high enough to expand the marginal risk farther south, but this will continue to be monitored. Farther north, a lee surface trough will develop along the central High Plains and may be the catalyst for scattered thunderstorm development as forcing overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. A warm nose between 850mb and 700mb should keep surface parcels capped, but deepening rich moisture should lead to sufficient elevated instability to support thunderstorm development. Any strong updrafts which can develop may become supercellular given the strong effective shear (50-55 knots). In addition, there is some evidence that storms may congeal into a forward propagating MCS across northern Nebraska. If this does occur, a greater severe wind threat is possible, and higher wind probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the eastern CONUS on Sunday as it becomes negatively tilted across the Northeast. A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest today will cross the central Rockies and emerge across the Plains on Sunday afternoon. This mid-level trough, and associated lee troughing, may be a catalyst for isolated severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Oklahoma and perhaps southern Kansas where moderate to strong isentropic ascent is forecast as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. Modest lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) and effective shear (25-30 knots) will likely preclude any severe weather threat with this activity. Expect these storms to persist through the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon before the low-level jet weakens. In the wake of these storms, strong instability is expected to develop across Oklahoma. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but a few storms may develop. At this time, confidence in additional strong to severe storms is not high enough to expand the marginal risk farther south, but this will continue to be monitored. Farther north, a lee surface trough will develop along the central High Plains and may be the catalyst for scattered thunderstorm development as forcing overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. A warm nose between 850mb and 700mb should keep surface parcels capped, but deepening rich moisture should lead to sufficient elevated instability to support thunderstorm development. Any strong updrafts which can develop may become supercellular given the strong effective shear (50-55 knots). In addition, there is some evidence that storms may congeal into a forward propagating MCS across northern Nebraska. If this does occur, a greater severe wind threat is possible, and higher wind probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the central Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to deepen across the eastern CONUS on Sunday as it becomes negatively tilted across the Northeast. A mid-level shortwave trough across the Pacific Northwest today will cross the central Rockies and emerge across the Plains on Sunday afternoon. This mid-level trough, and associated lee troughing, may be a catalyst for isolated severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Oklahoma and perhaps southern Kansas where moderate to strong isentropic ascent is forecast as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. Modest lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) and effective shear (25-30 knots) will likely preclude any severe weather threat with this activity. Expect these storms to persist through the morning and perhaps into the early afternoon before the low-level jet weakens. In the wake of these storms, strong instability is expected to develop across Oklahoma. Forcing is somewhat nebulous, but a few storms may develop. At this time, confidence in additional strong to severe storms is not high enough to expand the marginal risk farther south, but this will continue to be monitored. Farther north, a lee surface trough will develop along the central High Plains and may be the catalyst for scattered thunderstorm development as forcing overspreads the region ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough. A warm nose between 850mb and 700mb should keep surface parcels capped, but deepening rich moisture should lead to sufficient elevated instability to support thunderstorm development. Any strong updrafts which can develop may become supercellular given the strong effective shear (50-55 knots). In addition, there is some evidence that storms may congeal into a forward propagating MCS across northern Nebraska. If this does occur, a greater severe wind threat is possible, and higher wind probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/10/2024 Read more