Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 10 22:16:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1877 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ID...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MT...WESTERN/CENTRAL WY
Mesoscale Discussion 1877 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern ID...southwest/south-central MT...western/central WY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102013Z - 102215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong to severe gusts are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon from eastern ID into southwest MT and western WY, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the interior Northwest. Low-level moisture remains rather limited, but steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting MLCAPE of near or above 500 J/kg where somewhat stronger diurnal heating has occurred. One supercell is ongoing near the ID/WY border, and effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support occasionally organized storms through the afternoon. Isolated hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible with the initially discrete storms. With time, one or more outflow-dominant clusters could evolve and spread east-southeastward, resulting in localized corridors of somewhat greater strong to severe gust potential. ..Dean/Goss.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 42961217 43561154 44031180 44171256 44641374 45811326 46631201 47081031 46670967 45410853 43100623 42180701 42540962 42521176 42961217 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Fire weather concerns will remain focused across portions of the Great Basin through the upcoming work week, though confidence in widespread critical conditions is limited for much of the forecast period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of the upper-level regime with ridging across the central CONUS into the Rockies and the development of a mean trough along/off the West Coast. This synoptic regime will favor multiple shortwave perturbations propagating across the West Coast/Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Each wave will bring isolated to scattered rain/thunderstorm chances across the Four Corners (where monsoonal moisture should remain relatively abundant) and Pacific Northwest as well as breezy conditions to parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Monday - Nevada... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of CA and NV through the forecast period with ensemble guidance showing limited potential for wetting rainfall. Consequently, fuels will remain receptive and/or continue to gradually dry. A progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move across the region late D3/Mon into D4/Tues. As this occurs, the low-level mass response should induce strengthening south/southwesterly winds in excess of 15 mph (with higher winds expected within terrain-prone locations). The downslope flow regime off of the Sierra Nevada should maintain widespread RH values in the teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected with areas of critical conditions possible. Beyond D3/Mon, subsequent upper disturbances may support additional days of dry/windy conditions in the lee of the Sierra Nevada and across central to eastern NV. However, spread among deterministic solutions and low ensemble probabilities for meeting critical thresholds limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...D3/Monday to D4/Tuesday - Pacific Northwest... Although a gradual cooling trend is anticipated for much of the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms over dry fuels may support some fire weather concerns - especially D3/Mon night into early D4/Tues as a progressive shortwave trough moves across the region. Confidence in the propensity for dry thunderstorms is limited at this range, but trends will be monitored given recent lightning starts across the region. ..Moore.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, are possible during this afternoon and evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. Expanded the marginal risk slightly to include far eastern Idaho where a supercell has developed in eastern Bonneville county. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with multiple widely scattered thunderstorms/thunderstorm clusters capable of marginally large hail and a few gust across the Rockies and into the central High Plains. A few strong storms have occurred in the Carolinas with additional storms possible this afternoon, but the threat is expected to stay too limited and isolated for a marginal risk. ..Bentley.. 08/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ ...Intermountain West into the central and northern High Plains... A general lack of cloud cover this morning over most of the outlook area will allow ample afternoon heating to occur, supporting both a deep mixed layer and modest destabilization yielding 500 to 1000 J/kg CAPE above the mixed layer. With a number of weak disturbances/vorticity maxima moving through moderate/generally westerly mid-level flow across the Intermountain West, development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Given the aforementioned westerlies (generally 25 to 35 kt) providing ample shear for organized -- and possibly upscale growing -- convection locally, some severe risk (mainly in the form of gusty/damaging winds) is evident. Risk may be locally greater where storms can congeal into eastward-moving clusters, but overall a MRGL risk remains the general expectation through this evening. Read more