Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Eastern Great Basin into the Southern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should persist over much of the Great Basin into the Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern CA and the northern Great Basin through the period. But, due to its late timing, this feature will provide only glancing ascent farther east. Regardless, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to develop by Monday afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies, and along a weak surface lee trough. This activity should eventually spread eastward into the southern/central High Plains late Monday afternoon through early evening. Low-level moisture and mid-level flow are both expected to remain rather modest/limited across these areas, which should generally inhibit thunderstorm organization. Still, some chance for isolated strong to severe wind gusts may exist with any high-based convection that can develop. But, this threat appears too isolated/unfocused for low severe wind probabilities. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks... Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of OK into the Ozarks vicinity. This activity is forecast to diminish in coverage through the day as warm advection attendant to a southwesterly low-level jet weakens. In the wake of this early day convection, moderate to locally strong instability should develop along/near a front across parts of northern OK/southern KS. Large-scale ascent will remain minimal across this area, but a conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Regardless, not enough confidence exists in robust thunderstorms developing to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal Carolinas... A notable upper trough will move eastward over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The southern fringe of this feature should have a glancing influence on convective potential across parts of the coastal Carolinas Monday afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak with southward extent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may still develop along/south of a front in a moderately unstable environment. But, deep-layer shear appears too weak to support more than transient updraft organization. While sporadic strong wind gusts may occur, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Eastern Great Basin into the Southern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should persist over much of the Great Basin into the Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern CA and the northern Great Basin through the period. But, due to its late timing, this feature will provide only glancing ascent farther east. Regardless, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to develop by Monday afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies, and along a weak surface lee trough. This activity should eventually spread eastward into the southern/central High Plains late Monday afternoon through early evening. Low-level moisture and mid-level flow are both expected to remain rather modest/limited across these areas, which should generally inhibit thunderstorm organization. Still, some chance for isolated strong to severe wind gusts may exist with any high-based convection that can develop. But, this threat appears too isolated/unfocused for low severe wind probabilities. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks... Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of OK into the Ozarks vicinity. This activity is forecast to diminish in coverage through the day as warm advection attendant to a southwesterly low-level jet weakens. In the wake of this early day convection, moderate to locally strong instability should develop along/near a front across parts of northern OK/southern KS. Large-scale ascent will remain minimal across this area, but a conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Regardless, not enough confidence exists in robust thunderstorms developing to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal Carolinas... A notable upper trough will move eastward over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The southern fringe of this feature should have a glancing influence on convective potential across parts of the coastal Carolinas Monday afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak with southward extent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may still develop along/south of a front in a moderately unstable environment. But, deep-layer shear appears too weak to support more than transient updraft organization. While sporadic strong wind gusts may occur, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Eastern Great Basin into the Southern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should persist over much of the Great Basin into the Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern CA and the northern Great Basin through the period. But, due to its late timing, this feature will provide only glancing ascent farther east. Regardless, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to develop by Monday afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies, and along a weak surface lee trough. This activity should eventually spread eastward into the southern/central High Plains late Monday afternoon through early evening. Low-level moisture and mid-level flow are both expected to remain rather modest/limited across these areas, which should generally inhibit thunderstorm organization. Still, some chance for isolated strong to severe wind gusts may exist with any high-based convection that can develop. But, this threat appears too isolated/unfocused for low severe wind probabilities. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks... Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of OK into the Ozarks vicinity. This activity is forecast to diminish in coverage through the day as warm advection attendant to a southwesterly low-level jet weakens. In the wake of this early day convection, moderate to locally strong instability should develop along/near a front across parts of northern OK/southern KS. Large-scale ascent will remain minimal across this area, but a conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Regardless, not enough confidence exists in robust thunderstorms developing to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal Carolinas... A notable upper trough will move eastward over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The southern fringe of this feature should have a glancing influence on convective potential across parts of the coastal Carolinas Monday afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak with southward extent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may still develop along/south of a front in a moderately unstable environment. But, deep-layer shear appears too weak to support more than transient updraft organization. While sporadic strong wind gusts may occur, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Monday appears generally low across the contiguous United States. ...Eastern Great Basin into the Southern/Central High Plains... Upper ridging should persist over much of the Great Basin into the Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Monday. A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern CA and the northern Great Basin through the period. But, due to its late timing, this feature will provide only glancing ascent farther east. Regardless, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to develop by Monday afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies, and along a weak surface lee trough. This activity should eventually spread eastward into the southern/central High Plains late Monday afternoon through early evening. Low-level moisture and mid-level flow are both expected to remain rather modest/limited across these areas, which should generally inhibit thunderstorm organization. Still, some chance for isolated strong to severe wind gusts may exist with any high-based convection that can develop. But, this threat appears too isolated/unfocused for low severe wind probabilities. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks... Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of OK into the Ozarks vicinity. This activity is forecast to diminish in coverage through the day as warm advection attendant to a southwesterly low-level jet weakens. In the wake of this early day convection, moderate to locally strong instability should develop along/near a front across parts of northern OK/southern KS. Large-scale ascent will remain minimal across this area, but a conditional threat for strong to severe thunderstorms remains apparent. Regardless, not enough confidence exists in robust thunderstorms developing to introduce severe probabilities at this time. ...Coastal Carolinas... A notable upper trough will move eastward over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The southern fringe of this feature should have a glancing influence on convective potential across parts of the coastal Carolinas Monday afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak with southward extent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may still develop along/south of a front in a moderately unstable environment. But, deep-layer shear appears too weak to support more than transient updraft organization. While sporadic strong wind gusts may occur, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present on the poleward side of a flattened upper-level ridge in the southern U.S. With time, a shortwave trough will amplify and move into northern California and the northwest Great Basin. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be rather disorganized until stronger pressure falls occur in the Northwest late in the period. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low for most areas today. Some locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada. RH will likely be in the 10-15% range, but winds will be light. The potential for thunderstorms over sufficiently dry fuels is also too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present on the poleward side of a flattened upper-level ridge in the southern U.S. With time, a shortwave trough will amplify and move into northern California and the northwest Great Basin. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be rather disorganized until stronger pressure falls occur in the Northwest late in the period. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low for most areas today. Some locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada. RH will likely be in the 10-15% range, but winds will be light. The potential for thunderstorms over sufficiently dry fuels is also too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present on the poleward side of a flattened upper-level ridge in the southern U.S. With time, a shortwave trough will amplify and move into northern California and the northwest Great Basin. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be rather disorganized until stronger pressure falls occur in the Northwest late in the period. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low for most areas today. Some locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada. RH will likely be in the 10-15% range, but winds will be light. The potential for thunderstorms over sufficiently dry fuels is also too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present on the poleward side of a flattened upper-level ridge in the southern U.S. With time, a shortwave trough will amplify and move into northern California and the northwest Great Basin. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be rather disorganized until stronger pressure falls occur in the Northwest late in the period. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low for most areas today. Some locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada. RH will likely be in the 10-15% range, but winds will be light. The potential for thunderstorms over sufficiently dry fuels is also too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be present on the poleward side of a flattened upper-level ridge in the southern U.S. With time, a shortwave trough will amplify and move into northern California and the northwest Great Basin. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be rather disorganized until stronger pressure falls occur in the Northwest late in the period. Fire weather concerns are expected to be low for most areas today. Some locally elevated conditions are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada. RH will likely be in the 10-15% range, but winds will be light. The potential for thunderstorms over sufficiently dry fuels is also too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Central High Plains to Black Hills... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over western MT/ID. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern WY by 18z as a 500mb speed max, in excess of 40kt, translates toward the NE Panhandle. This short wave will begin to dig southeast during the latter half of the period, subsequently shifting into the mid MO Valley by 12/12z. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains through the day1 period. Given the influence of the continental airmass across the central Plains, the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted along the western periphery of the anticyclone from eastern WY into eastern CO. This will be the corridor of maximum destabilization, coincident with the large-scale ascent expected ahead of the short wave. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing early in the period across southern MT. This activity will propagate southeast toward western SD where renewed convection could develop by 21-22z, as convective temperatures are breached along the southwestern flank. At this time will maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with convection that evolves ahead of the short wave. However, there is some concern this activity may become a bit more organized, and this could necessitate higher severe probabilities during the late afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Central High Plains to Black Hills... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over western MT/ID. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern WY by 18z as a 500mb speed max, in excess of 40kt, translates toward the NE Panhandle. This short wave will begin to dig southeast during the latter half of the period, subsequently shifting into the mid MO Valley by 12/12z. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains through the day1 period. Given the influence of the continental airmass across the central Plains, the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted along the western periphery of the anticyclone from eastern WY into eastern CO. This will be the corridor of maximum destabilization, coincident with the large-scale ascent expected ahead of the short wave. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing early in the period across southern MT. This activity will propagate southeast toward western SD where renewed convection could develop by 21-22z, as convective temperatures are breached along the southwestern flank. At this time will maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with convection that evolves ahead of the short wave. However, there is some concern this activity may become a bit more organized, and this could necessitate higher severe probabilities during the late afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Central High Plains to Black Hills... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over western MT/ID. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern WY by 18z as a 500mb speed max, in excess of 40kt, translates toward the NE Panhandle. This short wave will begin to dig southeast during the latter half of the period, subsequently shifting into the mid MO Valley by 12/12z. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains through the day1 period. Given the influence of the continental airmass across the central Plains, the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted along the western periphery of the anticyclone from eastern WY into eastern CO. This will be the corridor of maximum destabilization, coincident with the large-scale ascent expected ahead of the short wave. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing early in the period across southern MT. This activity will propagate southeast toward western SD where renewed convection could develop by 21-22z, as convective temperatures are breached along the southwestern flank. At this time will maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with convection that evolves ahead of the short wave. However, there is some concern this activity may become a bit more organized, and this could necessitate higher severe probabilities during the late afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Central High Plains to Black Hills... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over western MT/ID. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern WY by 18z as a 500mb speed max, in excess of 40kt, translates toward the NE Panhandle. This short wave will begin to dig southeast during the latter half of the period, subsequently shifting into the mid MO Valley by 12/12z. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains through the day1 period. Given the influence of the continental airmass across the central Plains, the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted along the western periphery of the anticyclone from eastern WY into eastern CO. This will be the corridor of maximum destabilization, coincident with the large-scale ascent expected ahead of the short wave. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing early in the period across southern MT. This activity will propagate southeast toward western SD where renewed convection could develop by 21-22z, as convective temperatures are breached along the southwestern flank. At this time will maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with convection that evolves ahead of the short wave. However, there is some concern this activity may become a bit more organized, and this could necessitate higher severe probabilities during the late afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Black Hills of South Dakota. ...Central High Plains to Black Hills... Notable short-wave trough is currently located over western MT/ID. This feature is forecast to advance into eastern WY by 18z as a 500mb speed max, in excess of 40kt, translates toward the NE Panhandle. This short wave will begin to dig southeast during the latter half of the period, subsequently shifting into the mid MO Valley by 12/12z. At the surface, dominant high pressure will hold across the mid MS Valley such that southeasterly low-level trajectories will be maintained across the central High Plains through the day1 period. Given the influence of the continental airmass across the central Plains, the strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted along the western periphery of the anticyclone from eastern WY into eastern CO. This will be the corridor of maximum destabilization, coincident with the large-scale ascent expected ahead of the short wave. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing early in the period across southern MT. This activity will propagate southeast toward western SD where renewed convection could develop by 21-22z, as convective temperatures are breached along the southwestern flank. At this time will maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with convection that evolves ahead of the short wave. However, there is some concern this activity may become a bit more organized, and this could necessitate higher severe probabilities during the late afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, remain possible this evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is advancing east across the northern intermountain region early this evening. This feature is beginning to flatten the ridge over western WY and scattered convection has responded downstream where boundary-layer heating is maximized. 00z sounding from SLC exhibits near dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 4km, and modest deep-layer shear; although, PW values are not particularly high with values around one inch. Latest diagnostic data suggests pockets of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg extend from southern MT into eastern CO where considerably more buoyancy exists, especially across southeast CO into the northern TX Panhandle. Several gusts have exceeded 50kt with convection late this afternoon and this remains the primary concern for the next several hours. After sunset, boundary-layer cooling should hinder convective gusts as 0-3km lapse rates weaken. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, remain possible this evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is advancing east across the northern intermountain region early this evening. This feature is beginning to flatten the ridge over western WY and scattered convection has responded downstream where boundary-layer heating is maximized. 00z sounding from SLC exhibits near dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 4km, and modest deep-layer shear; although, PW values are not particularly high with values around one inch. Latest diagnostic data suggests pockets of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg extend from southern MT into eastern CO where considerably more buoyancy exists, especially across southeast CO into the northern TX Panhandle. Several gusts have exceeded 50kt with convection late this afternoon and this remains the primary concern for the next several hours. After sunset, boundary-layer cooling should hinder convective gusts as 0-3km lapse rates weaken. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps hail, remain possible this evening over parts of the Intermountain West and into the High Plains. ...01z Update... Mid-level short-wave trough is advancing east across the northern intermountain region early this evening. This feature is beginning to flatten the ridge over western WY and scattered convection has responded downstream where boundary-layer heating is maximized. 00z sounding from SLC exhibits near dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 4km, and modest deep-layer shear; although, PW values are not particularly high with values around one inch. Latest diagnostic data suggests pockets of MLCAPE around 500 J/kg extend from southern MT into eastern CO where considerably more buoyancy exists, especially across southeast CO into the northern TX Panhandle. Several gusts have exceeded 50kt with convection late this afternoon and this remains the primary concern for the next several hours. After sunset, boundary-layer cooling should hinder convective gusts as 0-3km lapse rates weaken. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2024 Read more

MD 1878 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1878 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern/central Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102242Z - 110015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe winds (max intensity of 50-60 mph) may occur as a line of convection moves towards I-15. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized line of convection has developed in west-central Utah this afternoon. Aided by enhanced mid-level winds on the southern flank of a mid-level trough, this activity is moving east towards parts of the I-15 corridor. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote some risk of strong to severe winds (likely peaking in the 50-60 mph range). There is a marginal increase in MLCIN right along the edge of the terrain. These wind gusts will likely remain isolated through the remainder of the afternoon. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC... LAT...LON 39571313 40211276 40701250 40721212 40451159 39891167 39521202 39261250 39271271 39571313 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 10 22:45:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1878 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1878 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern/central Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102242Z - 110015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe winds (max intensity of 50-60 mph) may occur as a line of convection moves towards I-15. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized line of convection has developed in west-central Utah this afternoon. Aided by enhanced mid-level winds on the southern flank of a mid-level trough, this activity is moving east towards parts of the I-15 corridor. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote some risk of strong to severe winds (likely peaking in the 50-60 mph range). There is a marginal increase in MLCIN right along the edge of the terrain. These wind gusts will likely remain isolated through the remainder of the afternoon. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 08/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC... LAT...LON 39571313 40211276 40701250 40721212 40451159 39891167 39521202 39261250 39271271 39571313 Read more