Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0619 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more