Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Aug 12 17:35:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND NORTHERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of the coastal Carolinas, central High Plains, the eastern Great Basin northward into parts of the north-central Rockies, and northern Montana. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains... Upslope flow will persist across the central High Plains, helping to maintain moderate low-level moisture across region. Afternoon dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 60s in the southeast CO/northeast NM/western Panhandles vicinity to the mid to upper 50s across eastern WY. This low-level moisture will help support moderate buoyancy during the afternoon/evening, although some limited capping may linger. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain before then progressing eastward into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Generally moderate deep-layer vertical shear coupled with the potential for some remaining convective inhibition suggest the severe potential will remain isolated, with damaging gusts and/or large hail as the primary severe risks. Thunderstorms will likely persist eastward into more of the central Plains, supported by moderate buoyancy and shear and the development of modest low-level jet. Isolated instances of large hail are possible, but the overall storm severity will likely be tempered by limited instability. ...Intermountain West into the Northern High Plains... Morning satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over TX covering much of the southern third of the CONUS and also extending northward into MT. Several shortwave troughs are moving through the westerlies within the northern periphery of this ridging, including a low-amplitude shortwave currently moving into ID and northern/central NV and another, more defined shortwave farther west off the northern CA coast. Eastward/northeastward progression of these waves will bring greater mid-level moisture and increased large-scale forcing for ascent, supporting the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region. Mid-level flow will remain modest, but a few more organized/persistent updrafts are possible. High cloud bases atop steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few stronger gusts as these more persistent storms form into clusters, particularly from northern/central UT into far eastern ID and far western WY and northern MT. ...Coastal Carolinas... Far southern periphery of an upper trough currently extending from Quebec through the Upper OH Valley will glance this region today as it progresses eastward. Modest (i.e. 20-30kt) mid-level flow will overspread a moisture-rich airmass (i.e. PWs over 2") in place south of a front. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this boundary by early afternoon then propagate toward and off the coast by early evening. A few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts could be noted with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEVADA... The primary forecast change for this update is an expansion of the dry-thunderstorm risk area across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Morning soundings from BOI, OTX, and MFR all show cooler mid-level temperatures compared to the previous 24 hours, which should support thunderstorm chances today through tonight as lift associated with an approaching trough overspreads the region. GOES imagery also depicts a plume of 0.4 to 0.6 inch PWAT values across northern CA into central ID that was well sampled by the BOI sounding, and suggests a slightly better probability for dry thunderstorms exists through this corridor. A few lightning-related fire starts associated with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms have been reported over the past 24 hours across WA and ID, and a lack of widespread wetting rainfall has maintained dry fuels that will support a continued fire weather concern for today and into the early morning hours Tuesday. Other minor adjustments include an expansion of the Elevated risk area into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where ensemble guidance has shown a consistent signal for a few hours of dry conditions with 15-20 mph winds. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough within broader cyclonic flow in the Northwest will move through central California into western Nevada today. A surface trough in the Northwest/northern Rockies will promote dry and breezy conditions in parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Great Basin... Broadly elevated fire weather conditions are expected over much of Nevada into far southern Idaho. Winds of 15-20 mph will be the most common along with 10-20% RH during the afternoon. A small region of northwest Nevada may experience briefly critical conditions as both the terrain and the mid-level jet help to enhance surface winds to 20-25 mph. ...Northwest... Forcing for ascent from the upper trough will promote isolated thunderstorms from north-central California into central Idaho. With the mid-level jet more focused in northern Nevada, storm motions will not be overly fast. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are most probable. Recent CAM guidance also differs on the exact degree of coverage, but enough confidence in at least isolated activity is present for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more