Severe Storms

MD 1890 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS...AND THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1890 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0826 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into Western Kansas...and the far western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130126Z - 130330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Convection has organized into a few linear segments as storms have progressed eastward onto the High Plains of eastern Colorado and the far northwestern TX/western OK Panhandles. These storms could be capable of a few severe gusts, but are moving into a stabilizing environment. Weather Watch issuance is not likely at this time. DISCUSSION...Afternoon thunderstorms have begun to coalesce into two linear convective segments -- one in eastern Colorado, the other in the far western Oklahoma Panhandle -- that will be capable of a few severe gusts this evening. The greatest threat for severe winds will be along the leading edge of any developing bow echoes, though the stabilizing nocturnal boundary-layer could inhibit some of the higher-momentum air from reaching the surface. Additionally, the observed 00Z DDC sounding, along with SPC mesoanalysis, suggests both MCSs are moving into increasing MUCINH that will likely cause convection to weaken with eastward extent. Given these factors, Weather Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. ..Halbert/Wendt/Edwards.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35690251 35850286 35980317 36080337 36330357 37670434 38360458 38500470 38640445 38760430 39040412 39240396 39410374 39430358 39340317 39200269 39090222 38860163 38700123 38370091 37950086 37440079 37000081 36510084 36130098 35870134 35750184 35690251 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist over the next several hours across the central High Plains area. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms are ongoing at this time across portions of the central Plains -- from eastern Colorado south to northeastern New Mexico. A modestly moist/moderately unstable airmass persists across this area, with evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analysis indicating that 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE persists. Though mid-level westerlies remain relatively weak (less than 30 kt), low-level easterly flow is contributing to sufficient 0-6km shear for organized storms -- including a couple of supercells. Some clustering of storms is occurring near/east of the Palmer Ridge, with some potential for eastward propagation toward lower elevations -- including embedded risk for locally strong/damaging winds and possibly hail. Still, overall risk should remain limited as the environment slowly stabilizes this evening, and thus will maintain only MRGL risk through the evening. ..Goss.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist over the next several hours across the central High Plains area. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms are ongoing at this time across portions of the central Plains -- from eastern Colorado south to northeastern New Mexico. A modestly moist/moderately unstable airmass persists across this area, with evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analysis indicating that 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE persists. Though mid-level westerlies remain relatively weak (less than 30 kt), low-level easterly flow is contributing to sufficient 0-6km shear for organized storms -- including a couple of supercells. Some clustering of storms is occurring near/east of the Palmer Ridge, with some potential for eastward propagation toward lower elevations -- including embedded risk for locally strong/damaging winds and possibly hail. Still, overall risk should remain limited as the environment slowly stabilizes this evening, and thus will maintain only MRGL risk through the evening. ..Goss.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist over the next several hours across the central High Plains area. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms are ongoing at this time across portions of the central Plains -- from eastern Colorado south to northeastern New Mexico. A modestly moist/moderately unstable airmass persists across this area, with evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analysis indicating that 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE persists. Though mid-level westerlies remain relatively weak (less than 30 kt), low-level easterly flow is contributing to sufficient 0-6km shear for organized storms -- including a couple of supercells. Some clustering of storms is occurring near/east of the Palmer Ridge, with some potential for eastward propagation toward lower elevations -- including embedded risk for locally strong/damaging winds and possibly hail. Still, overall risk should remain limited as the environment slowly stabilizes this evening, and thus will maintain only MRGL risk through the evening. ..Goss.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist over the next several hours across the central High Plains area. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Scattered strong/isolated severe storms are ongoing at this time across portions of the central Plains -- from eastern Colorado south to northeastern New Mexico. A modestly moist/moderately unstable airmass persists across this area, with evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analysis indicating that 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE persists. Though mid-level westerlies remain relatively weak (less than 30 kt), low-level easterly flow is contributing to sufficient 0-6km shear for organized storms -- including a couple of supercells. Some clustering of storms is occurring near/east of the Palmer Ridge, with some potential for eastward propagation toward lower elevations -- including embedded risk for locally strong/damaging winds and possibly hail. Still, overall risk should remain limited as the environment slowly stabilizes this evening, and thus will maintain only MRGL risk through the evening. ..Goss.. 08/13/2024 Read more

MD 1889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1889 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122334Z - 130100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A supercell thunderstorm capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado is tracking southward across portions of northeast Colorado. Given the isolated nature of this storm, weather watch issuance is not likely. DISCUSSION...The severe weather threat associated with a southward-moving supercell in northeast Colorado may persist for the next 1-2 hours. The storm has exhibited signs of prolonged low-level rotation, has produced 2.00 inch hail, and is moving into an environment that will continue to support updraft rotation. Forecast proximity hodographs indicate there is sufficient curvature of the low-level flow and streamwise vorticity to support continued low-level mesocyclone development and cycling. Both the curvature and magnitude of the low-level hodograph is expected to increase as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens with the decoupling of the boundary-layer. However, recent radar trends suggest the storm is struggling to stay ahead of its own outflow, where temperatures are 15-20 F cooler than unmodified inflow. This supercell will likely undergo several phases of organized low-level rotation, followed by surging outflow, until the boundary-layer eventually stabilizes this evening and convection becomes more elevated in nature. ..Halbert/Wendt/Edwards.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU... LAT...LON 40790427 40960414 40980387 40870363 40680344 40460333 40260326 40120319 39920338 39830370 39860389 40000414 40140421 40330425 40510427 40790427 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

MD 1888 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1888 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Areas affected...North-central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122213Z - 130015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A potential will exist for marginally severe gusts and hail early this evening across parts of north-central Montana. No watch issuance is anticipated. DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough over the northern Rockies, embedded in southwest mid-level flow. At the surface, a mesolow is analyzed over north-central Montana, with upslope east-southeasterly flow located across much of northern and eastern Montana. Isolated thunderstorms have developed near and to the north of the low along a narrow corridor of instability, where the RAP is estimating SBCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Short-term forecast soundings in north-central Montana early this evening have a relatively dry boundary layer, but show steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This may be enough for a marginal severe threat for a few hours. Strong gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47221015 47150938 47340862 47740811 48320827 48880909 48961048 48861165 48541205 48011188 47221015 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 12 23:50:01 UTC 2024.

MD 1889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1889 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122334Z - 130100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A supercell thunderstorm capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado is tracking southward across portions of northeast Colorado. Given the isolated nature of this storm, weather watch issuance is not likely. DISCUSSION...The severe weather threat associated with a southward-moving supercell in northeast Colorado may persist for the next 1-2 hours. The storm has exhibited signs of prolonged low-level rotation, has produced 2.00 inch hail, and is moving into an environment that will continue to support updraft rotation. Forecast proximity hodographs indicate there is sufficient curvature of the low-level flow and streamwise vorticity to support continued low-level mesocyclone development and cycling. Both the curvature and magnitude of the low-level hodograph is expected to increase as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens with the decoupling of the boundary-layer. However, recent radar trends suggest the storm is struggling to stay ahead of its own outflow, where temperatures are 15-20 F cooler than unmodified inflow. This supercell will likely undergo several phases of organized low-level rotation, followed by surging outflow, until the boundary-layer eventually stabilizes this evening and convection becomes more elevated in nature. ..Halbert/Wendt/Edwards.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU... LAT...LON 40790427 40960414 40980387 40870363 40680344 40460333 40260326 40120319 39920338 39830370 39860389 40000414 40140421 40330425 40510427 40790427 Read more

MD 1888 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1888 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Areas affected...North-central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122213Z - 130015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A potential will exist for marginally severe gusts and hail early this evening across parts of north-central Montana. No watch issuance is anticipated. DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough over the northern Rockies, embedded in southwest mid-level flow. At the surface, a mesolow is analyzed over north-central Montana, with upslope east-southeasterly flow located across much of northern and eastern Montana. Isolated thunderstorms have developed near and to the north of the low along a narrow corridor of instability, where the RAP is estimating SBCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Short-term forecast soundings in north-central Montana early this evening have a relatively dry boundary layer, but show steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear. This may be enough for a marginal severe threat for a few hours. Strong gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 47221015 47150938 47340862 47740811 48320827 48880909 48961048 48861165 48541205 48011188 47221015 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

MD 1887 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM...SOUTHEAST CO...AND THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1887 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeast NM...southeast CO...and the far western OK Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122053Z - 122300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected during the next few hours. The severe risk appears too limited for a watch at this time. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage across portions of southeastern CO and northeastern NM during the next few hours, as ample diurnal heating continues to erode convective inhibition across the area. Moist, east-southeasterly low-level flow beneath strengthening westerly flow aloft, will yield weak/moderate surface-based instability (increasing with eastward extent) and around 30-40 kt of effective shear (characterized by a mostly straight hodograph). This will support the potential for a couple organized eastward-spreading clusters and/or semi-discrete supercell structures. Isolated large hail (generally up to 1.5 inches) and locally severe gusts (55-65 mph) will be possible with the more robust activity. Overall, the severe risk appears too limited for a watch at this time, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36010470 36310483 37250482 37850460 38260413 38320332 38040282 37440257 36760263 36170308 36000341 35880395 36010470 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more