Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High Plains... Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist across the West today. Daytime heating will support modest CAPE development -- greatest from Utah north across eastern Idaho, and over the High Plains. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected across a broad area, though with shear generally limited -- thus limiting overall severe potential. The most favorable CAPE/shear combination is expected from southwestern Montana southward into Utah, where a couple of supercells could evolve. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible, though questions regarding overall coverage of the stronger convection precludes an upgrade to slight risk at this time. Convection should weaken through the evening, as the airmass gradually stabilizes. Storms evolving across the High Plains may linger into the overnight hours, with convection across Colorado possibly growing upscale into an eastward-moving cluster. Potential for locally damaging wind gusts during the afternoon may therefore persist after dark, spreading across the High Plains and into Kansas through the evening and into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains... As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone. ...South Carolina... Despite weak lapse rates aloft, some afternoon destabilization is forecast in the vicinity of a weak/remnant front progged to lie across South Carolina during the afternoon. The front should focus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms, which should move southeastward on account of moderate mid-level west-northwesterly flow atop the area. With the moderate northwesterlies contributing to sufficient shear for at least multicell organization, a few stronger storms are expected -- possibly congealing into a southeastward-moving cluster by late afternoon. The more vigorous storms will be capable of strong to possibly locally damaging wind gusts, before convection weakens/move offshore. ..Goss/Halbert.. 08/13/2024 Read more