Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the Midwest and mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern/Central Plains... An initially weak upper trough should gradually consolidate and form into a closed low over the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A corresponding increase in westerly mid-level flow should occur across parts of the Midwest into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low should gradually occlude as it meanders over the Upper Midwest beneath the developing upper low. Although low-level convergence along an associated cold front extending southwestward from the surface low should remain fairly limited, a rather moist and unstable airmass should be in place ahead of the front by Thursday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and mid MS Valley. Early day convection should move eastward across these areas and weaken, with ample daytime heating in its wake. This heating combined with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly, and potentially extremely, unstable airmass. Increasing mid-level flow through the day should support strengthening deep-layer shear as well, with various NAM/GFS forecast soundings showing a veering wind profile with height through mid levels. This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells and associated large hail threat. Sufficient low-level shear may also exist for a couple of tornadoes. However, the weak low-level convergence along the front leads to some uncertainty in overall thunderstorm coverage and placement. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been included where most guidance shows a convective QPF signal Thursday afternoon through late evening. Some chance exists for a bowing cluster to develop eastward across the Midwest, although confidence in this scenario remains fairly low. A Marginal Risk extends southwestward along the length of the weak front/wind shift into parts of the southern/central Plains. Although coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain more isolated across these regions, a well-mixed boundary layer could still support severe wind gusts with any high-based convection that can develop. ..Gleason.. 08/13/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging over the southern tier of the CONUS should be suppressed by a slow moving upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Day 4/Friday. Moderate to locally strong instability should once again be in place along/ahead of a weak front. Sufficient mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should exist to support at least an isolated severe threat across parts of the OH Valley/Midwest into the mid MS Valley and southern/central Plains. However, the presence of prior convection and only weak low-level convergence along the front lend low confidence in delineating a corridor of greater severe potential across these regions Friday afternoon/evening. Have therefore not included a 15% severe area at this time. For this weekend into early next week, an upper low should develop and remain over the eastern Pacific, off the Northwest Coast. Upper ridging is forecast to build over much of the West and Rockies/Plains, with upper troughing persisting over the eastern states. Some severe threat may continue each day across parts of the Plains into the Southeast and eastern states, along and south/east of a weak front. But, the overall synoptic pattern suggests limited predictability in highlighting focused areas of greater severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging over the southern tier of the CONUS should be suppressed by a slow moving upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Day 4/Friday. Moderate to locally strong instability should once again be in place along/ahead of a weak front. Sufficient mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should exist to support at least an isolated severe threat across parts of the OH Valley/Midwest into the mid MS Valley and southern/central Plains. However, the presence of prior convection and only weak low-level convergence along the front lend low confidence in delineating a corridor of greater severe potential across these regions Friday afternoon/evening. Have therefore not included a 15% severe area at this time. For this weekend into early next week, an upper low should develop and remain over the eastern Pacific, off the Northwest Coast. Upper ridging is forecast to build over much of the West and Rockies/Plains, with upper troughing persisting over the eastern states. Some severe threat may continue each day across parts of the Plains into the Southeast and eastern states, along and south/east of a weak front. But, the overall synoptic pattern suggests limited predictability in highlighting focused areas of greater severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging over the southern tier of the CONUS should be suppressed by a slow moving upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Day 4/Friday. Moderate to locally strong instability should once again be in place along/ahead of a weak front. Sufficient mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should exist to support at least an isolated severe threat across parts of the OH Valley/Midwest into the mid MS Valley and southern/central Plains. However, the presence of prior convection and only weak low-level convergence along the front lend low confidence in delineating a corridor of greater severe potential across these regions Friday afternoon/evening. Have therefore not included a 15% severe area at this time. For this weekend into early next week, an upper low should develop and remain over the eastern Pacific, off the Northwest Coast. Upper ridging is forecast to build over much of the West and Rockies/Plains, with upper troughing persisting over the eastern states. Some severe threat may continue each day across parts of the Plains into the Southeast and eastern states, along and south/east of a weak front. But, the overall synoptic pattern suggests limited predictability in highlighting focused areas of greater severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging over the southern tier of the CONUS should be suppressed by a slow moving upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Day 4/Friday. Moderate to locally strong instability should once again be in place along/ahead of a weak front. Sufficient mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should exist to support at least an isolated severe threat across parts of the OH Valley/Midwest into the mid MS Valley and southern/central Plains. However, the presence of prior convection and only weak low-level convergence along the front lend low confidence in delineating a corridor of greater severe potential across these regions Friday afternoon/evening. Have therefore not included a 15% severe area at this time. For this weekend into early next week, an upper low should develop and remain over the eastern Pacific, off the Northwest Coast. Upper ridging is forecast to build over much of the West and Rockies/Plains, with upper troughing persisting over the eastern states. Some severe threat may continue each day across parts of the Plains into the Southeast and eastern states, along and south/east of a weak front. But, the overall synoptic pattern suggests limited predictability in highlighting focused areas of greater severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging over the southern tier of the CONUS should be suppressed by a slow moving upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Day 4/Friday. Moderate to locally strong instability should once again be in place along/ahead of a weak front. Sufficient mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should exist to support at least an isolated severe threat across parts of the OH Valley/Midwest into the mid MS Valley and southern/central Plains. However, the presence of prior convection and only weak low-level convergence along the front lend low confidence in delineating a corridor of greater severe potential across these regions Friday afternoon/evening. Have therefore not included a 15% severe area at this time. For this weekend into early next week, an upper low should develop and remain over the eastern Pacific, off the Northwest Coast. Upper ridging is forecast to build over much of the West and Rockies/Plains, with upper troughing persisting over the eastern states. Some severe threat may continue each day across parts of the Plains into the Southeast and eastern states, along and south/east of a weak front. But, the overall synoptic pattern suggests limited predictability in highlighting focused areas of greater severe potential. Read more