Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced to portions of eastern OR into ID. Isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across far eastern OR, and should migrate eastward over the central ID mountains through the afternoon with little in the way of wetting rainfall given fast storm motions. A second round of convection remains possible during the late afternoon across southeast OR/southwest ID, and will likely feature dry convection given forecast PWAT values at/below 0.6 inch. While ensemble guidance has trended towards higher probability for this to occur, the overall signal remains fairly weak. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the upper trough will lift out of the northern Great Basin and into the northern High Plains, all while losing amplitude. While some increase in mid-level winds may occur over the Great Basin, this will not occur until late in the period. At the surface, the pressure pattern will be more disorganized than Monday and stronger winds will likely be diurnally/terrain-driven. ...Nevada... Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible as RH will still fall to 15-20% during the afternoon. Slightly stronger winds appear possible in southern Nevada, but fuels are also less receptive than farther north. Sustained elevated conditions are not currently expected. ...Central Idaho... With the mid-level trough moving through early in the period, mid/upper-level cloud cover will be possible. This may impact destabilization enough to reduce potential storm coverage during the afternoon. Should storms occur, some could be dry. Confidence in coverage is too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the eastern Great Basin into the northern/central High Plains and central Plains, as well as portions of South Carolina and vicinity. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, the larger-scale pattern will feature a mid-level trough on the West Coast with a ridge across the central CONUS and a positively tilted trough along the east coast. This pattern will shift east with the mid-level ridge strengthening through the period. However, despite the strengthening ridge, some weak mid-level perturbations within the flow will likely be a catalyst for thunderstorm development from eastern Colorado, across the Plains, and into northwest Missouri Tuesday night. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Northern/Central High Plains... Broad height falls ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies will lead to widespread thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The greatest instability, and thus potential for more robust updrafts will exist from eastern Utah into eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. 35 to 40 knots of shear should be sufficient for a few supercells capable of large hail in this region. Elsewhere, severe-wind gusts will be the primary threat amid high-based convection promoting strong downdraft production. An additional area of focused convection will exist across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Convection will first develop across the higher terrain before into moderate instability across the Plains. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak closer to the ridge axis, but 50 knot southwesterly flow is forecast above 400mb which should help organize the stronger storms and lead to a threat for some supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. There is a consistent signal that storms may congeal into a MCS across northeast Colorado and move across southern Nebraska during the overnight period. The strengthening low-level jet should maintain this MCS and forecast soundings show sufficient instability/shear for some isolated severe threat during the overnight period. ...South Carolina... A cold front will linger across South Carolina on Tuesday with mid 70s dewpoints south of it. This will allow for moderate destabilization ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough which will approach during the day. Warm mid-level temperatures and thus, weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for severe storms. However, there will be sufficient instability 1000-2000 J/kg and moderate shear 40-45 knots which may allow for isolated strong to severe storms. Given the warm temperatures aloft, the primary threat will be damaging wind. ...Southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri... Tuesday night, a low-level jet will strengthen to 40 to 45 knots across the central Plains amid a very moist environment. As isentropic ascent increases early Wednesday morning, MUCAPE will increase to near 3000 J/kg. Westerly effective shear is forecast around 35 knots which will be sufficient for some storm organization including the potential for a few supercell structures. While heavy rain will likely be the primary threat, some large hail or severe wind may be possible. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more