Severe Storms

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CDR TO 40 NW PHP. ..BROYLES..08/11/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-055-071-093-095-102-103-121-112340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON JACKSON MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1883 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618...619... FOR FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1883 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Areas affected...Far Southwest South Dakota...Western Nebraska...Northeast Colorado...Far Northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618...619... Valid 112218Z - 120015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618, 619 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will continue across the central Plains over the next few hours. There is a localized potential for hail over 2 inches in diameter. DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows northwest flow over much of the central U.S., with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is located from southwestern South Dakota extending southward into far eastern Colorado. Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing just to the east of the boundary. The RAP suggests that the storms are near an axis of instability, with MLCAPE just to the east of the front estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs also show moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the central High Plains. 0-6 km shear appears to be in the 40 to 50 knot range along and near the instability axis. This will continue to support supercell development over the next few hours. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible locally, mainly over far northeast Colorado and far northwest Kansas, where the combination of instability and shear appears to be maximized. ..Broyles.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 41640244 40420263 39900254 39570221 39510183 39620134 40040105 41390060 42350032 42910030 43230057 43410129 43350191 43170218 42840231 41640244 Read more

MD 1883 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618...619... FOR FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1883 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Areas affected...Far Southwest South Dakota...Western Nebraska...Northeast Colorado...Far Northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618...619... Valid 112218Z - 120015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618, 619 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will continue across the central Plains over the next few hours. There is a localized potential for hail over 2 inches in diameter. DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows northwest flow over much of the central U.S., with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is located from southwestern South Dakota extending southward into far eastern Colorado. Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing just to the east of the boundary. The RAP suggests that the storms are near an axis of instability, with MLCAPE just to the east of the front estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs also show moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the central High Plains. 0-6 km shear appears to be in the 40 to 50 knot range along and near the instability axis. This will continue to support supercell development over the next few hours. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible locally, mainly over far northeast Colorado and far northwest Kansas, where the combination of instability and shear appears to be maximized. ..Broyles.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 41640244 40420263 39900254 39570221 39510183 39620134 40040105 41390060 42350032 42910030 43230057 43410129 43350191 43170218 42840231 41640244 Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW LAA TO 25 E AIA TO 60 S PHP. ..BROYLES..08/11/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-095-115-125-120040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON PHILLIPS SEDGWICK YUMA KSC023-109-153-181-193-199-120040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC005-029-031-049-057-069-075-087-091-101-117-135-120040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN Read more

WW 619 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 112040Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are strengthening across the Nebraska panhandle and northeast Colorado. This activity will spread eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northwest of Mullen NE to 40 miles south of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 618... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1881 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF UT INTO WESTERN CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1881 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Areas affected...Parts of UT into western CO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112046Z - 112245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps some hail are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of UT into western CO this afternoon. Strong heating of a relatively moist environment has resulted in modest destabilization, with MLCAPE increasing above 500 J/kg in some areas. This region is on the southern periphery of modest midlevel west-northwesterlies associated with a shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies/High Plains. Effective shear of 20-30 kt could support at least transient storm organization through the afternoon. While some hail cannot be ruled out, isolated severe gusts will likely become the primary threat with time, as outflows grow and intensify within the well-mixed environment. ..Dean/Hart.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 39221384 39911330 40020948 39990747 38890739 37600802 37460952 37311366 37821377 39221384 Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CDR TO 40 NW PHP. ..BROYLES..08/11/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-055-071-093-095-102-103-121-112340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON JACKSON MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CDR TO 40 NW PHP. ..BROYLES..08/11/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-055-071-093-095-102-103-121-112340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON JACKSON MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 618 SEVERE TSTM SD WY 111830Z - 120100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 700 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon across the watch area. A few severe storms are expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Rapid City SD to 65 miles southeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1882 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 618... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SD INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1882 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southwestern SD into far northwestern NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618... Valid 112053Z - 112230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind and large hail threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 618 -- especially with an organized southeastward-moving cluster. DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KUDX depicts an organized cluster of thunderstorms (with an intense embedded supercell) tracking southeastward at around 30 kt. This activity will continue to be aided by 40 kt of 0-6 km shear (per UDX VWP data) oriented perpendicular to the associated gust front. Additionally, pre-convective low-level lapse rates continue to diurnally steepen amid middle/upper 50s dewpoints -- which should also support maintained storm intensity with southeastward extent. The primary concern is severe wind gusts (generally up to 70 mph) and large hail to around 2 inches in diameter. While less certain, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the embedded supercell mode and moist/backed east-southeasterly low-level flow to the east/southeast of these storms. ..Weinman.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43710293 44020276 44110257 44080226 43800176 43330160 42920199 42870257 43120296 43440321 43710293 Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 618 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/11/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 618 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-055-071-093-095-102-103-121-112240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT HAAKON JACKSON MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON TODD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/11/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-121-125-112240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-109-153-181-193-199-112240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC005-029-031-049-057-069-075-087-091-101-117-135-161-112240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN Read more

WW 0619 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 619 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..08/11/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 619 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-121-125-112240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-109-153-181-193-199-112240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE LOGAN RAWLINS SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC005-029-031-049-057-069-075-087-091-101-117-135-161-112240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE CHERRY DEUEL DUNDY GARDEN Read more

MD 1880 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST NE...FAR SOUTHEAST WY...AND FAR NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1880 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Areas affected...Northeast CO...southwest NE...far southeast WY...and far northwest KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111917Z - 112115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The potential for a few severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase over the next few hours. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening and expanding along an east/west-oriented confluence zone extending from southeastern WY into the southwestern NE Panhandle -- and isolated convective initiation is underway here. Additional attempts at development are ongoing along a lee trough extending northward across southwest WY. Given this focused mesoscale ascent and continued diurnal heating of a relatively moist boundary layer (middle/upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints), current expectation is for a few thunderstorms to evolve/intensify during the next couple hours before spreading east-southeastward. The CYS VWP is sampling a unidirectional westerly shear profile (around 35 kt of 0-6 km shear), and this will continue increasing to around 40-50 kt with the approach of a midlevel jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms may intensify into organized clusters and/or supercell structures, posing a risk of large hail (generally up to 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts to around 70 mph. Modest large-scale ascent and substantial MLCINH with eastward extent cast uncertainty on the overall coverage of the severe threat, though trends are being monitored for a possible watch this afternoon. ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40690381 40960413 41270421 41630423 41970412 42180382 42190335 41670208 40830143 39410123 39000162 38940247 39190294 40240355 40690381 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains limited for the upcoming work week and into next weekend. The upper-level shortwave trough currently deepening across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to propagate into the central CONUS by the start of the forecast period. In its wake, a highly amplified upper ridge will likely become established over the central Plains/Rockies with mean troughing along the West Coast. This synoptic pattern will favor rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of central TX and much of NV and CA. ...Nevada and California... Cooling temperatures across NV/CA should modulate fire concerns to some degree, but the mean trough along the West Coast will favor the passage of embedded shortwave troughs across the region. Such features have inherent low predictability at this range, but will support breezy conditions over a region with dry fuels. Consequently, localized fire weather concerns are possible later this week, but confidence remains low for any particular day. ...Pacific Northwest... Deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show considerable spread regarding precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest for the upcoming work week. The typically drier GFS/GEFS solutions hint at the potential for thunderstorms, including dry thunderstorms, around mid-week, most likely on D6/Thursday afternoon. Ensembles hint at the potential for wetting rainfall, so confidence in the dry thunderstorm threat is too low for highlights, but given recent lightning-related fire starts, trends will be monitored. ...Central Texas... The probability for widespread wetting rainfall appears limited through the end of the upcoming work week across central to western TX as the upper-level ridge begins to build. Likewise, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the low 100s, which should act to cure fine fuels. Weak pressure gradient winds under the ridge should limit fire concerns, but trends in wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more