Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon into the early evening. Other storms with strong wind gusts may affect parts of Utah, northern Arizona, and western Colorado. Expanded the Marginal and Slight Risk farther north into South Dakota where severe thunderstorm watch 618 is in effect and severe storms are ongoing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary. For more discussion on the watch 618, see MCD 1879 and for discussion farther south where storms are starting to develop in northeastern Colorado and vicinity, see MCD 1880. A few stronger storms have developed in Upstate New York. However, given the weak buoyancy, expect any severe threat to remain marginal and isolated. ..Bentley.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...High Plains... Morning water vapor loops show a shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max moving across WY. This feature and its associated lift will move into the High Plains this afternoon, promoting widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings from southwest SD southward into western NE/KS show steep mid-level lapse rates, considerable deep layer shear, and pockets of MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for supercell structures capable of large hail and eventually damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening. ...Great Basin... Ample mid-level moisture is present today across much of southern UT, northern AZ, and western CO. Strong heating should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout the region. Steep low/mid level lapse rates and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a risk of damaging winds in the strongest cores. Read more

MD 1879 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1879 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southwestern SD and northwestern NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 111817Z - 112015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Portions of southwestern South Dakota into northwestern Nebraska are being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch. DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving over far northeastern WY and over the Black Hills early this afternoon -- likely aided by ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough (and associated MCV) tracking eastward across southwest MT, and heating over the higher terrain. Continue diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will continue to erode boundary-layer inhibition and contribute to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This, coupled with long/mostly straight hodographs (around 40-45 kt of effective shear), will support a gradual increase in thunderstorm intensity/organization through the afternoon. The primary concern with any initial semi-discrete/splitting supercell structures is large hail (generally 1.5-1.75 inches) and locally severe gusts. Thunderstorms will generally track southeastward into northwestern Nebraska through the afternoon, where continued heating will support a corridor of sufficient (albeit weak) surface-based instability for a continued severe risk. There is uncertainty on the overall coverage of severe thunderstorms across the area, and the need for a watch is uncertain. ..Weinman/Hart.. 08/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43810397 44330401 44510388 44650348 44600304 44410225 44060146 43400067 42800059 42200073 41920133 41770240 41950340 42380361 43370387 43810397 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA... A critical risk area has been introduced to portions of northwest NV. Recent deterministic solutions hint that the primary axis of the upper-level trough (and attendant mid-level cold front) should be impinging along/just east of the northern Sierra around peak heating Monday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow associated with this feature should bolster downslope winds, resulting in sustained winds above 20 mph with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance, which shows high (60+ %) probability for winds over 20 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels and RH values in the low teens, a Critical risk area appears warranted. Additionally, confidence in thunderstorm development has increased for late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning as the upper trough deepens and shifts east towards the northern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest a mixture of wet/dry thunderstorms is most probable, but recent lightning starts in the region under similar thermodynamic regimes suggest that any isolated convection will pose a fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 08/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will pivot northeastward into the northern Great Basin on Monday. This feature will push a surface boundary into the Northwest. Dry and windy conditions are most likely ahead of the surface boundary across a large portion of Nevada into southern Idaho. Along with a stronger pressure gradient, mid-level winds will also be enhanced with the trough overhead leading to stronger gusts as well. Winds will reach 15-20 mph with some local areas of 20-25 mph. RH will fall into the 10-15% by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected. Forcing for ascent in the Northwest will be relatively weak as the trough will be displaced to the south. There is some potential for isolated thunderstorms developing in central/eastern Oregon. Storm motions would be fast enough that some of this activity could be dry if it develops, but confidence in that scenario is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0618 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0618 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0618 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0618 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 11 17:47:02 UTC 2024.