Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the northern/central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... A band of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across a broad region of isentropic ascent from southeast South Dakota to southern Missouri. As the low-level jet weakens through the morning, expect the intensity of these storms to lessen as they move east into a more stable airmass. To the west, an unstable airmass is forecast across much of the central and northern Plains in the vicinity of a broad surface trough. At least weak to moderate instability is forecast with the potential for greater instability in eastern NE/KS where higher dewpoints (upper 60s to low 70s) are forecast. The breakdown of the upper-level ridge will lead to height falls across much of the central and northern Plains. Given the unstable environment across much of the area, this weak upper-level forcing combined with the surface trough will likely result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the central and northern Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. A more focused threat may exist farther south across eastern Kansas in Nebraska. Some enhancement of the mid-level flow ahead of the ridge breakdown may lead to a localized region of more favorable wind shear, co-located with the forecast greater instability. If this occurs, particularly with the development of a surface low as forecast by the NAM/ECMWF, a locally greater severe weather threat may occur across this region. At this time, uncertainty in the mesoscale features which will impact this potential are too great to warrant higher severe weather probabilities. ..Bentley.. 08/12/2024 Read more

MD 1886 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST/NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1886 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southeastern Wyoming into northeast/north-central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121905Z - 122100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for isolated large hail and strong to locally severe gusts will gradually increase through the afternoon. The overall severe threat appears too marginal/localized for a watch. DISCUSSION...Latest day cloud phase satellite imagery indicates deepening boundary-layer cumulus along the Front Range and northward along the higher terrain into southeastern WY. Isolated thunderstorms have initiated in southeastern WY, where diurnal heating has eroded inhibition locally. Over the next several hours, continued heating amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints should favor additional thunderstorm development along the higher terrain, before spreading eastward into the richer boundary-layer moisture. Sufficient (albeit weak) surface-based instability and effective shear increasing to around 30-40 kt could promote a few organized storms, including the potential for a supercell or two. Severe hail (generally up to 1.5 inches) and strong to locally severe gusts are possible with any longer-lived storms. However, current thinking is that the severe risk will be too localized/marginal for a watch. ..Weinman/Mosier.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41330521 41880499 42050473 42160446 42120411 41690403 39440430 39220457 39240489 39450515 40190525 41330521 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z The potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions remains low through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to suggest mean troughing will become established along the West Coast with upper ridging over the southern and central CONUS through the work week and into next weekend. This synoptic regime will favor widespread rain/thunderstorm chances for much of the country with the exception of NV/CA and portions of central TX. ...D4/Thursday - Pacific Northwest... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Multiple runs from the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model families (and associated ensembles) have shown a consistent signal for convection across portions of OR on D4/Thursday as one such disturbances moves across the region. While the probability for convection is somewhat meager (around 40% based on blended ensemble guidance), forecast PWAT values and QPF probabilities suggest that thunderstorms that do development may be dry and pose a fire weather concern given antecedent dry fuels and recent lighting starts across this region. Low (10%) risk highlights have been introduced to address this concern. ...Great Basin... The evolving synoptic regime will favor multiple weak upper disturbances propagating across the northern Great Basin as an upper low slowly amplifies off the West Coast through the work week and into the upcoming weekend. This will support multiple days of breezy conditions across the Great Basin - primarily across NV - where conditions should remain dry (RH in the low teens to low 20s) within a persistent downslope flow regime off the Sierra Nevada. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions appear possible each day, but the synoptic regime will favor weak low-level mass responses and modest surface winds. ...Texas... Ensemble guidance continues to show a strong signal for dry conditions and afternoon high temperatures returning into the low 100s through the upcoming weekend. These hot/dry conditions will support drying most fuels, especially grasses across west to northwest TX where the hottest conditions are expected. The building upper ridge will limit the potential for widespread, strong gradient winds, but trends forecast wind speeds and fuels will be monitored. ..Moore.. 08/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more