Severe Storms

WW 0562 Status Updates
000- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E WAL TO 25 SSE NHK TO 20 NE NHK TO 15 NNW DOV TO 50 ESE NEL. WW 562 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010000Z. ..JEWELL..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-010000- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-039-045-047-010000- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-009-011-010000- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 562 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA WV CW 311715Z - 010000Z
CWZ000-010000- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Southern into Eastern Pennsylvania Northern and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon. Several clusters of thunderstorms will likely focus a risk for strong to severe wind gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely persist into the early evening before diminishing or moving east of the coast. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Allentown PA to 50 miles southwest of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1855 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...MUCH OF MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1855 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Delaware...much of Maryland and northern Virginia into the eastern West Virginia panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562... Valid 312002Z - 312200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may continue to develop and intensify across the Greater Washington D.C. into Baltimore vicinities through 5-6 PM EDT, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...The environment across much of the northern Mid Atlantic, from Greater Philadelphia into the Greater New York City area, is becoming substantially impacted by convective precipitation and outflow. In the wake of this activity, it appears that the surface front is beginning to advance across and south of the southern Pennsylvania state border, into a seasonably moist boundary-layer still supporting sizable CAPE across the eastern West Virginia panhandle through the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore area, where shear remains at least marginally conducive to organized convective development near the southern fringe of the westerlies. ..Kerr.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 40077754 40027653 40097524 39737418 38427510 37627613 37787858 39677877 40077754 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1856 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern/central Idaho and southwestern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312034Z - 312130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe winds with thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has developed across portions of southern Idaho near the Snake River Plain and Sawtooth Range. This is expected to continue to move northward this afternoon, with potential for strong to severe winds. Temperatures across southern/central Idaho are in the mid to upper 80s, with large dew point spreads around 40 degrees noted in surface observations. Surface objective analysis shows steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km. This environment will be supportive of strong downburst potential. As storms cluster and grow along outflow, a more organized damaging wind threat may emerge. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 42801676 43371704 44571702 45201660 45591572 45841492 46151359 45911278 45581222 44811178 43991201 43411227 42601297 42091321 41781435 42371644 42801676 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1853 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1853 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwestern Arkansas into northeastern Texas and northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311936Z - 312130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe wind gusts may increase with a cluster of storms spreading toward the Ark-La-Tex through 4-5 PM CDT, before activity tends to weaken to the south and southwest of the region. DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development continues a general slow south/southwestward propagation, in the presence of weakly sheared light northerly deep-layer mean flow. The most recent flareup southwest through south of Hot Springs has contributed to further strengthening of an associated cold pool, with 2-hourly surface pressure rises in excess of 2 mb noted in 19Z observations at Arkadelphia and a 28 degree F differential in temperature across the cold pool between Arkadelphia and Texarkana. Aided by low-level updraft inflow of seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content characterized by large CAPE, renewed vigorous thunderstorm development is ongoing near/just ahead of the southwestward propagating segment of the outflow across southwestern Arkansas, toward Texarkana, with an expanding area of northward spreading anvil-level precipitation in its wake. As this continues through the next hour or two, it appears possible that north-northeasterly rear inflow may strengthen/descend and pose increasing potential for strong to severe gusts across the Ark-La-Texas vicinity, before the storms encounter more stable updraft inflow and weaken. ..Kerr/Smith.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34399421 33859364 33299285 32979247 32569315 32779412 33269479 33859502 34399421 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0563 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0563 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
140- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HGR TO 15 WNW ILG TO 10 NW NEL TO 20 NE NEL TO 25 SSE JFK. ..KERR..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-312140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-312140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-312140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
140- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HGR TO 15 WNW ILG TO 10 NW NEL TO 20 NE NEL TO 25 SSE JFK. ..KERR..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-312140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-312140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-312140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL Read more

MD 1854 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado into eastern and northern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 311949Z - 312045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will increase through the afternoon and evening. Storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging wind as they move off the high terrain into the lower plains. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are building across the Front Range this afternoon with some increase in lighting production noted over the last hour. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and gradually move into the lower plains this afternoon and evening. East of the high terrain, daytime heating has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 70s to 80s amid dew points in the upper 50s. This has yielded MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming. Deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will initially support a few transient supercells capable of large hail. As cells interact and cluster along outflow, the damaging wind risk will into the afternoon. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 41220644 41550673 42670763 43090790 44400824 44970765 45030675 44350534 43640430 42580358 41950331 40640343 39920392 39260486 39210560 39420602 41220644 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more