Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
940- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CXY TO 20 WSW ABE TO 10 ENE ABE. ..KERR..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-311940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-311940- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033- 035-037-039-041-043-045-047-510-311940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL Read more

MD 1852 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA...INCLUDING DC
Mesoscale Discussion 1852 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...southeastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Delaware...central Maryland...and adjacent portions of northern Virginia...including DC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 311529Z - 311800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are in the process of developing, and likely to gradually intensify through 1-4 PM EDT, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado might also be possible, particularly across parts of east central and southeastern Pennsylvania into central New Jersey. DISCUSSION...Perhaps aided by forcing for ascent downstream of a short wave perturbation progressing through the southern periphery of larger-scale positively tilted mid-level troughing overspreading the northern Atlantic Seaboard, thunderstorms appear to be initiating along a stalled to slow moving frontal zone, and east of a weak surface low, across the northern Mid Atlantic. This is occurring as insolation within a boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high moisture content (including mid 70s F surface dew points) erodes inhibition. Lapse rates are generally modest to weak, and the boundary layer is not forecast to become deeply mixed, due to the moisture, but profiles still appear supportive of CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Beneath the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies, where flow at altitudes as low as 500 mb is around 30-40 kt, deep-layer shear is strong and supportive of supercell structures, and perhaps an organizing cluster, with potential to produce strong surface gusts aided by heavy precipitation loading and evaporative cooling in downdrafts. Thermodynamic profiles appear generally warm with limited potential for severe hail. A brief tornado might not be out of the question, but low-level hodographs, particularly south of the surface front, are likely to remain generally weak. ..Kerr/Smith.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39747713 40357698 40687612 40957453 40617390 39087505 38667600 38597718 39107734 39747713 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible throughout the High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. ...High Plains... An upper ridge centered over the Rockies will remain stationary on Friday. Several weak shortwave impulses will migrate through modest westerly flow within the upper ridge. Very steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally moist airmass will support a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization from northeast NM into western SD and vicinity. Southeasterly low-level upslope flow will support thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon. While vertical shear will remain modest, increasing winds above 500 mb and vertically veering low-level winds could be sufficient for a few supercells. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Deep boundary layer mixing and strong heating also will result in steep low-level lapse rates and isolated strong/severe wind gusts also will be possible. Higher outlook probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in greater storm coverage/organization within the broader Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area. ...Southeast... An upper trough will shift east across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday. Strengthening surface high pressure over the Great Lakes/Midwest will drive a cold front south across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place from southern NC into SC/GA. The highest concentration of thunderstorm clusters is expected ahead of the southward surging wedge front from southern NC into SC/GA. Vertical shear and lapse rates will remain weak, but 2+ inch PW values amid moderate/strong instability could result in wet microbursts. Some stronger forward propagating clusters also are possible as the cold front interacts with the cold front near the southeast NC/SC coastal plain. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more