Severe Storms

WW 0562 Status Updates
040- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CXY TO 30 NW PHL TO 10 E TTN. ..KERR..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-312040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-312040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033- 035-037-039-041-043-045-047-510-312040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central and southern High Plains vicinity on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across the Southeast. ...Central/Southern High Plains... The upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten on Saturday, while a weak shortwave trough migrates across the Four Corners and into the southern/central High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints (perhaps mid 60s over parts of western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles). Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon. Vertical shear is forecast to remain modest, but sufficient for organized cells capable of producing locally strong outflow winds and hail. With time during the evening, some forecast guidance suggests upscale growth could occur across western KS with a small cluster or MCS moving southeast into parts of northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. If this occurs, damaging wind potential may increase. If confidence in this evolution increases, higher outlook probabilities may be necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Southeast... A surface cold front will be located in the vicinity of southern AL into southern GA on Saturday. A seasonally very moist and strongly unstable airmass will exist near the boundary. While deep layer shear will be weak, the boundary could become a focus for clustering of thunderstorm activity. Given PW values greater than 2 inches, some potential will exist for wet microbursts and/or forward propagating clusters along outflows producing sporadic/locally damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Thunderstorms are possible farther west/northwest in northern California and southwest Oregon. However, storm motions appear that they will be too slow for a significant threat of ignitions. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible from southern Nevada into southwest Utah. Winds generally appear too weak (less than 15 mph) or short in duration for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more