Severe Storms

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0563 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0563 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
140- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HGR TO 15 WNW ILG TO 10 NW NEL TO 20 NE NEL TO 25 SSE JFK. ..KERR..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-312140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-312140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-312140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
140- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HGR TO 15 WNW ILG TO 10 NW NEL TO 20 NE NEL TO 25 SSE JFK. ..KERR..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-312140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-312140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-312140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL Read more

MD 1854 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado into eastern and northern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 311949Z - 312045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will increase through the afternoon and evening. Storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging wind as they move off the high terrain into the lower plains. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are building across the Front Range this afternoon with some increase in lighting production noted over the last hour. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and gradually move into the lower plains this afternoon and evening. East of the high terrain, daytime heating has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 70s to 80s amid dew points in the upper 50s. This has yielded MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming. Deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will initially support a few transient supercells capable of large hail. As cells interact and cluster along outflow, the damaging wind risk will into the afternoon. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 41220644 41550673 42670763 43090790 44400824 44970765 45030675 44350534 43640430 42580358 41950331 40640343 39920392 39260486 39210560 39420602 41220644 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more