Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains... Extensive upper ridging currently extends from the southern High Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving eastward/northeastward within this ridging. Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft associated with this ridging is maintaining steep mid-level lapse rates across the Rockies and eastward into the High Plains, where dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. This moderate low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) by late this afternoon. Previously mentioned low-amplitude shortwave troughs coupled with orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain, with these storms then expected to move into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream across the High Plains. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO, contributing to a relatively greater severe potential here versus the remainder of the High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow across the entire region. However, greater mid-level flow is anticipated from western SD into northeast CO, where a few supercells capable of large hail and potentially even a brief tornado are possible. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and brief tornadoes. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A very moist airmass remain in places from the Southeast into the Carolinas. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints through this entire region. Recent RAOBS and mesoanalysis show near 2 inch PW across GA and the Carolinas. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as a weak cold front pushes southward/southeastward into the region. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, and a locally greater risk for wind damage, but the lack of stronger vertical shear should limit overall updraft longevity and severity. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains... Extensive upper ridging currently extends from the southern High Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving eastward/northeastward within this ridging. Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft associated with this ridging is maintaining steep mid-level lapse rates across the Rockies and eastward into the High Plains, where dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. This moderate low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) by late this afternoon. Previously mentioned low-amplitude shortwave troughs coupled with orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain, with these storms then expected to move into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream across the High Plains. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO, contributing to a relatively greater severe potential here versus the remainder of the High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow across the entire region. However, greater mid-level flow is anticipated from western SD into northeast CO, where a few supercells capable of large hail and potentially even a brief tornado are possible. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and brief tornadoes. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A very moist airmass remain in places from the Southeast into the Carolinas. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints through this entire region. Recent RAOBS and mesoanalysis show near 2 inch PW across GA and the Carolinas. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as a weak cold front pushes southward/southeastward into the region. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, and a locally greater risk for wind damage, but the lack of stronger vertical shear should limit overall updraft longevity and severity. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the High Plains. ...High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will become northwesterly across much of the High Plains on Sunday, as a ridge becomes established across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a moist axis will be in place across the Great Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F. By afternoon, moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass. As surface heating takes place, isolated thunderstorm development is expected in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Near the instability axis, the models are forecasting moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat, with a few severe wind gusts and hail possible. These storms are expected to form in the afternoon, as a shortwave trough exits the region. Subsidence behind the trough should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the High Plains. ...High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will become northwesterly across much of the High Plains on Sunday, as a ridge becomes established across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a moist axis will be in place across the Great Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F. By afternoon, moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass. As surface heating takes place, isolated thunderstorm development is expected in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Near the instability axis, the models are forecasting moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat, with a few severe wind gusts and hail possible. These storms are expected to form in the afternoon, as a shortwave trough exits the region. Subsidence behind the trough should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the High Plains. ...High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will become northwesterly across much of the High Plains on Sunday, as a ridge becomes established across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a moist axis will be in place across the Great Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F. By afternoon, moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass. As surface heating takes place, isolated thunderstorm development is expected in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Near the instability axis, the models are forecasting moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat, with a few severe wind gusts and hail possible. These storms are expected to form in the afternoon, as a shortwave trough exits the region. Subsidence behind the trough should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Between a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico and a broad/slow-moving midlevel trough crossing northern CA, enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the southern Great Basin. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will yield hot, dry, and breezy conditions during the afternoon. Given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NV into southern UT. Farther north, cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Inverted-V profiles and 0.6-0.7 inch PW will favor mostly dry thunderstorms, with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Between a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico and a broad/slow-moving midlevel trough crossing northern CA, enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the southern Great Basin. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will yield hot, dry, and breezy conditions during the afternoon. Given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NV into southern UT. Farther north, cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Inverted-V profiles and 0.6-0.7 inch PW will favor mostly dry thunderstorms, with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Between a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico and a broad/slow-moving midlevel trough crossing northern CA, enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the southern Great Basin. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will yield hot, dry, and breezy conditions during the afternoon. Given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NV into southern UT. Farther north, cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Inverted-V profiles and 0.6-0.7 inch PW will favor mostly dry thunderstorms, with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...High Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central Rockies on Saturday. Ahead of the ridge, mid-level flow will be northwesterly across much of the High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Great Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass by afternoon. As surface heating takes place during the day, scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain of the central Rockies, and spread eastward into the central High Plains. A cluster or line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Model consensus on Saturday suggests that the strongest instability will develop from eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwest Nebraska, with MLCAPE likely to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings near Goodland, Kansas in the early evening have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. From the surface to 700 mb, the temperature profile is nearly dry adiabatic, and surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are around 30 degrees F. This environment should produce high cloud bases, with a potential for isolated damaging gusts. Supercells and/or short multicell line segments will be possible, and isolated large hail will be possible with rotating cells. ...Southeast... A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf Coast states on Saturday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be the lower to mid 70s F across southern Alabama, southern Georgia and Florida. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized across this same area. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z across southern Georgia have inverted-V profiles with very steep lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb. This could be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger multicells during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...High Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central Rockies on Saturday. Ahead of the ridge, mid-level flow will be northwesterly across much of the High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Great Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass by afternoon. As surface heating takes place during the day, scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain of the central Rockies, and spread eastward into the central High Plains. A cluster or line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Model consensus on Saturday suggests that the strongest instability will develop from eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwest Nebraska, with MLCAPE likely to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings near Goodland, Kansas in the early evening have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. From the surface to 700 mb, the temperature profile is nearly dry adiabatic, and surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are around 30 degrees F. This environment should produce high cloud bases, with a potential for isolated damaging gusts. Supercells and/or short multicell line segments will be possible, and isolated large hail will be possible with rotating cells. ...Southeast... A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf Coast states on Saturday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be the lower to mid 70s F across southern Alabama, southern Georgia and Florida. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized across this same area. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z across southern Georgia have inverted-V profiles with very steep lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb. This could be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger multicells during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the High Plains on Saturday. Additional strong storms are possible across parts of the Southeast. ...High Plains... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central Rockies on Saturday. Ahead of the ridge, mid-level flow will be northwesterly across much of the High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Great Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass by afternoon. As surface heating takes place during the day, scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain of the central Rockies, and spread eastward into the central High Plains. A cluster or line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Model consensus on Saturday suggests that the strongest instability will develop from eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwest Nebraska, with MLCAPE likely to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. NAM forecast soundings near Goodland, Kansas in the early evening have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. From the surface to 700 mb, the temperature profile is nearly dry adiabatic, and surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are around 30 degrees F. This environment should produce high cloud bases, with a potential for isolated damaging gusts. Supercells and/or short multicell line segments will be possible, and isolated large hail will be possible with rotating cells. ...Southeast... A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf Coast states on Saturday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to be the lower to mid 70s F across southern Alabama, southern Georgia and Florida. Low-level convergence is forecast to be maximized across this same area. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z across southern Georgia have inverted-V profiles with very steep lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb. This could be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger multicells during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains vicinity... Thunderstorms are again expected to develop across the central/northern High Plains and vicinity this afternoon and evening. Low-level east-southeasterly flow will continue to transport moisture into the region beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, with moderate destabilization expected across a broad region, and locally stronger buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg) expected from western SD into the NE Panhandle and northeast CO. Midlevel flow will remain relatively modest, but backed low-level flow beneath westerlies aloft will result in effective shear of 30-40 kt. Initial storm development may be focused near the higher terrain, and also potentially in the vicinity of an MCV that is forecast to move slowly across northwest SD. A few supercells will be possible initially, with a threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some clustering will be possible with time, which may result in a somewhat greater coverage of strong to severe gusts as convection spreads east-southeastward into the evening. A Slight Risk has been added from western SD into northeast CO, where confidence is currently greatest in a sufficient coverage of severe storms. Some severe threat will extend into the southern High Plains, though generally weaker deep-layer shear and somewhat greater influence of the upper ridge may result in more isolated coverage with southward extent. Isolated severe hail and wind will also be possible into parts of MT, where deep-layer shear will relatively weak, but moderate instability will support a few strong storms in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the northern Rockies. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over parts of the eastern CONUS today. A seasonably strong surface ridge will drive a cold front southward across the Mid Atlantic and eventually into the Carolinas. Guidance generally suggests that a prefrontal wind shift will move southward ahead of the primary front. Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but large PW (greater than 2 inches) will support moderate buoyancy and potential for localized wet microbursts. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, though potential for more concentrated areas of wind damage will depend on mesoscale factors such as position of the prefrontal wind shift and details regarding the timing and placement of initial storm development. Greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in a more focused corridor of wind-damage potential. ...Northeast TX vicinity... Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and evening from central TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some 00Z CAM guidance suggests a local maximum in storm coverage in the vicinity of northeast TX, associated with an MCV. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be quite weak, but some severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of this area, if trends support any notable MCV-related enhancement to the flow and potential for more organized convection later today. ..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains vicinity... Thunderstorms are again expected to develop across the central/northern High Plains and vicinity this afternoon and evening. Low-level east-southeasterly flow will continue to transport moisture into the region beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, with moderate destabilization expected across a broad region, and locally stronger buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg) expected from western SD into the NE Panhandle and northeast CO. Midlevel flow will remain relatively modest, but backed low-level flow beneath westerlies aloft will result in effective shear of 30-40 kt. Initial storm development may be focused near the higher terrain, and also potentially in the vicinity of an MCV that is forecast to move slowly across northwest SD. A few supercells will be possible initially, with a threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some clustering will be possible with time, which may result in a somewhat greater coverage of strong to severe gusts as convection spreads east-southeastward into the evening. A Slight Risk has been added from western SD into northeast CO, where confidence is currently greatest in a sufficient coverage of severe storms. Some severe threat will extend into the southern High Plains, though generally weaker deep-layer shear and somewhat greater influence of the upper ridge may result in more isolated coverage with southward extent. Isolated severe hail and wind will also be possible into parts of MT, where deep-layer shear will relatively weak, but moderate instability will support a few strong storms in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the northern Rockies. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over parts of the eastern CONUS today. A seasonably strong surface ridge will drive a cold front southward across the Mid Atlantic and eventually into the Carolinas. Guidance generally suggests that a prefrontal wind shift will move southward ahead of the primary front. Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but large PW (greater than 2 inches) will support moderate buoyancy and potential for localized wet microbursts. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, though potential for more concentrated areas of wind damage will depend on mesoscale factors such as position of the prefrontal wind shift and details regarding the timing and placement of initial storm development. Greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in a more focused corridor of wind-damage potential. ...Northeast TX vicinity... Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and evening from central TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some 00Z CAM guidance suggests a local maximum in storm coverage in the vicinity of northeast TX, associated with an MCV. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be quite weak, but some severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of this area, if trends support any notable MCV-related enhancement to the flow and potential for more organized convection later today. ..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains vicinity... Thunderstorms are again expected to develop across the central/northern High Plains and vicinity this afternoon and evening. Low-level east-southeasterly flow will continue to transport moisture into the region beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, with moderate destabilization expected across a broad region, and locally stronger buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg) expected from western SD into the NE Panhandle and northeast CO. Midlevel flow will remain relatively modest, but backed low-level flow beneath westerlies aloft will result in effective shear of 30-40 kt. Initial storm development may be focused near the higher terrain, and also potentially in the vicinity of an MCV that is forecast to move slowly across northwest SD. A few supercells will be possible initially, with a threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some clustering will be possible with time, which may result in a somewhat greater coverage of strong to severe gusts as convection spreads east-southeastward into the evening. A Slight Risk has been added from western SD into northeast CO, where confidence is currently greatest in a sufficient coverage of severe storms. Some severe threat will extend into the southern High Plains, though generally weaker deep-layer shear and somewhat greater influence of the upper ridge may result in more isolated coverage with southward extent. Isolated severe hail and wind will also be possible into parts of MT, where deep-layer shear will relatively weak, but moderate instability will support a few strong storms in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the northern Rockies. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A broad mid/upper-level trough will persist over parts of the eastern CONUS today. A seasonably strong surface ridge will drive a cold front southward across the Mid Atlantic and eventually into the Carolinas. Guidance generally suggests that a prefrontal wind shift will move southward ahead of the primary front. Deep-layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but large PW (greater than 2 inches) will support moderate buoyancy and potential for localized wet microbursts. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, though potential for more concentrated areas of wind damage will depend on mesoscale factors such as position of the prefrontal wind shift and details regarding the timing and placement of initial storm development. Greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in a more focused corridor of wind-damage potential. ...Northeast TX vicinity... Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon and evening from central TX into the ArkLaTex region. Some 00Z CAM guidance suggests a local maximum in storm coverage in the vicinity of northeast TX, associated with an MCV. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be quite weak, but some severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of this area, if trends support any notable MCV-related enhancement to the flow and potential for more organized convection later today. ..Dean/Weinman.. 08/01/2025 Read more

MD 1859 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1859 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central/northern Wyoming into far southeastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 010109Z - 010315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage over the next few hours. Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail may accompany the stronger storms. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms are developing within a plume of steep deep-layer lapse rates in central WY (per RIW 00Z sounding), with additional convective development evident along differential heating zones/outflow boundaries and over the higher terrain in northern WY. This uptick in convection may be aided by a subtle/embedded midlevel impulse moving into the area. Over the next few hours, these storms will continue tracking/developing northeastward into an environment characterized by weak-moderate surface-based buoyancy and around 30-40 kt of effective shear. This should promote a few loosely organized cells and clusters, capable of producing severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Current indications are that the severe risk will remain too brief/isolated for a watch, though convective trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 44290496 43810521 43250579 43000709 43240809 43780852 44250846 45160786 45540704 45590627 45310544 44930502 44290496 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E DEN TO 35 S BFF TO 50 ENE DGW. ..WEINMAN..08/01/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC087-010240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORGAN NEC007-105-157-010240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER KIMBALL SCOTTS BLUFF THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 563 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 312100Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Colorado Western Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify while moving east from the higher terrain and into the adjacent plains. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of a threat for scattered severe gusts (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter). Upscale growth into a linear cluster may occur this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Torrington WY to 30 miles east southeast of Fort Collins CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 562... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more