Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST WY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms remain possible through this evening across parts of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern/central High Plains... A cluster of strong to occasionally severe storms is ongoing across the central High Plains. Storms from the NE Panhandle into northeast CO should eventually weaken later tonight, as CINH increases with time and eastward extent, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts may continue through the evening. Some increase in storm coverage and intensity remains possible from north-central into northeast WY, as ongoing high-based convection moves into an increasingly unstable environment, with very favorable lapse rates noted on the 00Z RIW sounding. Some threat for hail and severe wind could accompany the strongest storms this evening, though longevity of the threat could be limited by increasing CINH. ...Southeast VA and vicinity... A couple strong storms remain possible across southeast VA this evening, within a moist and moderately buoyant environment. Localized wind damage cannot be ruled out before storms weaken or move offshore later tonight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST WY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms remain possible through this evening across parts of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northern/central High Plains... A cluster of strong to occasionally severe storms is ongoing across the central High Plains. Storms from the NE Panhandle into northeast CO should eventually weaken later tonight, as CINH increases with time and eastward extent, but some threat for hail and strong to severe gusts may continue through the evening. Some increase in storm coverage and intensity remains possible from north-central into northeast WY, as ongoing high-based convection moves into an increasingly unstable environment, with very favorable lapse rates noted on the 00Z RIW sounding. Some threat for hail and severe wind could accompany the strongest storms this evening, though longevity of the threat could be limited by increasing CINH. ...Southeast VA and vicinity... A couple strong storms remain possible across southeast VA this evening, within a moist and moderately buoyant environment. Localized wind damage cannot be ruled out before storms weaken or move offshore later tonight. ..Dean.. 08/01/2025 Read more

MD 1857 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1857 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east-central and southeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312252Z - 010115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm risk will increase over the next few hours. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms are evolving along the higher terrain west of the I-25 corridor in central/southern CO. Cool temperatures aloft and an elongated hodograph (around 35 kt of 0-6 km shear per PUX VWP) will support isolated large hail with this activity. Regional/upstream VWP data indicates modest strengthening of west-southwesterly midlevel winds overspreading the area, which will allow storms to gradually advance eastward into the CO Plains tonight. Moist/east-southeasterly upslope flow beneath the strengthening midlevel westerlies will yield an elongated/straight hodograph amid sufficient surface-based buoyancy -- supportive of loosely organized storm clusters. Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with any clusters that evolve, though generally weak large-scale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on the coverage of storms. A watch is not currently expected, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37400513 38620523 39320506 39930467 39970378 39610334 39060316 37980310 37420338 37110396 37120466 37400513 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1858 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563... FOR SOUTHEAST WY...NORTHEASTERN CO...AND THE NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1858 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...Southeast WY...northeastern CO...and the NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563... Valid 312332Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will continue expanding eastward over the next several hours. A downstream watch is not currently expected, though local spatial extensions of the watch may be warranted. DISCUSSION...Loosely organized storm clusters are tracking eastward across southeastern WY and northeastern CO this evening, which will continue posing a risk of severe wind gusts. These storms are evolving along a larger-scale cold pool which is spreading/expanding eastward into a moderately unstable air mass. Recent radar data indicates new updrafts developing along the leading outflow boundary, and around 40 kt of gust-front-orthogonal effective shear may be supporting the development of a loosely organized MCS with eastward extent. The risk of scattered severe wind gusts (60-70 mph) is the primary concern, prior to increasing nocturnal static stability/inhibition tonight. A downstream watch is not currently expected, though local spatial extensions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563 may be warranted. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 40150456 41740457 42140493 42600610 42870609 43140569 43200458 43020361 42610295 41180268 40240304 40010371 40150456 Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DEN TO 25 SSW TOR TO 15 W TOR TO 15 WNW DGW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1858 ..WEINMAN..08/01/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC087-123-010140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORGAN WELD NEC007-105-157-010140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER KIMBALL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-031-010140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN PLATTE Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
000- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E WAL TO 25 SSE NHK TO 20 NE NHK TO 15 NNW DOV TO 50 ESE NEL. WW 562 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010000Z. ..JEWELL..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-010000- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-039-045-047-010000- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-009-011-010000- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
000- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E WAL TO 25 SSE NHK TO 20 NE NHK TO 15 NNW DOV TO 50 ESE NEL. WW 562 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010000Z. ..JEWELL..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-010000- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-039-045-047-010000- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-009-011-010000- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 562 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA WV CW 311715Z - 010000Z
CWZ000-010000- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Southern into Eastern Pennsylvania Northern and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon. Several clusters of thunderstorms will likely focus a risk for strong to severe wind gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely persist into the early evening before diminishing or moving east of the coast. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Allentown PA to 50 miles southwest of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1858 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563... FOR SOUTHEAST WY...NORTHEASTERN CO...AND THE NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1858 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...Southeast WY...northeastern CO...and the NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563... Valid 312332Z - 010100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will continue expanding eastward over the next several hours. A downstream watch is not currently expected, though local spatial extensions of the watch may be warranted. DISCUSSION...Loosely organized storm clusters are tracking eastward across southeastern WY and northeastern CO this evening, which will continue posing a risk of severe wind gusts. These storms are evolving along a larger-scale cold pool which is spreading/expanding eastward into a moderately unstable air mass. Recent radar data indicates new updrafts developing along the leading outflow boundary, and around 40 kt of gust-front-orthogonal effective shear may be supporting the development of a loosely organized MCS with eastward extent. The risk of scattered severe wind gusts (60-70 mph) is the primary concern, prior to increasing nocturnal static stability/inhibition tonight. A downstream watch is not currently expected, though local spatial extensions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 563 may be warranted. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 40150456 41740457 42140493 42600610 42870609 43140569 43200458 43020361 42610295 41180268 40240304 40010371 40150456 Read more

MD 1857 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1857 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...Parts of east-central and southeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312252Z - 010115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm risk will increase over the next few hours. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. A watch is not currently expected, though trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms are evolving along the higher terrain west of the I-25 corridor in central/southern CO. Cool temperatures aloft and an elongated hodograph (around 35 kt of 0-6 km shear per PUX VWP) will support isolated large hail with this activity. Regional/upstream VWP data indicates modest strengthening of west-southwesterly midlevel winds overspreading the area, which will allow storms to gradually advance eastward into the CO Plains tonight. Moist/east-southeasterly upslope flow beneath the strengthening midlevel westerlies will yield an elongated/straight hodograph amid sufficient surface-based buoyancy -- supportive of loosely organized storm clusters. Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with any clusters that evolve, though generally weak large-scale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on the coverage of storms. A watch is not currently expected, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37400513 38620523 39320506 39930467 39970378 39610334 39060316 37980310 37420338 37110396 37120466 37400513 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DEN TO 10 E CYS TO 35 SW TOR TO 15 WNW DGW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1858 ..WEINMAN..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 563 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC087-123-010040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MORGAN WELD NEC007-105-157-010040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER KIMBALL SCOTTS BLUFF WYC015-031-010040- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOSHEN PLATTE Read more

WW 563 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 312100Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Colorado Western Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify while moving east from the higher terrain and into the adjacent plains. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of a threat for scattered severe gusts (60-70 mph) and isolated large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter). Upscale growth into a linear cluster may occur this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Torrington WY to 30 miles east southeast of Fort Collins CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 562... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 31 22:40:17 UTC 2025.

WW 0562 Status Updates
000- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E WAL TO 25 SSE NHK TO 20 NE NHK TO 15 NNW DOV TO 50 ESE NEL. WW 562 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010000Z. ..JEWELL..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-010000- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-039-045-047-010000- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-009-011-010000- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0562 Status Updates
000- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E WAL TO 25 SSE NHK TO 20 NE NHK TO 15 NNW DOV TO 50 ESE NEL. WW 562 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 010000Z. ..JEWELL..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-010000- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-039-045-047-010000- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-009-011-010000- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 562 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA WV CW 311715Z - 010000Z
CWZ000-010000- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 562 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Southern into Eastern Pennsylvania Northern and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon. Several clusters of thunderstorms will likely focus a risk for strong to severe wind gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely persist into the early evening before diminishing or moving east of the coast. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles east northeast of Allentown PA to 50 miles southwest of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1855 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 562... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...MUCH OF MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1855 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Delaware...much of Maryland and northern Virginia into the eastern West Virginia panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562... Valid 312002Z - 312200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 562 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may continue to develop and intensify across the Greater Washington D.C. into Baltimore vicinities through 5-6 PM EDT, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...The environment across much of the northern Mid Atlantic, from Greater Philadelphia into the Greater New York City area, is becoming substantially impacted by convective precipitation and outflow. In the wake of this activity, it appears that the surface front is beginning to advance across and south of the southern Pennsylvania state border, into a seasonably moist boundary-layer still supporting sizable CAPE across the eastern West Virginia panhandle through the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore area, where shear remains at least marginally conducive to organized convective development near the southern fringe of the westerlies. ..Kerr.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 40077754 40027653 40097524 39737418 38427510 37627613 37787858 39677877 40077754 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1856 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1856 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern/central Idaho and southwestern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312034Z - 312130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe winds with thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has developed across portions of southern Idaho near the Snake River Plain and Sawtooth Range. This is expected to continue to move northward this afternoon, with potential for strong to severe winds. Temperatures across southern/central Idaho are in the mid to upper 80s, with large dew point spreads around 40 degrees noted in surface observations. Surface objective analysis shows steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 8.5-9 C/km. This environment will be supportive of strong downburst potential. As storms cluster and grow along outflow, a more organized damaging wind threat may emerge. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 42801676 43371704 44571702 45201660 45591572 45841492 46151359 45911278 45581222 44811178 43991201 43411227 42601297 42091321 41781435 42371644 42801676 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1853 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1853 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwestern Arkansas into northeastern Texas and northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311936Z - 312130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe wind gusts may increase with a cluster of storms spreading toward the Ark-La-Tex through 4-5 PM CDT, before activity tends to weaken to the south and southwest of the region. DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development continues a general slow south/southwestward propagation, in the presence of weakly sheared light northerly deep-layer mean flow. The most recent flareup southwest through south of Hot Springs has contributed to further strengthening of an associated cold pool, with 2-hourly surface pressure rises in excess of 2 mb noted in 19Z observations at Arkadelphia and a 28 degree F differential in temperature across the cold pool between Arkadelphia and Texarkana. Aided by low-level updraft inflow of seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content characterized by large CAPE, renewed vigorous thunderstorm development is ongoing near/just ahead of the southwestward propagating segment of the outflow across southwestern Arkansas, toward Texarkana, with an expanding area of northward spreading anvil-level precipitation in its wake. As this continues through the next hour or two, it appears possible that north-northeasterly rear inflow may strengthen/descend and pose increasing potential for strong to severe gusts across the Ark-La-Texas vicinity, before the storms encounter more stable updraft inflow and weaken. ..Kerr/Smith.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34399421 33859364 33299285 32979247 32569315 32779412 33269479 33859502 34399421 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0563 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0563 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more