Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. ..Smith/Moore.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. ..Smith/Moore.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. ..Smith/Moore.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. ..Smith/Moore.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. ..Smith/Moore.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. ..Smith/Moore.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible. ...High Plains... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a few disturbances undercutting an upper ridge currently over the High Plains/Alberta. An MCV is slowly moving eastward near the MT/WY/SD/ND border, a more pronounced upper trough will remain over the northern Rockies and adjacent high plains of MT, and a more subtle disturbance will move east-northeastward across the central Rockies. A residual frontal zone draped generally south-north abutting the higher terrain is providing a focus for richer moisture east of this boundary over the High Plains. Surface dewpoints will likely range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across much of the Slight Risk. A belt of slightly stronger westerly upper flow is forecast across the central High Plains which will act to elongate hodographs. Additionally, a plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5 to 9 deg C/km) will contribute to MLCAPE 2000-3000 by mid-late afternoon. The aforementioned low-amplitude disturbance over the central Rockies coupled with low-level upslope flow/orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain and the Cheyenne Ridge. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO/WY/NE Panhandle border region. Model ensemble data suggest a few favored corridors for severe may result. The most notable area may focus near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent northeast CO where supercell potential appears greatest. Large to very large hail and a tornado or two are possible with this activity before gradually transitioning to primarily a risk for severe gusts. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two. ...Carolinas into Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi... A seasonably moist airmass was sampled by 12 UTC area raobs this morning (near 16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio). Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive low cloud cover across central and eastern NC near and behind the wind shift/cold front. Farther west, initial cumulus field development is noted over the southern Appalachians where strong heating is occurring and farther south/southeast over the Piedmont and to the coastal plain. As temperatures continue to warm through early afternoon, erosion of convective inhibition will result in scattered storms favoring the higher terrain and eventually near the wind shift. High PW (2 inches or greater) and diurnally steepened surface to 1.5 km lapse rates will support a risk for wet microbursts with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Localized gusts 50-65 mph are possible and scattered pockets of wind damage may result. ..Smith/Moore.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains... Extensive upper ridging currently extends from the southern High Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving eastward/northeastward within this ridging. Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft associated with this ridging is maintaining steep mid-level lapse rates across the Rockies and eastward into the High Plains, where dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. This moderate low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) by late this afternoon. Previously mentioned low-amplitude shortwave troughs coupled with orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain, with these storms then expected to move into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream across the High Plains. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO, contributing to a relatively greater severe potential here versus the remainder of the High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow across the entire region. However, greater mid-level flow is anticipated from western SD into northeast CO, where a few supercells capable of large hail and potentially even a brief tornado are possible. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and brief tornadoes. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A very moist airmass remain in places from the Southeast into the Carolinas. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints through this entire region. Recent RAOBS and mesoanalysis show near 2 inch PW across GA and the Carolinas. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as a weak cold front pushes southward/southeastward into the region. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, and a locally greater risk for wind damage, but the lack of stronger vertical shear should limit overall updraft longevity and severity. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains... Extensive upper ridging currently extends from the southern High Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving eastward/northeastward within this ridging. Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft associated with this ridging is maintaining steep mid-level lapse rates across the Rockies and eastward into the High Plains, where dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. This moderate low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) by late this afternoon. Previously mentioned low-amplitude shortwave troughs coupled with orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain, with these storms then expected to move into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream across the High Plains. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO, contributing to a relatively greater severe potential here versus the remainder of the High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow across the entire region. However, greater mid-level flow is anticipated from western SD into northeast CO, where a few supercells capable of large hail and potentially even a brief tornado are possible. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and brief tornadoes. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A very moist airmass remain in places from the Southeast into the Carolinas. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints through this entire region. Recent RAOBS and mesoanalysis show near 2 inch PW across GA and the Carolinas. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as a weak cold front pushes southward/southeastward into the region. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, and a locally greater risk for wind damage, but the lack of stronger vertical shear should limit overall updraft longevity and severity. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains... Extensive upper ridging currently extends from the southern High Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving eastward/northeastward within this ridging. Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft associated with this ridging is maintaining steep mid-level lapse rates across the Rockies and eastward into the High Plains, where dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. This moderate low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) by late this afternoon. Previously mentioned low-amplitude shortwave troughs coupled with orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain, with these storms then expected to move into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream across the High Plains. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO, contributing to a relatively greater severe potential here versus the remainder of the High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow across the entire region. However, greater mid-level flow is anticipated from western SD into northeast CO, where a few supercells capable of large hail and potentially even a brief tornado are possible. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and brief tornadoes. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A very moist airmass remain in places from the Southeast into the Carolinas. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints through this entire region. Recent RAOBS and mesoanalysis show near 2 inch PW across GA and the Carolinas. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as a weak cold front pushes southward/southeastward into the region. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, and a locally greater risk for wind damage, but the lack of stronger vertical shear should limit overall updraft longevity and severity. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST CO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Storms capable of at least isolated wind damage will be possible across South Carolina and surrounding parts of North Carolina and Georgia. ...High Plains... Extensive upper ridging currently extends from the southern High Plains into Alberta/Saskatchewan, with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving eastward/northeastward within this ridging. Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft associated with this ridging is maintaining steep mid-level lapse rates across the Rockies and eastward into the High Plains, where dewpoints will likely be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. This moderate low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) by late this afternoon. Previously mentioned low-amplitude shortwave troughs coupled with orographic effects will result in initial thunderstorm development over the high terrain, with these storms then expected to move into the more moist and buoyant airmass downstream across the High Plains. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected from western SD into northeast CO, contributing to a relatively greater severe potential here versus the remainder of the High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow across the entire region. However, greater mid-level flow is anticipated from western SD into northeast CO, where a few supercells capable of large hail and potentially even a brief tornado are possible. One other area of interest is across northwest SD, where an MCV moving slowly into the region could result in a focused area of thunderstorms. Increased low-level convergence and low-level vertical shear near this MCV could lead to a greater threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and brief tornadoes. ...Carolinas into Georgia... A very moist airmass remain in places from the Southeast into the Carolinas. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints through this entire region. Recent RAOBS and mesoanalysis show near 2 inch PW across GA and the Carolinas. Numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as a weak cold front pushes southward/southeastward into the region. Outflow amalgamation may result in some storm clustering, and a locally greater risk for wind damage, but the lack of stronger vertical shear should limit overall updraft longevity and severity. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the High Plains. ...High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will become northwesterly across much of the High Plains on Sunday, as a ridge becomes established across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a moist axis will be in place across the Great Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F. By afternoon, moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass. As surface heating takes place, isolated thunderstorm development is expected in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Near the instability axis, the models are forecasting moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat, with a few severe wind gusts and hail possible. These storms are expected to form in the afternoon, as a shortwave trough exits the region. Subsidence behind the trough should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the High Plains. ...High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will become northwesterly across much of the High Plains on Sunday, as a ridge becomes established across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a moist axis will be in place across the Great Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F. By afternoon, moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass. As surface heating takes place, isolated thunderstorm development is expected in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Near the instability axis, the models are forecasting moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat, with a few severe wind gusts and hail possible. These storms are expected to form in the afternoon, as a shortwave trough exits the region. Subsidence behind the trough should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible on Sunday across parts of the High Plains. ...High Plains... At mid-levels, flow will become northwesterly across much of the High Plains on Sunday, as a ridge becomes established across the Intermountain West. At the surface, a moist axis will be in place across the Great Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 60s F. By afternoon, moderate instability is expected to develop along the western edge of this moist airmass. As surface heating takes place, isolated thunderstorm development is expected in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized. Near the instability axis, the models are forecasting moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This should be enough for an isolated severe threat, with a few severe wind gusts and hail possible. These storms are expected to form in the afternoon, as a shortwave trough exits the region. Subsidence behind the trough should keep any severe threat localized. ..Broyles.. 08/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will deamplify as it moves slowly eastward across the northern Great Basin during the day. Large-scale forcing for ascent and steep low/midlevel lapse rates preceding this feature will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Around 0.5-0.7 inch PW and modest storm motions will support mostly dry thunderstorms, posing a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. Between the shortwave trough and a large-scale ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico, moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin into the central Rockies. Single-digit to lower teens RH and breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of northern AZ, much of southern/central UT, and far western CO during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Between a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico and a broad/slow-moving midlevel trough crossing northern CA, enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the southern Great Basin. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will yield hot, dry, and breezy conditions during the afternoon. Given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NV into southern UT. Farther north, cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Inverted-V profiles and 0.6-0.7 inch PW will favor mostly dry thunderstorms, with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Between a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico and a broad/slow-moving midlevel trough crossing northern CA, enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the southern Great Basin. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will yield hot, dry, and breezy conditions during the afternoon. Given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NV into southern UT. Farther north, cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Inverted-V profiles and 0.6-0.7 inch PW will favor mostly dry thunderstorms, with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Fri Aug 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Between a large-scale ridge centered on the Southwest/northern Mexico and a broad/slow-moving midlevel trough crossing northern CA, enhanced west-southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the southern Great Basin. Deep boundary-layer mixing into this enhanced flow aloft will yield hot, dry, and breezy conditions during the afternoon. Given receptive fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across southern NV into southern UT. Farther north, cool temperatures aloft/steep midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough will promote another day of isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Inverted-V profiles and 0.6-0.7 inch PW will favor mostly dry thunderstorms, with a risk of lightning-induced ignitions over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 08/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more