Severe Storms

WW 0562 Status Updates
140- STATUS REPORT ON WW 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE HGR TO 15 WNW ILG TO 10 NW NEL TO 20 NE NEL TO 25 SSE JFK. ..KERR..07/31/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 562 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-312140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-312140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-043-045-047-510-312140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL Read more

MD 1854 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1854 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado into eastern and northern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 311949Z - 312045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will increase through the afternoon and evening. Storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging wind as they move off the high terrain into the lower plains. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are building across the Front Range this afternoon with some increase in lighting production noted over the last hour. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and gradually move into the lower plains this afternoon and evening. East of the high terrain, daytime heating has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 70s to 80s amid dew points in the upper 50s. This has yielded MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming. Deep layer shear around 30-35 kts will initially support a few transient supercells capable of large hail. As cells interact and cluster along outflow, the damaging wind risk will into the afternoon. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 41220644 41550673 42670763 43090790 44400824 44970765 45030675 44350534 43640430 42580358 41950331 40640343 39920392 39260486 39210560 39420602 41220644 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z ...Great Basin... Dry and windy conditions are generally expected each day through mid/late next week. Deterministic/ensemble guidance shows greater divergence toward the end of next week, but these conditions could potentially linger even into next weekend. The main point of uncertainty is the evolution of the upper trough in the West. Cyclonic flow in the Northwest is the expected pattern, but how far south/southeast the belt of stronger mid-level winds reaches is not clear. Critical fire weather probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent outlooks, but inter-model and run-to-run consistency are too low at this point to confidently highlight a 70% area. ...Northwest... Potential for thunderstorms will likely persist in the Northwest through the weekend. This will primarily affect parts of Oregon. With repeated days of convection plus the previous precipitation that has fallen, concern for large fires should be trending downward. Furthermore, storm motions will be slow until perhaps Sunday where an approaching trough will move storms more quickly northeastward. Overall, the threat for ignition of large fires is too marginal for dry thunderstorm highlights. Another model trend worth watching will be the track/timing of a forecast trough mid/late next week. Winds would strengthen, but RH broadly falling to critical levels is uncertain given the signal for clouds/cooler temperatures. Some increase in fire activity from recent lightning could occur if drier conditions were to occur. ..Wendt.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon and early evening across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...20z Update... The forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent convective trends. Low-end/5% risk probabilities were expanded slightly across portions of the northern Rockies where recent observed dewpoint depressions and short-range forecast soundings show low-level thermodynamic environments favorable for strong/severe downburst winds and GOES imagery shows deepening convection. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1853 and #1854 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025/ ...Mid Atlantic Region... Midday visible-satellite imagery indicates a moist airmass via a swelling cumulus field from the upper OH Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states and Long Island. Additional heating of an extremely moist boundary layer (12 UTC raobs at IAD and WAL showing 17-18 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios), will result in temperatures warming through the 80s deg F with 74-78 dewpoints to the east of the Fall Line. An upstream mid-level shortwave trough over WI/IL will continue to progress eastward towards the region and promote the gradual southward movement of a weak cold front. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned warming/destabilization through mid afternoon will promote scattered thunderstorms along/ahead of the front. Forecast hodographs will be elongated due to 50-70 kt upper-level flow, which will support storm organization in the form of multicell clusters and possibly a few weak supercell structures. Weak low-level flow and a deep/moisture-rich profile will facilitate water-loaded downdrafts with the stronger cores. Widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary severe concern before much of this activity moves east of the coast by mid evening. ...High Plains... No change from the previous forecast thinking. Weak shortwave ridging will reside across the central Rockies/plains northward into the northern High Plains. Surface observations and satellite data depict a seasonably moist airmass abutted to the Front Range and northward into the eastern WY. Heating over the higher terrain and along a residual frontal zone will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. Upscale growth into a linear cluster or two may evolve (supported by recent HREF guidance), and this appears most probable near the WY/CO/NE border during the early evening. A gradual transition from primarily a hail risk to a threat favoring severe gusts may occur as outflow becomes more pervasive as storm coverage and outflow increases during the evening. ...ID/Western MT... A mid-level trough over northern NV will move slowly northward through tonight into the northern Rockies. Forcing for ascent attendant to this upper feature coupled with orographic circulations will likely result in scattered storms developing by mid to late afternoon. Very steep lapse rates and dry sub-cloud layers will promote evaporative cooling and an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ...AR/LA... Scattered diurnally driven storms will likely evolve in the vicinity of a weakness in the southern U.S. mid-level anticyclone. A very moist boundary layer amid moderate buoyancy may result in a few stronger water-loaded microbursts capable of 50-65 mph gusts and pockets of wind damage. Read more