Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...High Plains... A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US, with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. ...Mid Atlantic Region... A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern. ...ID/Western MT... A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...High Plains... A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US, with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. ...Mid Atlantic Region... A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern. ...ID/Western MT... A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...High Plains... A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US, with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. ...Mid Atlantic Region... A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern. ...ID/Western MT... A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING...AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible this afternoon across the Mid-Atlantic region. Other severe wind and hail producing storms are also possible across the central/northern High Plains. ...High Plains... A broad upper ridge remains in place across most of the southern US, with a weak trough over the western states. A plume of monsoonal moisture extends from NM into CO/WY/MT, leading to another round of afternoon thunderstorms across the Rockies. The strongest cells will pose some risk of hail and gusty winds over the higher terrain before spreading onto the plains by late afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region show moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear for transient supercell structures. This may be sufficient for widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. ...Mid Atlantic Region... A weak cold front continues to sag southward across parts of PA and far southern New England this morning. Strong heating to the south of the boundary, coupled with a very moist air mass will lead to moderate afternoon MLCAPE values - despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front by mid-afternoon. A few severe storms are possible, with locally damaging wind gusts being the main concern. ...ID/Western MT... A shortwave trough is noted in morning water vapor imagery over NV lifting northward. Large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the trough will foster scattered high-based thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of ID and western MT. The strongest cells will be capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/31/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended range will primarily feature the potential for Northwest flow severe across the Plains. Moderate to strong instability is expected to build across the central Plains and into parts of the northern Plains. A mid-level trough off the California coast at the beginning of the period is forecast to move northward and eventually into southern Canada. Beyond this time, the forecast uncertainty increases. Both the ECMWF and GFS suggest some troughing will advance toward the Midwest/Great Lakes, but the amplitude varies. This will have significant impact on the potential locations of severe weather and the potential for the threat to extend east of the Plains/Upper Midwest. Regardless of the exact solution of the extended range pattern, moderate mid-level flow will likely overspread much of the northern Plains and potentially portions of the central Plains. Where this mid-level flow interacts with the developing instability and thunderstorms, some severe weather is possible. However, the uncertain timing and evolution of the pattern makes identification of these corridors challenging and precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended range will primarily feature the potential for Northwest flow severe across the Plains. Moderate to strong instability is expected to build across the central Plains and into parts of the northern Plains. A mid-level trough off the California coast at the beginning of the period is forecast to move northward and eventually into southern Canada. Beyond this time, the forecast uncertainty increases. Both the ECMWF and GFS suggest some troughing will advance toward the Midwest/Great Lakes, but the amplitude varies. This will have significant impact on the potential locations of severe weather and the potential for the threat to extend east of the Plains/Upper Midwest. Regardless of the exact solution of the extended range pattern, moderate mid-level flow will likely overspread much of the northern Plains and potentially portions of the central Plains. Where this mid-level flow interacts with the developing instability and thunderstorms, some severe weather is possible. However, the uncertain timing and evolution of the pattern makes identification of these corridors challenging and precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended range will primarily feature the potential for Northwest flow severe across the Plains. Moderate to strong instability is expected to build across the central Plains and into parts of the northern Plains. A mid-level trough off the California coast at the beginning of the period is forecast to move northward and eventually into southern Canada. Beyond this time, the forecast uncertainty increases. Both the ECMWF and GFS suggest some troughing will advance toward the Midwest/Great Lakes, but the amplitude varies. This will have significant impact on the potential locations of severe weather and the potential for the threat to extend east of the Plains/Upper Midwest. Regardless of the exact solution of the extended range pattern, moderate mid-level flow will likely overspread much of the northern Plains and potentially portions of the central Plains. Where this mid-level flow interacts with the developing instability and thunderstorms, some severe weather is possible. However, the uncertain timing and evolution of the pattern makes identification of these corridors challenging and precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... The extended range will primarily feature the potential for Northwest flow severe across the Plains. Moderate to strong instability is expected to build across the central Plains and into parts of the northern Plains. A mid-level trough off the California coast at the beginning of the period is forecast to move northward and eventually into southern Canada. Beyond this time, the forecast uncertainty increases. Both the ECMWF and GFS suggest some troughing will advance toward the Midwest/Great Lakes, but the amplitude varies. This will have significant impact on the potential locations of severe weather and the potential for the threat to extend east of the Plains/Upper Midwest. Regardless of the exact solution of the extended range pattern, moderate mid-level flow will likely overspread much of the northern Plains and potentially portions of the central Plains. Where this mid-level flow interacts with the developing instability and thunderstorms, some severe weather is possible. However, the uncertain timing and evolution of the pattern makes identification of these corridors challenging and precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist over the Interior West, with at least one pronounced mid-level impulse expected to traverse the upper trough over the northern Great Basin tomorrow (Friday). Upper support with the embedded impulse will support high-based thunderstorm development atop a dry boundary layer over the northern Great Basin. During the afternoon, both wet and dry thunderstorms should produce dry strikes over receptive fuel beds, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central High Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Discussion... Ridging across the central CONUS will deamplify through the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across the Southeast and into the southern High Plains and the central High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along this front through the period. Weak shear and weak lapse rates should mostly limit severe weather potential across the Southeast. Moderate mid-level flow and height falls across the central High Plains may support some severe weather threat. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be in place with at least isolated to scattered storms anticipated. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. A greater wind threat could materialize if greater storm coverage occurs and storms grow upscale as the low-level jet strengthens during the evening. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central High Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Discussion... Ridging across the central CONUS will deamplify through the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across the Southeast and into the southern High Plains and the central High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along this front through the period. Weak shear and weak lapse rates should mostly limit severe weather potential across the Southeast. Moderate mid-level flow and height falls across the central High Plains may support some severe weather threat. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be in place with at least isolated to scattered storms anticipated. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. A greater wind threat could materialize if greater storm coverage occurs and storms grow upscale as the low-level jet strengthens during the evening. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central High Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Discussion... Ridging across the central CONUS will deamplify through the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across the Southeast and into the southern High Plains and the central High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along this front through the period. Weak shear and weak lapse rates should mostly limit severe weather potential across the Southeast. Moderate mid-level flow and height falls across the central High Plains may support some severe weather threat. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be in place with at least isolated to scattered storms anticipated. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. A greater wind threat could materialize if greater storm coverage occurs and storms grow upscale as the low-level jet strengthens during the evening. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are expected in the central High Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Discussion... Ridging across the central CONUS will deamplify through the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across the Southeast and into the southern High Plains and the central High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along this front through the period. Weak shear and weak lapse rates should mostly limit severe weather potential across the Southeast. Moderate mid-level flow and height falls across the central High Plains may support some severe weather threat. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be in place with at least isolated to scattered storms anticipated. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. A greater wind threat could materialize if greater storm coverage occurs and storms grow upscale as the low-level jet strengthens during the evening. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread the Interior West today, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the trough through the Day 1 period. Upper support with a glancing mid-level impulse will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin. 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours during the afternoon, warranting Critical highlights. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the Pacific Northwest and overspread a relatively dry low-level airmass. High-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with a mix of wet and dry storms possible. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread the Interior West today, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the trough through the Day 1 period. Upper support with a glancing mid-level impulse will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin. 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours during the afternoon, warranting Critical highlights. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the Pacific Northwest and overspread a relatively dry low-level airmass. High-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with a mix of wet and dry storms possible. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread the Interior West today, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the trough through the Day 1 period. Upper support with a glancing mid-level impulse will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin. 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours during the afternoon, warranting Critical highlights. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the Pacific Northwest and overspread a relatively dry low-level airmass. High-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with a mix of wet and dry storms possible. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will overspread the Interior West today, with multiple mid-level impulses poised to pivot around the trough through the Day 1 period. Upper support with a glancing mid-level impulse will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of the eastern Great Basin. 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH will overspread dry fuels for several hours during the afternoon, warranting Critical highlights. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect northward across the Pacific Northwest and overspread a relatively dry low-level airmass. High-based thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, with a mix of wet and dry storms possible. Given receptive fuels, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more