Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week into the weekend, the subtropical ridge is expected to shift westward over more of the Southwest and amplify over the Rockies by early next week as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft from CA, through the Great Basin, and into the Rockies is expected with this pattern. By mid to late next week the subtropical ridge will generally remain anchored over the Southwest. ...Day 3/Friday... A relatively small area of isolated dry thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending west to east from northern NV into the Snake River Plain and Caribou Range of ID. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also aid in ascent later in the day/evening. Forecast soundings across this region continue to suggest low PWATs atop receptive fuels. ...Day 4/Saturday... An increasing mid-level height gradient between a subtle shortwave trough, traversing the Great Basin, and the subtropical ridge to its south is expected. A very dry and deeply mixed boundary layer below this stronger flow will promote momentum transfer aloft across northern AZ and UT. Only minor adjustments were made to the low probability area for Day 4/Saturday based on the latest extended model and ensemble trends. ...Day 6/Monday... After a slight decrease in wind speeds across the Southwest and Great Basin Day 5/Sunday, an approaching Pacific trough will again result in increasing mid-level flow on the northwestern fringe of the ridge. Very similar to Day 4/Saturday's threat, a low critical probability area has been introduced for central UT and far northwestern AZ since there is very reasonable agreement within the extended solutions and ensembles for this pattern. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week into the weekend, the subtropical ridge is expected to shift westward over more of the Southwest and amplify over the Rockies by early next week as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft from CA, through the Great Basin, and into the Rockies is expected with this pattern. By mid to late next week the subtropical ridge will generally remain anchored over the Southwest. ...Day 3/Friday... A relatively small area of isolated dry thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending west to east from northern NV into the Snake River Plain and Caribou Range of ID. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also aid in ascent later in the day/evening. Forecast soundings across this region continue to suggest low PWATs atop receptive fuels. ...Day 4/Saturday... An increasing mid-level height gradient between a subtle shortwave trough, traversing the Great Basin, and the subtropical ridge to its south is expected. A very dry and deeply mixed boundary layer below this stronger flow will promote momentum transfer aloft across northern AZ and UT. Only minor adjustments were made to the low probability area for Day 4/Saturday based on the latest extended model and ensemble trends. ...Day 6/Monday... After a slight decrease in wind speeds across the Southwest and Great Basin Day 5/Sunday, an approaching Pacific trough will again result in increasing mid-level flow on the northwestern fringe of the ridge. Very similar to Day 4/Saturday's threat, a low critical probability area has been introduced for central UT and far northwestern AZ since there is very reasonable agreement within the extended solutions and ensembles for this pattern. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week into the weekend, the subtropical ridge is expected to shift westward over more of the Southwest and amplify over the Rockies by early next week as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft from CA, through the Great Basin, and into the Rockies is expected with this pattern. By mid to late next week the subtropical ridge will generally remain anchored over the Southwest. ...Day 3/Friday... A relatively small area of isolated dry thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending west to east from northern NV into the Snake River Plain and Caribou Range of ID. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also aid in ascent later in the day/evening. Forecast soundings across this region continue to suggest low PWATs atop receptive fuels. ...Day 4/Saturday... An increasing mid-level height gradient between a subtle shortwave trough, traversing the Great Basin, and the subtropical ridge to its south is expected. A very dry and deeply mixed boundary layer below this stronger flow will promote momentum transfer aloft across northern AZ and UT. Only minor adjustments were made to the low probability area for Day 4/Saturday based on the latest extended model and ensemble trends. ...Day 6/Monday... After a slight decrease in wind speeds across the Southwest and Great Basin Day 5/Sunday, an approaching Pacific trough will again result in increasing mid-level flow on the northwestern fringe of the ridge. Very similar to Day 4/Saturday's threat, a low critical probability area has been introduced for central UT and far northwestern AZ since there is very reasonable agreement within the extended solutions and ensembles for this pattern. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week into the weekend, the subtropical ridge is expected to shift westward over more of the Southwest and amplify over the Rockies by early next week as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft from CA, through the Great Basin, and into the Rockies is expected with this pattern. By mid to late next week the subtropical ridge will generally remain anchored over the Southwest. ...Day 3/Friday... A relatively small area of isolated dry thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending west to east from northern NV into the Snake River Plain and Caribou Range of ID. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also aid in ascent later in the day/evening. Forecast soundings across this region continue to suggest low PWATs atop receptive fuels. ...Day 4/Saturday... An increasing mid-level height gradient between a subtle shortwave trough, traversing the Great Basin, and the subtropical ridge to its south is expected. A very dry and deeply mixed boundary layer below this stronger flow will promote momentum transfer aloft across northern AZ and UT. Only minor adjustments were made to the low probability area for Day 4/Saturday based on the latest extended model and ensemble trends. ...Day 6/Monday... After a slight decrease in wind speeds across the Southwest and Great Basin Day 5/Sunday, an approaching Pacific trough will again result in increasing mid-level flow on the northwestern fringe of the ridge. Very similar to Day 4/Saturday's threat, a low critical probability area has been introduced for central UT and far northwestern AZ since there is very reasonable agreement within the extended solutions and ensembles for this pattern. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week into the weekend, the subtropical ridge is expected to shift westward over more of the Southwest and amplify over the Rockies by early next week as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft from CA, through the Great Basin, and into the Rockies is expected with this pattern. By mid to late next week the subtropical ridge will generally remain anchored over the Southwest. ...Day 3/Friday... A relatively small area of isolated dry thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending west to east from northern NV into the Snake River Plain and Caribou Range of ID. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also aid in ascent later in the day/evening. Forecast soundings across this region continue to suggest low PWATs atop receptive fuels. ...Day 4/Saturday... An increasing mid-level height gradient between a subtle shortwave trough, traversing the Great Basin, and the subtropical ridge to its south is expected. A very dry and deeply mixed boundary layer below this stronger flow will promote momentum transfer aloft across northern AZ and UT. Only minor adjustments were made to the low probability area for Day 4/Saturday based on the latest extended model and ensemble trends. ...Day 6/Monday... After a slight decrease in wind speeds across the Southwest and Great Basin Day 5/Sunday, an approaching Pacific trough will again result in increasing mid-level flow on the northwestern fringe of the ridge. Very similar to Day 4/Saturday's threat, a low critical probability area has been introduced for central UT and far northwestern AZ since there is very reasonable agreement within the extended solutions and ensembles for this pattern. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week into the weekend, the subtropical ridge is expected to shift westward over more of the Southwest and amplify over the Rockies by early next week as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft from CA, through the Great Basin, and into the Rockies is expected with this pattern. By mid to late next week the subtropical ridge will generally remain anchored over the Southwest. ...Day 3/Friday... A relatively small area of isolated dry thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending west to east from northern NV into the Snake River Plain and Caribou Range of ID. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also aid in ascent later in the day/evening. Forecast soundings across this region continue to suggest low PWATs atop receptive fuels. ...Day 4/Saturday... An increasing mid-level height gradient between a subtle shortwave trough, traversing the Great Basin, and the subtropical ridge to its south is expected. A very dry and deeply mixed boundary layer below this stronger flow will promote momentum transfer aloft across northern AZ and UT. Only minor adjustments were made to the low probability area for Day 4/Saturday based on the latest extended model and ensemble trends. ...Day 6/Monday... After a slight decrease in wind speeds across the Southwest and Great Basin Day 5/Sunday, an approaching Pacific trough will again result in increasing mid-level flow on the northwestern fringe of the ridge. Very similar to Day 4/Saturday's threat, a low critical probability area has been introduced for central UT and far northwestern AZ since there is very reasonable agreement within the extended solutions and ensembles for this pattern. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week into the weekend, the subtropical ridge is expected to shift westward over more of the Southwest and amplify over the Rockies by early next week as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft from CA, through the Great Basin, and into the Rockies is expected with this pattern. By mid to late next week the subtropical ridge will generally remain anchored over the Southwest. ...Day 3/Friday... A relatively small area of isolated dry thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending west to east from northern NV into the Snake River Plain and Caribou Range of ID. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also aid in ascent later in the day/evening. Forecast soundings across this region continue to suggest low PWATs atop receptive fuels. ...Day 4/Saturday... An increasing mid-level height gradient between a subtle shortwave trough, traversing the Great Basin, and the subtropical ridge to its south is expected. A very dry and deeply mixed boundary layer below this stronger flow will promote momentum transfer aloft across northern AZ and UT. Only minor adjustments were made to the low probability area for Day 4/Saturday based on the latest extended model and ensemble trends. ...Day 6/Monday... After a slight decrease in wind speeds across the Southwest and Great Basin Day 5/Sunday, an approaching Pacific trough will again result in increasing mid-level flow on the northwestern fringe of the ridge. Very similar to Day 4/Saturday's threat, a low critical probability area has been introduced for central UT and far northwestern AZ since there is very reasonable agreement within the extended solutions and ensembles for this pattern. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week into the weekend, the subtropical ridge is expected to shift westward over more of the Southwest and amplify over the Rockies by early next week as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft from CA, through the Great Basin, and into the Rockies is expected with this pattern. By mid to late next week the subtropical ridge will generally remain anchored over the Southwest. ...Day 3/Friday... A relatively small area of isolated dry thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending west to east from northern NV into the Snake River Plain and Caribou Range of ID. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also aid in ascent later in the day/evening. Forecast soundings across this region continue to suggest low PWATs atop receptive fuels. ...Day 4/Saturday... An increasing mid-level height gradient between a subtle shortwave trough, traversing the Great Basin, and the subtropical ridge to its south is expected. A very dry and deeply mixed boundary layer below this stronger flow will promote momentum transfer aloft across northern AZ and UT. Only minor adjustments were made to the low probability area for Day 4/Saturday based on the latest extended model and ensemble trends. ...Day 6/Monday... After a slight decrease in wind speeds across the Southwest and Great Basin Day 5/Sunday, an approaching Pacific trough will again result in increasing mid-level flow on the northwestern fringe of the ridge. Very similar to Day 4/Saturday's threat, a low critical probability area has been introduced for central UT and far northwestern AZ since there is very reasonable agreement within the extended solutions and ensembles for this pattern. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 30 20:16:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...CENTRAL UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Update... Given the latest projected position of the mid-level shortwave trough and hi-resolution model trends for tomorrow/Thursday, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was shifted eastward over more of the Great Basin where a lack of widespread rainfall continues to result in receptive fuels. For the Elevated area within the rest of the Great Basin, northwestern AZ, UT, and a portion of the Rockies, an upgrade to Critical was made through most of central UT where sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph are expected to persist for several hours. The Elevated area was also extended eastward to account for higher wind speeds and low teen to single-digit RH. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, with embedded impulses, will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging persists across the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Thursday). Mid-level perturbations pivoting around the West Coast upper trough will encourage widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across much of the Great Basin. Since these conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. As a mid-level impulse gradually drifts northward across the Pacific Northwest, scattered thunderstorms will develop atop a dry boundary layer and dry fuels. However, PWATs may be higher compared to previous days, suggesting a potential mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. While isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced, consideration was also given for introducing Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. However, the possibility for several storms producing wetting rains, and the potential for widespread stability to overspread the Pacific Northwest due to high-density thunderstorm coverage from Day 1, precludes greater highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...CENTRAL UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Update... Given the latest projected position of the mid-level shortwave trough and hi-resolution model trends for tomorrow/Thursday, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was shifted eastward over more of the Great Basin where a lack of widespread rainfall continues to result in receptive fuels. For the Elevated area within the rest of the Great Basin, northwestern AZ, UT, and a portion of the Rockies, an upgrade to Critical was made through most of central UT where sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph are expected to persist for several hours. The Elevated area was also extended eastward to account for higher wind speeds and low teen to single-digit RH. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, with embedded impulses, will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging persists across the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Thursday). Mid-level perturbations pivoting around the West Coast upper trough will encourage widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across much of the Great Basin. Since these conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. As a mid-level impulse gradually drifts northward across the Pacific Northwest, scattered thunderstorms will develop atop a dry boundary layer and dry fuels. However, PWATs may be higher compared to previous days, suggesting a potential mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. While isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced, consideration was also given for introducing Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. However, the possibility for several storms producing wetting rains, and the potential for widespread stability to overspread the Pacific Northwest due to high-density thunderstorm coverage from Day 1, precludes greater highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...CENTRAL UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Update... Given the latest projected position of the mid-level shortwave trough and hi-resolution model trends for tomorrow/Thursday, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was shifted eastward over more of the Great Basin where a lack of widespread rainfall continues to result in receptive fuels. For the Elevated area within the rest of the Great Basin, northwestern AZ, UT, and a portion of the Rockies, an upgrade to Critical was made through most of central UT where sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph are expected to persist for several hours. The Elevated area was also extended eastward to account for higher wind speeds and low teen to single-digit RH. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, with embedded impulses, will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging persists across the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Thursday). Mid-level perturbations pivoting around the West Coast upper trough will encourage widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across much of the Great Basin. Since these conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. As a mid-level impulse gradually drifts northward across the Pacific Northwest, scattered thunderstorms will develop atop a dry boundary layer and dry fuels. However, PWATs may be higher compared to previous days, suggesting a potential mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. While isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced, consideration was also given for introducing Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. However, the possibility for several storms producing wetting rains, and the potential for widespread stability to overspread the Pacific Northwest due to high-density thunderstorm coverage from Day 1, precludes greater highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...CENTRAL UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Update... Given the latest projected position of the mid-level shortwave trough and hi-resolution model trends for tomorrow/Thursday, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was shifted eastward over more of the Great Basin where a lack of widespread rainfall continues to result in receptive fuels. For the Elevated area within the rest of the Great Basin, northwestern AZ, UT, and a portion of the Rockies, an upgrade to Critical was made through most of central UT where sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph are expected to persist for several hours. The Elevated area was also extended eastward to account for higher wind speeds and low teen to single-digit RH. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, with embedded impulses, will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging persists across the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Thursday). Mid-level perturbations pivoting around the West Coast upper trough will encourage widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across much of the Great Basin. Since these conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. As a mid-level impulse gradually drifts northward across the Pacific Northwest, scattered thunderstorms will develop atop a dry boundary layer and dry fuels. However, PWATs may be higher compared to previous days, suggesting a potential mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. While isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced, consideration was also given for introducing Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. However, the possibility for several storms producing wetting rains, and the potential for widespread stability to overspread the Pacific Northwest due to high-density thunderstorm coverage from Day 1, precludes greater highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...CENTRAL UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Update... Given the latest projected position of the mid-level shortwave trough and hi-resolution model trends for tomorrow/Thursday, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was shifted eastward over more of the Great Basin where a lack of widespread rainfall continues to result in receptive fuels. For the Elevated area within the rest of the Great Basin, northwestern AZ, UT, and a portion of the Rockies, an upgrade to Critical was made through most of central UT where sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph are expected to persist for several hours. The Elevated area was also extended eastward to account for higher wind speeds and low teen to single-digit RH. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, with embedded impulses, will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging persists across the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Thursday). Mid-level perturbations pivoting around the West Coast upper trough will encourage widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across much of the Great Basin. Since these conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. As a mid-level impulse gradually drifts northward across the Pacific Northwest, scattered thunderstorms will develop atop a dry boundary layer and dry fuels. However, PWATs may be higher compared to previous days, suggesting a potential mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. While isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced, consideration was also given for introducing Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. However, the possibility for several storms producing wetting rains, and the potential for widespread stability to overspread the Pacific Northwest due to high-density thunderstorm coverage from Day 1, precludes greater highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...CENTRAL UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Update... Given the latest projected position of the mid-level shortwave trough and hi-resolution model trends for tomorrow/Thursday, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was shifted eastward over more of the Great Basin where a lack of widespread rainfall continues to result in receptive fuels. For the Elevated area within the rest of the Great Basin, northwestern AZ, UT, and a portion of the Rockies, an upgrade to Critical was made through most of central UT where sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph are expected to persist for several hours. The Elevated area was also extended eastward to account for higher wind speeds and low teen to single-digit RH. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, with embedded impulses, will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging persists across the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Thursday). Mid-level perturbations pivoting around the West Coast upper trough will encourage widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across much of the Great Basin. Since these conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. As a mid-level impulse gradually drifts northward across the Pacific Northwest, scattered thunderstorms will develop atop a dry boundary layer and dry fuels. However, PWATs may be higher compared to previous days, suggesting a potential mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. While isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced, consideration was also given for introducing Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. However, the possibility for several storms producing wetting rains, and the potential for widespread stability to overspread the Pacific Northwest due to high-density thunderstorm coverage from Day 1, precludes greater highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...CENTRAL UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Update... Given the latest projected position of the mid-level shortwave trough and hi-resolution model trends for tomorrow/Thursday, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was shifted eastward over more of the Great Basin where a lack of widespread rainfall continues to result in receptive fuels. For the Elevated area within the rest of the Great Basin, northwestern AZ, UT, and a portion of the Rockies, an upgrade to Critical was made through most of central UT where sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph are expected to persist for several hours. The Elevated area was also extended eastward to account for higher wind speeds and low teen to single-digit RH. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, with embedded impulses, will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging persists across the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Thursday). Mid-level perturbations pivoting around the West Coast upper trough will encourage widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across much of the Great Basin. Since these conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. As a mid-level impulse gradually drifts northward across the Pacific Northwest, scattered thunderstorms will develop atop a dry boundary layer and dry fuels. However, PWATs may be higher compared to previous days, suggesting a potential mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. While isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced, consideration was also given for introducing Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. However, the possibility for several storms producing wetting rains, and the potential for widespread stability to overspread the Pacific Northwest due to high-density thunderstorm coverage from Day 1, precludes greater highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...CENTRAL UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Update... Given the latest projected position of the mid-level shortwave trough and hi-resolution model trends for tomorrow/Thursday, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was shifted eastward over more of the Great Basin where a lack of widespread rainfall continues to result in receptive fuels. For the Elevated area within the rest of the Great Basin, northwestern AZ, UT, and a portion of the Rockies, an upgrade to Critical was made through most of central UT where sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph are expected to persist for several hours. The Elevated area was also extended eastward to account for higher wind speeds and low teen to single-digit RH. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, with embedded impulses, will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging persists across the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Thursday). Mid-level perturbations pivoting around the West Coast upper trough will encourage widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across much of the Great Basin. Since these conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. As a mid-level impulse gradually drifts northward across the Pacific Northwest, scattered thunderstorms will develop atop a dry boundary layer and dry fuels. However, PWATs may be higher compared to previous days, suggesting a potential mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. While isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced, consideration was also given for introducing Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. However, the possibility for several storms producing wetting rains, and the potential for widespread stability to overspread the Pacific Northwest due to high-density thunderstorm coverage from Day 1, precludes greater highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...CENTRAL UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN COLORADO... ...Update... Given the latest projected position of the mid-level shortwave trough and hi-resolution model trends for tomorrow/Thursday, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was shifted eastward over more of the Great Basin where a lack of widespread rainfall continues to result in receptive fuels. For the Elevated area within the rest of the Great Basin, northwestern AZ, UT, and a portion of the Rockies, an upgrade to Critical was made through most of central UT where sustained wind speeds near 20-25 mph are expected to persist for several hours. The Elevated area was also extended eastward to account for higher wind speeds and low teen to single-digit RH. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough, with embedded impulses, will linger along the West Coast as upper ridging persists across the central and eastern U.S. tomorrow (Thursday). Mid-level perturbations pivoting around the West Coast upper trough will encourage widespread 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across much of the Great Basin. Since these conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights have been introduced. As a mid-level impulse gradually drifts northward across the Pacific Northwest, scattered thunderstorms will develop atop a dry boundary layer and dry fuels. However, PWATs may be higher compared to previous days, suggesting a potential mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. While isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been introduced, consideration was also given for introducing Scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. However, the possibility for several storms producing wetting rains, and the potential for widespread stability to overspread the Pacific Northwest due to high-density thunderstorm coverage from Day 1, precludes greater highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1848 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COLORADO FRONT RANGE
Mesoscale Discussion 1848 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...Colorado Front Range Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 301810Z - 302015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of isolated occurrences of severe hail or severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon across the Colorado Front Range into portions of the Eastern Colorado Plains. Given the localized nature of any severe threat, weather watch issuance is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing over the Central and Front Range of the Rocky Mountains has resulted in widespread thunderstorm development that is expected to continue and persist into eastern Colorado. With most unstable CAPE only reaching 500-1000 J/kg and a relative dearth of deep-layer vertical shear, there is not much environmental support for widespread organized severe convection. However, with freezing levels near the surface-based parcel LFC heights, and inverted-V boundary layer profiles evident in proximity soundings, some isolated incidents of <= 1.25 in hail and severe wind gusts (largely <= 60 MPH) are possible. Some locally higher wind gusts could occur if any convection develops leading-edge outflow or shows signs of transient organization into linear clusters. ..Halbert/Smith.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT... LAT...LON 38280624 38610643 39130647 39550639 40240652 40370660 40570679 40730686 40870678 40950653 40950630 40970587 40970515 40340482 39830463 39430451 38960456 38360488 38160524 38040556 38040600 38190615 38280624 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Hail/wind risk probabilities were adjusted across portions of KS into MO and IL to better align with ongoing convection and the progression of a residual outflow boundary in IL/MO and a southward moving cold front in KS. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1847 and 1848 for additional details. ..Moore.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. Read more