Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible in portions of the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range and storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible in the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen across the central US on D2/Thursday. A belt of enhanced westerly flow moving through the trough across southeastern Canada will overspread a cold front across portions of the Mid Atlantic. The surface cold front will extend from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Southern Plains. ...Central High Plains... Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the high terrain in Wyoming and northern Colorado. Across this region, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear around 25-35 kts will support potential for a few supercells. These storms would be capable of strong to severe wind and some instances of large hail as they move out of the high terrain. ...Mid-Atlantic... Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase near and south of the surface cold front in the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon. Enhanced flow from the trough will support deep layer shear around 30-40 kts. Mode will likely be mixed with multi-cell clusters developing by the late afternoon. Deep moisture and moderate MLCAPE south of the front will support potential for strong to severe winds from wet downbursts. ..Thornton.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL OREGON INTO EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH FOR WINDY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS... ...Update... A slight southward extension of the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was made to include more of the northern Sierra Range of CA today. Farther east across southwestern UT, the latest hi-res model trends suggest the duration of sustained wind speeds over 20 mph will exceed 3 hours. These breezy conditions, combined with RH around 10% this afternoon juxtaposed with receptive fuels, has led to an upgrade of Critical there. The Elevated area was also extended east and southeastward over more of northwestern AZ and south central UT for the same reasons. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast while upper ridging persists across the CONUS east of the Rockies today. A pronounced mid-level impulse will pivot around the mid-level trough and move north across the Pacific Northwest through the day. Upper support from this glancing impulse will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Great Basin, and scattered thunderstorm development over the Pacific Northwest. ...Great Basin... Upper support from the glancing mid-level impulse will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for several hours during the afternoon. These dry and breezy conditions will overspread fuel beds that are receptive to fire spread, warranting the introduction of elevated highlights. ...Pacific Northwest... Mid-level moisture will also pivot around the upper trough, with the aforementioned mid-level impulse acting as a source of enhanced lift to support several clusters of high-based thunderstorms by mid afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest, warranting isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles on a widespread basis across extreme northwest Nevada, extreme northern California, and much of central Oregon, including in some regions west of the Cascades. The passage of the mid-level impulse may also support faster storm speeds, and some of the stronger storms may even produce erratic wind gusts. The expectation for faster moving, higher density clusters of thunderstorms overspreading very dry fuels necessitates scattered dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. ..Smith/Halbert.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. ..Smith/Halbert.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. ..Smith/Halbert.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. ..Smith/Halbert.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. ..Smith/Halbert.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. ..Smith/Halbert.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. ..Smith/Halbert.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. ..Smith/Halbert.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. ..Smith/Halbert.. 07/30/2025 Read more