Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes, and over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a sub-severe squall line from near Saint Louis into northern IL moving slowly east-southeastward across the Corn Belt. Some rejuvenation of storm intensity may occur with storms along the leading edge of the cold pool as it moves into eastern IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage may occur with this activity. Farther west, a weak mid-level shortwave disturbance is implied in satellite imagery near the KS/NE border, and a surface low was analyzed over south-central KS along the trailing frontal zone. These features may aid in focusing scattered storms this afternoon over parts of central and eastern KS. The boundary layer continues to heat/destabilize with surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across central and eastern KS. Isolated severe gusts and possibly large hail may accompany the stronger storms late this afternoon into the evening. ...High Plains... A seasonably moist airmass resides across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains late this morning. Water-vapor imagery and earlier radar mosaic data implied a weak disturbance cresting a ridge over the northern WY/southern MT border. Influence from this disturbance and westerly 40-50 kt high-level flow will support some storm organization potential. Forecast soundings across central WY show 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear 30-40 kt. This may support a couple of supercells capable of threat for large hail. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may evolve in central WY late this afternoon into the early evening, coincident with a risk for severe gusts. Farther south, storm coverage may be locally greater across the Front Range and I-25 corridor from Denver to Pueblo. Isolated to widely scattered wind/hail seem likely with the stronger cores/outflow. Elsewhere, it appears an isolated risk for severe will encompass the larger general area from southern MT into eastern CO. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward into a moist/adequately unstable airmass across New England and parts of NY/PA this afternoon into the evening. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak and will limit overall storm coverage. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. For short-term details regarding the severe risk in portions of northern New England, refer to MCD #1846. ..Smith/Halbert.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... A long-lived linear MCS is tracking eastward across parts of IA/MO this morning. This activity is expected to persist through much of the day and affect parts of IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Ample low-level moisture is present across this region, and the convectively-aided shortwave trough associated with the MCS will provide sufficient vertical shear for some concern for a few severe wind gusts through the day. An upgrade to SLGT risk was considered for this region, but given the expansive shield of clouds ahead of the storms, coupled with a consensus of model guidance showing limited intensity to the storms, chose to maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate at 1630z. ...High Plains... Similar to yesterday, ample mid-level moisture is present across the central Rockies into WY. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from parts of central CO into central/western WY. Winds aloft are slightly stronger than yesterday, which will provide an uptick in vertical shear and convective organization. Hail and gusty winds will be possible with storms that form over the higher terrain and spread into the adjacent plains through the afternoon and early evening. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward across New England and parts of NY/PA today, with a moist and moderately unstable air mass expected ahead of the boundary. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak, with only widely scattered thunderstorm coverage expected. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... A long-lived linear MCS is tracking eastward across parts of IA/MO this morning. This activity is expected to persist through much of the day and affect parts of IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Ample low-level moisture is present across this region, and the convectively-aided shortwave trough associated with the MCS will provide sufficient vertical shear for some concern for a few severe wind gusts through the day. An upgrade to SLGT risk was considered for this region, but given the expansive shield of clouds ahead of the storms, coupled with a consensus of model guidance showing limited intensity to the storms, chose to maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate at 1630z. ...High Plains... Similar to yesterday, ample mid-level moisture is present across the central Rockies into WY. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from parts of central CO into central/western WY. Winds aloft are slightly stronger than yesterday, which will provide an uptick in vertical shear and convective organization. Hail and gusty winds will be possible with storms that form over the higher terrain and spread into the adjacent plains through the afternoon and early evening. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward across New England and parts of NY/PA today, with a moist and moderately unstable air mass expected ahead of the boundary. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak, with only widely scattered thunderstorm coverage expected. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... A long-lived linear MCS is tracking eastward across parts of IA/MO this morning. This activity is expected to persist through much of the day and affect parts of IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Ample low-level moisture is present across this region, and the convectively-aided shortwave trough associated with the MCS will provide sufficient vertical shear for some concern for a few severe wind gusts through the day. An upgrade to SLGT risk was considered for this region, but given the expansive shield of clouds ahead of the storms, coupled with a consensus of model guidance showing limited intensity to the storms, chose to maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate at 1630z. ...High Plains... Similar to yesterday, ample mid-level moisture is present across the central Rockies into WY. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from parts of central CO into central/western WY. Winds aloft are slightly stronger than yesterday, which will provide an uptick in vertical shear and convective organization. Hail and gusty winds will be possible with storms that form over the higher terrain and spread into the adjacent plains through the afternoon and early evening. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward across New England and parts of NY/PA today, with a moist and moderately unstable air mass expected ahead of the boundary. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak, with only widely scattered thunderstorm coverage expected. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... A long-lived linear MCS is tracking eastward across parts of IA/MO this morning. This activity is expected to persist through much of the day and affect parts of IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Ample low-level moisture is present across this region, and the convectively-aided shortwave trough associated with the MCS will provide sufficient vertical shear for some concern for a few severe wind gusts through the day. An upgrade to SLGT risk was considered for this region, but given the expansive shield of clouds ahead of the storms, coupled with a consensus of model guidance showing limited intensity to the storms, chose to maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate at 1630z. ...High Plains... Similar to yesterday, ample mid-level moisture is present across the central Rockies into WY. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from parts of central CO into central/western WY. Winds aloft are slightly stronger than yesterday, which will provide an uptick in vertical shear and convective organization. Hail and gusty winds will be possible with storms that form over the higher terrain and spread into the adjacent plains through the afternoon and early evening. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward across New England and parts of NY/PA today, with a moist and moderately unstable air mass expected ahead of the boundary. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak, with only widely scattered thunderstorm coverage expected. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... A long-lived linear MCS is tracking eastward across parts of IA/MO this morning. This activity is expected to persist through much of the day and affect parts of IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Ample low-level moisture is present across this region, and the convectively-aided shortwave trough associated with the MCS will provide sufficient vertical shear for some concern for a few severe wind gusts through the day. An upgrade to SLGT risk was considered for this region, but given the expansive shield of clouds ahead of the storms, coupled with a consensus of model guidance showing limited intensity to the storms, chose to maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate at 1630z. ...High Plains... Similar to yesterday, ample mid-level moisture is present across the central Rockies into WY. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from parts of central CO into central/western WY. Winds aloft are slightly stronger than yesterday, which will provide an uptick in vertical shear and convective organization. Hail and gusty winds will be possible with storms that form over the higher terrain and spread into the adjacent plains through the afternoon and early evening. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward across New England and parts of NY/PA today, with a moist and moderately unstable air mass expected ahead of the boundary. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak, with only widely scattered thunderstorm coverage expected. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND LOWER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO MIDWEST AREA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Missouri/Mid Mississippi Valleys, over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region, and from southern Montana across Wyoming and Colorado. ...Mid MS Valley... A long-lived linear MCS is tracking eastward across parts of IA/MO this morning. This activity is expected to persist through much of the day and affect parts of IL/IN/OH/Lower MI. Ample low-level moisture is present across this region, and the convectively-aided shortwave trough associated with the MCS will provide sufficient vertical shear for some concern for a few severe wind gusts through the day. An upgrade to SLGT risk was considered for this region, but given the expansive shield of clouds ahead of the storms, coupled with a consensus of model guidance showing limited intensity to the storms, chose to maintain MRGL risk and re-evaluate at 1630z. ...High Plains... Similar to yesterday, ample mid-level moisture is present across the central Rockies into WY. This will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from parts of central CO into central/western WY. Winds aloft are slightly stronger than yesterday, which will provide an uptick in vertical shear and convective organization. Hail and gusty winds will be possible with storms that form over the higher terrain and spread into the adjacent plains through the afternoon and early evening. ...Northeast... A weak surface cold front will sag southward across New England and parts of NY/PA today, with a moist and moderately unstable air mass expected ahead of the boundary. Low-level convergence along the front will be weak, with only widely scattered thunderstorm coverage expected. However, cool temperatures aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and at least small hail in the storms that form this afternoon. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/30/2025 Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E LWD TO 10 NW CID. WW 561 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 301200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-051-179-301200- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE DAVIS WAPELLO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E LWD TO 10 NW CID. WW 561 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 301200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845. ..GRAMS..07/30/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-051-179-301200- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE DAVIS WAPELLO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1845 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561... FOR SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHWEST IL...FAR NORTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1845 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...southeast IA...northwest IL...far northeast MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561... Valid 300949Z - 301045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts of 40-60 mph will remain possible through mid-morning. An additional watch issuance beyond WW 561 is not planned. DISCUSSION...A pair of MCSs persist from northwest MO to far northwest IL. The lead one had been more productive in terms of measured strong to severe gusts earlier this morning, but has shown clear signs of decay over the past couple hours while crossing the MS Valley. A near-term strong gust threat could still occur across far northern IL, near the WI border, but should subside in the next couple hours given the dearth of MLCAPE in this region northward. The larger MCS has struggled to produce stronger gusts perhaps in part due to its northeast/southwest orientation paralleling the deep-layer shear vector. Still, with deep convective cores for this time of day, it is plausible that an oscillatory uptick to marginal severe intensity may yet occur across southeast IA, perhaps spreading into far northeast MO and northwest/west-central IL through mid-morning. ..Grams/Hart.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 42478995 42608907 42248881 41768881 41088900 40329024 40119156 40449304 40769334 41469273 41909244 41749189 41569120 41619046 42079000 42478995 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 561 SEVERE TSTM IA 300625Z - 301200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 561 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Iowa * Effective this Wednesday morning from 125 AM until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will affect central Iowa overnight, with a persistent risk of gusty and occasionally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Des Moines IA to 20 miles east of Lamoni IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 559...WW 560... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend and usher in an extended period of cooler and less humid weather for much of the eastern CONUS with reduced severe weather chances. Some severe weather chances will remain from the central High Plains to the northern Plains where low-level moisture is expected to remain. Several weak embedded mid-level shortwave troughs may result in some thunderstorm activity from the central to northern High Plains amid moderate to strong instability. A few severe storms are possible early next week with any of these passing troughs. There is some signal that a more organized severe weather threat could materialize by the middle of next week as strong instability builds across the northern Plains and stronger mid-level troughing and flow becomes more prevalent across the region. However, predictability is low within this low-amplitude pattern. There is not much consensus for the overall pattern beyond D6/Monday and therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend and usher in an extended period of cooler and less humid weather for much of the eastern CONUS with reduced severe weather chances. Some severe weather chances will remain from the central High Plains to the northern Plains where low-level moisture is expected to remain. Several weak embedded mid-level shortwave troughs may result in some thunderstorm activity from the central to northern High Plains amid moderate to strong instability. A few severe storms are possible early next week with any of these passing troughs. There is some signal that a more organized severe weather threat could materialize by the middle of next week as strong instability builds across the northern Plains and stronger mid-level troughing and flow becomes more prevalent across the region. However, predictability is low within this low-amplitude pattern. There is not much consensus for the overall pattern beyond D6/Monday and therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend and usher in an extended period of cooler and less humid weather for much of the eastern CONUS with reduced severe weather chances. Some severe weather chances will remain from the central High Plains to the northern Plains where low-level moisture is expected to remain. Several weak embedded mid-level shortwave troughs may result in some thunderstorm activity from the central to northern High Plains amid moderate to strong instability. A few severe storms are possible early next week with any of these passing troughs. There is some signal that a more organized severe weather threat could materialize by the middle of next week as strong instability builds across the northern Plains and stronger mid-level troughing and flow becomes more prevalent across the region. However, predictability is low within this low-amplitude pattern. There is not much consensus for the overall pattern beyond D6/Monday and therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend and usher in an extended period of cooler and less humid weather for much of the eastern CONUS with reduced severe weather chances. Some severe weather chances will remain from the central High Plains to the northern Plains where low-level moisture is expected to remain. Several weak embedded mid-level shortwave troughs may result in some thunderstorm activity from the central to northern High Plains amid moderate to strong instability. A few severe storms are possible early next week with any of these passing troughs. There is some signal that a more organized severe weather threat could materialize by the middle of next week as strong instability builds across the northern Plains and stronger mid-level troughing and flow becomes more prevalent across the region. However, predictability is low within this low-amplitude pattern. There is not much consensus for the overall pattern beyond D6/Monday and therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend and usher in an extended period of cooler and less humid weather for much of the eastern CONUS with reduced severe weather chances. Some severe weather chances will remain from the central High Plains to the northern Plains where low-level moisture is expected to remain. Several weak embedded mid-level shortwave troughs may result in some thunderstorm activity from the central to northern High Plains amid moderate to strong instability. A few severe storms are possible early next week with any of these passing troughs. There is some signal that a more organized severe weather threat could materialize by the middle of next week as strong instability builds across the northern Plains and stronger mid-level troughing and flow becomes more prevalent across the region. However, predictability is low within this low-amplitude pattern. There is not much consensus for the overall pattern beyond D6/Monday and therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend and usher in an extended period of cooler and less humid weather for much of the eastern CONUS with reduced severe weather chances. Some severe weather chances will remain from the central High Plains to the northern Plains where low-level moisture is expected to remain. Several weak embedded mid-level shortwave troughs may result in some thunderstorm activity from the central to northern High Plains amid moderate to strong instability. A few severe storms are possible early next week with any of these passing troughs. There is some signal that a more organized severe weather threat could materialize by the middle of next week as strong instability builds across the northern Plains and stronger mid-level troughing and flow becomes more prevalent across the region. However, predictability is low within this low-amplitude pattern. There is not much consensus for the overall pattern beyond D6/Monday and therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend and usher in an extended period of cooler and less humid weather for much of the eastern CONUS with reduced severe weather chances. Some severe weather chances will remain from the central High Plains to the northern Plains where low-level moisture is expected to remain. Several weak embedded mid-level shortwave troughs may result in some thunderstorm activity from the central to northern High Plains amid moderate to strong instability. A few severe storms are possible early next week with any of these passing troughs. There is some signal that a more organized severe weather threat could materialize by the middle of next week as strong instability builds across the northern Plains and stronger mid-level troughing and flow becomes more prevalent across the region. However, predictability is low within this low-amplitude pattern. There is not much consensus for the overall pattern beyond D6/Monday and therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend and usher in an extended period of cooler and less humid weather for much of the eastern CONUS with reduced severe weather chances. Some severe weather chances will remain from the central High Plains to the northern Plains where low-level moisture is expected to remain. Several weak embedded mid-level shortwave troughs may result in some thunderstorm activity from the central to northern High Plains amid moderate to strong instability. A few severe storms are possible early next week with any of these passing troughs. There is some signal that a more organized severe weather threat could materialize by the middle of next week as strong instability builds across the northern Plains and stronger mid-level troughing and flow becomes more prevalent across the region. However, predictability is low within this low-amplitude pattern. There is not much consensus for the overall pattern beyond D6/Monday and therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend and usher in an extended period of cooler and less humid weather for much of the eastern CONUS with reduced severe weather chances. Some severe weather chances will remain from the central High Plains to the northern Plains where low-level moisture is expected to remain. Several weak embedded mid-level shortwave troughs may result in some thunderstorm activity from the central to northern High Plains amid moderate to strong instability. A few severe storms are possible early next week with any of these passing troughs. There is some signal that a more organized severe weather threat could materialize by the middle of next week as strong instability builds across the northern Plains and stronger mid-level troughing and flow becomes more prevalent across the region. However, predictability is low within this low-amplitude pattern. There is not much consensus for the overall pattern beyond D6/Monday and therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time. Read more