Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Friday. ...Discussion... Ridging across the central CONUS will deamplify through the period. At the surface, a cold front will extend across the Southeast and into the southern High Plains and the central High Plains. Thunderstorms are expected along this front through the period. Weak shear and weak lapse rates should mostly limit severe weather potential across the Southeast. Moderate mid-level flow and height falls across the central High Plains may support some severe weather threat. Moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be in place with at least isolated to scattered storms anticipated. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. A greater wind threat could materialize if greater storm coverage occurs and storms grow upscale as the low-level jet strengthens during the evening. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to potentially scattered severe storms are possible in the central High Plains and across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak ridge, centered across the central US, will remain mostly stationary through the day on Friday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the apex of this ridge and move across the Rockies and into the Plains during the day. A trough across the northeast will shift eastward through the day and over the Atlantic by Friday evening. At the surface, high pressure will build southward across the Great Lakes and shunt a surface cold front to near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. ...Southeast... Strong instability is forecast to develop across the Southeast on Friday as temperatures warm into the 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear and mid-level lapse rates are expected to be weak, which will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, widespread storm coverage amid strong instability and a very moist (2+ inch PWAT) environment will support the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central High Plains... Diurnal thunderstorms are expected across the Rockies by early afternoon on Friday. Moderate instability will develop east of the higher terrain by this time and provide ample buoyancy for strengthening updrafts as these storms emerge into the Plains during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively weak, but stronger flow around 7-8 km may provide sufficient shear/venting for more organized storms including a few potential supercells. Large hail will be the primary threat given the potential for supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates, but some damaging wind gusts will also be possible given the deeply-mixed boundary layer indicated by forecast soundings. ..Bentley.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse will support the development of at least scattered strong thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters, which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe storms are possible. ...Mid Atlantic... Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Arkansas... By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest, surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000 J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of which may produce a couple of damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains... By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail being with supercells. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse will support the development of at least scattered strong thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters, which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe storms are possible. ...Mid Atlantic... Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Arkansas... By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest, surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000 J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of which may produce a couple of damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains... By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail being with supercells. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse will support the development of at least scattered strong thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters, which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe storms are possible. ...Mid Atlantic... Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Arkansas... By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest, surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000 J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of which may produce a couple of damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains... By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail being with supercells. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse will support the development of at least scattered strong thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters, which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe storms are possible. ...Mid Atlantic... Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Arkansas... By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest, surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000 J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of which may produce a couple of damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains... By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail being with supercells. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms, capable of mainly damaging winds, are possible across the Mid-Atlantic and Arkansas during the afternoon. Severe wind and hail producing storms are also expected across the northern Rockies into the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will traverse the Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the Central U.S. and broad upper troughing becomes established over the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon with the passage of an embedded mid-level impulse within the broader trough, which will encourage widespread strong thunderstorm development. Across portions of Arkansas and immediate adjacent areas, a weak impulse will support the development of at least scattered strong thunderstorms amid ample buoyancy. Across the northern Rockies into the northern and central High Plains, an embedded mid-level impulse will result in the initiation of several thunderstorm clusters, which will move over the higher terrain during the afternoon. Given adequate buoyancy and shear in these regions, strong to severe storms are possible. ...Mid Atlantic... Thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F, and quickly translate eastward given 40+ kts of 500 mb westerly flow. Surface dewpoints will reach well into the 70s F, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates. The strong instability and 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will encourage the development of strong multicells and perhaps a transient supercell. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though an instance or two of hail are possible, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Arkansas... By early afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop amid strong heating and minimal MLCINH. While lapse rates will be modest, surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F will boost MLCAPE to around 4000 J/kg. Despite weak shear, strong pulse-cellular and multicellular clusters will develop with wet downburst potential, the strongest of which may produce a couple of damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Northern Rockies into the Central High Plains... By mid-afternoon, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop atop the higher terrain of the Rockies, driven by a glancing mid-level impulse and orographic lift. These storms will progress eastward toward the northern/central High Plains amid 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (contributing to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 20-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show hodographs with modest elongation and some curvature, suggesting that both multicellular complexes and supercells are possible. The stronger storms will support a severe hail/wind threat, with the best chance of hail being with supercells. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few instances of severe wind/hail remain possible across parts of Kansas and the central/northern High Plains this evening. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing persists across the western U.S. as an upper ridge remains in place over the central CONUS. A mid-level trough continues to progress across the Northeast, albeit with diminishing buoyancy. Thunderstorm clusters will persist for many areas west of the Rockies given large-scale lift and adequate buoyancy. Storms east of the Rockies are thriving primarily on rich low-level moisture and residual buoyancy from strong diurnal heating. A chance for an additional instance of severe wind or hail remain with storms across Kansas, where buoyancy is strongest in the central/southern Plains. Storms are strengthening along and to the east of the central/northern Rockies where both buoyancy and deep-layer are maximized (i.e. 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-50 kts in place), and it is here where isolated severe wind and hail may still be observed. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few instances of severe wind/hail remain possible across parts of Kansas and the central/northern High Plains this evening. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing persists across the western U.S. as an upper ridge remains in place over the central CONUS. A mid-level trough continues to progress across the Northeast, albeit with diminishing buoyancy. Thunderstorm clusters will persist for many areas west of the Rockies given large-scale lift and adequate buoyancy. Storms east of the Rockies are thriving primarily on rich low-level moisture and residual buoyancy from strong diurnal heating. A chance for an additional instance of severe wind or hail remain with storms across Kansas, where buoyancy is strongest in the central/southern Plains. Storms are strengthening along and to the east of the central/northern Rockies where both buoyancy and deep-layer are maximized (i.e. 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-50 kts in place), and it is here where isolated severe wind and hail may still be observed. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few instances of severe wind/hail remain possible across parts of Kansas and the central/northern High Plains this evening. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing persists across the western U.S. as an upper ridge remains in place over the central CONUS. A mid-level trough continues to progress across the Northeast, albeit with diminishing buoyancy. Thunderstorm clusters will persist for many areas west of the Rockies given large-scale lift and adequate buoyancy. Storms east of the Rockies are thriving primarily on rich low-level moisture and residual buoyancy from strong diurnal heating. A chance for an additional instance of severe wind or hail remain with storms across Kansas, where buoyancy is strongest in the central/southern Plains. Storms are strengthening along and to the east of the central/northern Rockies where both buoyancy and deep-layer are maximized (i.e. 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-50 kts in place), and it is here where isolated severe wind and hail may still be observed. ..Squitieri.. 07/31/2025 Read more

MD 1851 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...much of central into eastern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302304Z - 310130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage into central Wyoming this evening, with locally damaging gusts and area of hail. DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in intensity over north-central WY with hail cores noted, with additional activity across southwest WY recently. The easterly low-level flow regime has maintained a relatively moist air mass into central WY, with MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. Mid and high level winds are not particularly strong, but directional changes with height are resulting in 35-45 kt effective deep-layer shear across the region. As convection accrues over north-central WY, and eventual outflow push south/southeastward is possible, while activity farther south may yield northeast outflow surges. The end result may be colliding boundaries and additional development, with locally severe gusts along with areas of hail. The majority of the activity may remain marginally severe, and therefore a watch may not be needed. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 44220795 44220673 44020561 43480481 42760446 42340441 41790467 41620552 42040659 42190836 42440916 42690936 43400938 43680909 44220795 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 30 23:46:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1851 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...much of central into eastern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302304Z - 310130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage into central Wyoming this evening, with locally damaging gusts and area of hail. DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in intensity over north-central WY with hail cores noted, with additional activity across southwest WY recently. The easterly low-level flow regime has maintained a relatively moist air mass into central WY, with MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. Mid and high level winds are not particularly strong, but directional changes with height are resulting in 35-45 kt effective deep-layer shear across the region. As convection accrues over north-central WY, and eventual outflow push south/southeastward is possible, while activity farther south may yield northeast outflow surges. The end result may be colliding boundaries and additional development, with locally severe gusts along with areas of hail. The majority of the activity may remain marginally severe, and therefore a watch may not be needed. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 44220795 44220673 44020561 43480481 42760446 42340441 41790467 41620552 42040659 42190836 42440916 42690936 43400938 43680909 44220795 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1850 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1850 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0516 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302216Z - 302345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail or severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms that manage to sustain themselves. However, the overall severe threat should remain isolated. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters have developed along a diffuse baroclinic boundary, amid strong buoyancy but weak vertical wind shear. These storms are already demonstrating outflow tendencies, as noted on regional radar imagery and visible satellite. However, this outflow continues to propagate southward within a highly unstable airmass, characterized by over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven primarily by upper 90s/low 70s F surface temperatures/dewpoints. Current thinking is that new updrafts will continue to develop on the leading edge of outflow, with a southward propagation expected. Given weak shear, primary convective mode should be outflow-dominant pulse cellular and multicellular storms. At the height of their intensity, storms may produce a couple instances of severe wind or hail. However, the severe threat should be isolated at best, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37819742 38519554 38409427 37979335 37509318 37189337 37019412 37089521 37079628 37149693 37299743 37819742 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1849 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1849 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Areas affected...Central Wyoming into Southern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302031Z - 302230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of isolated severe hail and severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon into the evening. However, given that widespread severe storms are not expected at this time, the likelihood of weather watch issuance is low. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm have developed across portions of western and central Wyoming this afternoon, in an environment characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE and 45-40 kts of effective deep-layer shear. While there is sufficient shear for some storms to become more intense and organized, the expectation is that any severe storms will largely be isolated and transient in nature. Any organized convection would be capable of 60 MPH wind gusts and any hail is expected to remain below 2.00 inches in size. While the probability of watch issuance is expected to remain low, convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Smith.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 46040868 46070809 45900752 45740717 45530695 45360670 44900637 43780585 42860549 41990549 41380564 41170578 41110590 41060606 41040618 41030646 41040698 41340723 41720767 42000802 42170832 42410867 42810916 43190946 43850975 44510991 44891000 45270998 45530985 45740960 45930918 46040868 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week into the weekend, the subtropical ridge is expected to shift westward over more of the Southwest and amplify over the Rockies by early next week as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft from CA, through the Great Basin, and into the Rockies is expected with this pattern. By mid to late next week the subtropical ridge will generally remain anchored over the Southwest. ...Day 3/Friday... A relatively small area of isolated dry thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending west to east from northern NV into the Snake River Plain and Caribou Range of ID. Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough will also aid in ascent later in the day/evening. Forecast soundings across this region continue to suggest low PWATs atop receptive fuels. ...Day 4/Saturday... An increasing mid-level height gradient between a subtle shortwave trough, traversing the Great Basin, and the subtropical ridge to its south is expected. A very dry and deeply mixed boundary layer below this stronger flow will promote momentum transfer aloft across northern AZ and UT. Only minor adjustments were made to the low probability area for Day 4/Saturday based on the latest extended model and ensemble trends. ...Day 6/Monday... After a slight decrease in wind speeds across the Southwest and Great Basin Day 5/Sunday, an approaching Pacific trough will again result in increasing mid-level flow on the northwestern fringe of the ridge. Very similar to Day 4/Saturday's threat, a low critical probability area has been introduced for central UT and far northwestern AZ since there is very reasonable agreement within the extended solutions and ensembles for this pattern. ..Barnes.. 07/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more