Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Southeast Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, near/east of the Mississippi River around daybreak, potentially including western Tennessee south-southwestward across Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur early in the day, perhaps mainly across Mississippi where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a deep-layer/low-level wind field that will remain strong during the day, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the south-southwest periphery of the early day storms across the ArkLaMiss. Thunderstorms may increase in a northward-expanding trend Friday night across southeast Texas toward the ArkLaMiss, as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail potential cannot be ruled out in the presence of moderate elevated buoyancy and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Southeast Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, near/east of the Mississippi River around daybreak, potentially including western Tennessee south-southwestward across Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur early in the day, perhaps mainly across Mississippi where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a deep-layer/low-level wind field that will remain strong during the day, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the south-southwest periphery of the early day storms across the ArkLaMiss. Thunderstorms may increase in a northward-expanding trend Friday night across southeast Texas toward the ArkLaMiss, as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail potential cannot be ruled out in the presence of moderate elevated buoyancy and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Southeast Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, near/east of the Mississippi River around daybreak, potentially including western Tennessee south-southwestward across Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur early in the day, perhaps mainly across Mississippi where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a deep-layer/low-level wind field that will remain strong during the day, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the south-southwest periphery of the early day storms across the ArkLaMiss. Thunderstorms may increase in a northward-expanding trend Friday night across southeast Texas toward the ArkLaMiss, as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail potential cannot be ruled out in the presence of moderate elevated buoyancy and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Southeast Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, near/east of the Mississippi River around daybreak, potentially including western Tennessee south-southwestward across Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur early in the day, perhaps mainly across Mississippi where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a deep-layer/low-level wind field that will remain strong during the day, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the south-southwest periphery of the early day storms across the ArkLaMiss. Thunderstorms may increase in a northward-expanding trend Friday night across southeast Texas toward the ArkLaMiss, as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail potential cannot be ruled out in the presence of moderate elevated buoyancy and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Southeast Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, near/east of the Mississippi River around daybreak, potentially including western Tennessee south-southwestward across Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur early in the day, perhaps mainly across Mississippi where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a deep-layer/low-level wind field that will remain strong during the day, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the south-southwest periphery of the early day storms across the ArkLaMiss. Thunderstorms may increase in a northward-expanding trend Friday night across southeast Texas toward the ArkLaMiss, as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail potential cannot be ruled out in the presence of moderate elevated buoyancy and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Southeast Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, near/east of the Mississippi River around daybreak, potentially including western Tennessee south-southwestward across Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur early in the day, perhaps mainly across Mississippi where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a deep-layer/low-level wind field that will remain strong during the day, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the south-southwest periphery of the early day storms across the ArkLaMiss. Thunderstorms may increase in a northward-expanding trend Friday night across southeast Texas toward the ArkLaMiss, as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail potential cannot be ruled out in the presence of moderate elevated buoyancy and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

MD 2280 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 713... FOR THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2280 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Areas affected...the Middle TX Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 713... Valid 250738Z - 250915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 713 continues. SUMMARY...Increasing potential for severe gusts is apparent through the pre-dawn hours along the Middle Texas Gulf Coast. DISCUSSION...The deepest convection with the coldest IR cloud tops within WW 713 has been slowly moving eastward across Victoria/Goliad counties over the past hour. Upstream convection may coalesce with this leading slow-moving complex during the next hour or so. This would likely result in an accelerating cool pool towards the coast. Ahead of the cluster, surface dew points remain from 67-70 F and are yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg per modified 00Z CRP sounding and 06Z RAP forecast soundings. The 06Z HRRR is insistent on upscale growth with a potential bowing structure approaching the coast during the next few hours. While severe wind has yet to be reported thus far, the VCT ASOS recently measured 53 mph at 0729Z. The potential exists for gusts of 60-70 mph through 10-11Z. ..Grams.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29099686 29119651 29019610 28749581 28579584 28369625 28259664 28129695 28159718 28339757 28519775 28769773 28919720 29099686 Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N NIR TO 35 W HOU TO 50 ESE UTS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2280. ..GRAMS..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-039-057-071-123-157-167-175-201-239-255-291-321-391- 469-481-250940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN CHAMBERS DEWITT FORT BEND GALVESTON GOLIAD HARRIS JACKSON KARNES LIBERTY MATAGORDA REFUGIO VICTORIA WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-335-350-355-250940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more