Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Mississippi to central Louisiana. A few of these thunderstorms could pose some threat for damaging wind gusts Friday morning, but the line is expected to weaken by mid-day as the associated mid-level trough moves north and heights rise across the remaining warm sector. Farther south and west across Louisiana, the frontal zone will start to lift north as another low-amplitude mid-level trough crosses the southern Plains and becomes negatively tilted. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat could be possible from this activity during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, a stronger trough will dig into the southern Plains Friday night. By this time, greater instability will be in place across Louisiana and additional thunderstorms with isolated severe potential are possible after 06Z as the low-level jet intensifies. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Mississippi to central Louisiana. A few of these thunderstorms could pose some threat for damaging wind gusts Friday morning, but the line is expected to weaken by mid-day as the associated mid-level trough moves north and heights rise across the remaining warm sector. Farther south and west across Louisiana, the frontal zone will start to lift north as another low-amplitude mid-level trough crosses the southern Plains and becomes negatively tilted. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat could be possible from this activity during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, a stronger trough will dig into the southern Plains Friday night. By this time, greater instability will be in place across Louisiana and additional thunderstorms with isolated severe potential are possible after 06Z as the low-level jet intensifies. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Mississippi to central Louisiana. A few of these thunderstorms could pose some threat for damaging wind gusts Friday morning, but the line is expected to weaken by mid-day as the associated mid-level trough moves north and heights rise across the remaining warm sector. Farther south and west across Louisiana, the frontal zone will start to lift north as another low-amplitude mid-level trough crosses the southern Plains and becomes negatively tilted. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat could be possible from this activity during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, a stronger trough will dig into the southern Plains Friday night. By this time, greater instability will be in place across Louisiana and additional thunderstorms with isolated severe potential are possible after 06Z as the low-level jet intensifies. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Mississippi to central Louisiana. A few of these thunderstorms could pose some threat for damaging wind gusts Friday morning, but the line is expected to weaken by mid-day as the associated mid-level trough moves north and heights rise across the remaining warm sector. Farther south and west across Louisiana, the frontal zone will start to lift north as another low-amplitude mid-level trough crosses the southern Plains and becomes negatively tilted. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat could be possible from this activity during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, a stronger trough will dig into the southern Plains Friday night. By this time, greater instability will be in place across Louisiana and additional thunderstorms with isolated severe potential are possible after 06Z as the low-level jet intensifies. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Mississippi to central Louisiana. A few of these thunderstorms could pose some threat for damaging wind gusts Friday morning, but the line is expected to weaken by mid-day as the associated mid-level trough moves north and heights rise across the remaining warm sector. Farther south and west across Louisiana, the frontal zone will start to lift north as another low-amplitude mid-level trough crosses the southern Plains and becomes negatively tilted. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat could be possible from this activity during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, a stronger trough will dig into the southern Plains Friday night. By this time, greater instability will be in place across Louisiana and additional thunderstorms with isolated severe potential are possible after 06Z as the low-level jet intensifies. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from northern Mississippi to central Louisiana. A few of these thunderstorms could pose some threat for damaging wind gusts Friday morning, but the line is expected to weaken by mid-day as the associated mid-level trough moves north and heights rise across the remaining warm sector. Farther south and west across Louisiana, the frontal zone will start to lift north as another low-amplitude mid-level trough crosses the southern Plains and becomes negatively tilted. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a marginal severe threat could be possible from this activity during the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, a stronger trough will dig into the southern Plains Friday night. By this time, greater instability will be in place across Louisiana and additional thunderstorms with isolated severe potential are possible after 06Z as the low-level jet intensifies. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low, initially over the Texas Panhandle at the beginning of the period Thursday will slowly move east and become negatively tilted and more compact as it translates across the southern Plains and ends the period in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface low will strengthen across central Texas and move into Arkansas Thursday evening. As this cyclone intensifies, strengthening surface winds will draw mid 60s dewpoints northward across much of East Texas and Louisiana with low 60s dewpoints possibly into southern Arkansas. ...Central/East Texas to the Arklatex and much of Louisiana... Some showers and a few thunderstorms are possible within the warm air advection regime across East Texas and southern Louisiana Thursday morning. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the severe weather threat somewhat subdued during the morning to early afternoon, but near-surface based parcels and clockwise curving hodographs could support some mini-supercells and an isolated tornado threat. Expect a gradual increase in convective coverage through the day as the low-level jet intensifies ahead of the approaching wave and greater surface based instability develops across southeast Texas. Moderate instability and strong shear will support the potential for supercells with an initial threat for large hail and a greater tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening as the low-level jet intensifies. The HRRR suggests much greater instability and low-level shear across the warm sector Thursday afternoon than the rest of the hi-res guidance. If this solution were to materialize, greater tornado probabilities would likely be warranted, but this appears to be more of an outlier solution at this time. Nonetheless, a favorable supercell environment will exist across east Texas with an increasing tornado threat later in the afternoon and evening. Any mature supercells which can develop during the afternoon amid greater instability and remain discrete into the evening as the low-level jet intensifies could pose a threat for a strong (EF2+ tornado). In addition, expect a squall line to intensify during the evening. Instability will be relatively weak farther north, but could remain sufficient to convectively transport the 50 to 70 knot low-level jet to the surface across parts of southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Pacific Northwest to California Coast... A cold front will move onto the California Coast at the beginning of the period with the potential for some gusty winds. Hodographs will be cyclonically curved ahead of the front, but it appears surface-based instability will be limited until colder air aloft arrives in the wake of the front. Therefore, some thunderstorm threat will exist through the day, but no severe weather is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low, initially over the Texas Panhandle at the beginning of the period Thursday will slowly move east and become negatively tilted and more compact as it translates across the southern Plains and ends the period in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface low will strengthen across central Texas and move into Arkansas Thursday evening. As this cyclone intensifies, strengthening surface winds will draw mid 60s dewpoints northward across much of East Texas and Louisiana with low 60s dewpoints possibly into southern Arkansas. ...Central/East Texas to the Arklatex and much of Louisiana... Some showers and a few thunderstorms are possible within the warm air advection regime across East Texas and southern Louisiana Thursday morning. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the severe weather threat somewhat subdued during the morning to early afternoon, but near-surface based parcels and clockwise curving hodographs could support some mini-supercells and an isolated tornado threat. Expect a gradual increase in convective coverage through the day as the low-level jet intensifies ahead of the approaching wave and greater surface based instability develops across southeast Texas. Moderate instability and strong shear will support the potential for supercells with an initial threat for large hail and a greater tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening as the low-level jet intensifies. The HRRR suggests much greater instability and low-level shear across the warm sector Thursday afternoon than the rest of the hi-res guidance. If this solution were to materialize, greater tornado probabilities would likely be warranted, but this appears to be more of an outlier solution at this time. Nonetheless, a favorable supercell environment will exist across east Texas with an increasing tornado threat later in the afternoon and evening. Any mature supercells which can develop during the afternoon amid greater instability and remain discrete into the evening as the low-level jet intensifies could pose a threat for a strong (EF2+ tornado). In addition, expect a squall line to intensify during the evening. Instability will be relatively weak farther north, but could remain sufficient to convectively transport the 50 to 70 knot low-level jet to the surface across parts of southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Pacific Northwest to California Coast... A cold front will move onto the California Coast at the beginning of the period with the potential for some gusty winds. Hodographs will be cyclonically curved ahead of the front, but it appears surface-based instability will be limited until colder air aloft arrives in the wake of the front. Therefore, some thunderstorm threat will exist through the day, but no severe weather is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low, initially over the Texas Panhandle at the beginning of the period Thursday will slowly move east and become negatively tilted and more compact as it translates across the southern Plains and ends the period in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface low will strengthen across central Texas and move into Arkansas Thursday evening. As this cyclone intensifies, strengthening surface winds will draw mid 60s dewpoints northward across much of East Texas and Louisiana with low 60s dewpoints possibly into southern Arkansas. ...Central/East Texas to the Arklatex and much of Louisiana... Some showers and a few thunderstorms are possible within the warm air advection regime across East Texas and southern Louisiana Thursday morning. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the severe weather threat somewhat subdued during the morning to early afternoon, but near-surface based parcels and clockwise curving hodographs could support some mini-supercells and an isolated tornado threat. Expect a gradual increase in convective coverage through the day as the low-level jet intensifies ahead of the approaching wave and greater surface based instability develops across southeast Texas. Moderate instability and strong shear will support the potential for supercells with an initial threat for large hail and a greater tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening as the low-level jet intensifies. The HRRR suggests much greater instability and low-level shear across the warm sector Thursday afternoon than the rest of the hi-res guidance. If this solution were to materialize, greater tornado probabilities would likely be warranted, but this appears to be more of an outlier solution at this time. Nonetheless, a favorable supercell environment will exist across east Texas with an increasing tornado threat later in the afternoon and evening. Any mature supercells which can develop during the afternoon amid greater instability and remain discrete into the evening as the low-level jet intensifies could pose a threat for a strong (EF2+ tornado). In addition, expect a squall line to intensify during the evening. Instability will be relatively weak farther north, but could remain sufficient to convectively transport the 50 to 70 knot low-level jet to the surface across parts of southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Pacific Northwest to California Coast... A cold front will move onto the California Coast at the beginning of the period with the potential for some gusty winds. Hodographs will be cyclonically curved ahead of the front, but it appears surface-based instability will be limited until colder air aloft arrives in the wake of the front. Therefore, some thunderstorm threat will exist through the day, but no severe weather is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low, initially over the Texas Panhandle at the beginning of the period Thursday will slowly move east and become negatively tilted and more compact as it translates across the southern Plains and ends the period in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface low will strengthen across central Texas and move into Arkansas Thursday evening. As this cyclone intensifies, strengthening surface winds will draw mid 60s dewpoints northward across much of East Texas and Louisiana with low 60s dewpoints possibly into southern Arkansas. ...Central/East Texas to the Arklatex and much of Louisiana... Some showers and a few thunderstorms are possible within the warm air advection regime across East Texas and southern Louisiana Thursday morning. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the severe weather threat somewhat subdued during the morning to early afternoon, but near-surface based parcels and clockwise curving hodographs could support some mini-supercells and an isolated tornado threat. Expect a gradual increase in convective coverage through the day as the low-level jet intensifies ahead of the approaching wave and greater surface based instability develops across southeast Texas. Moderate instability and strong shear will support the potential for supercells with an initial threat for large hail and a greater tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening as the low-level jet intensifies. The HRRR suggests much greater instability and low-level shear across the warm sector Thursday afternoon than the rest of the hi-res guidance. If this solution were to materialize, greater tornado probabilities would likely be warranted, but this appears to be more of an outlier solution at this time. Nonetheless, a favorable supercell environment will exist across east Texas with an increasing tornado threat later in the afternoon and evening. Any mature supercells which can develop during the afternoon amid greater instability and remain discrete into the evening as the low-level jet intensifies could pose a threat for a strong (EF2+ tornado). In addition, expect a squall line to intensify during the evening. Instability will be relatively weak farther north, but could remain sufficient to convectively transport the 50 to 70 knot low-level jet to the surface across parts of southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Pacific Northwest to California Coast... A cold front will move onto the California Coast at the beginning of the period with the potential for some gusty winds. Hodographs will be cyclonically curved ahead of the front, but it appears surface-based instability will be limited until colder air aloft arrives in the wake of the front. Therefore, some thunderstorm threat will exist through the day, but no severe weather is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low, initially over the Texas Panhandle at the beginning of the period Thursday will slowly move east and become negatively tilted and more compact as it translates across the southern Plains and ends the period in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface low will strengthen across central Texas and move into Arkansas Thursday evening. As this cyclone intensifies, strengthening surface winds will draw mid 60s dewpoints northward across much of East Texas and Louisiana with low 60s dewpoints possibly into southern Arkansas. ...Central/East Texas to the Arklatex and much of Louisiana... Some showers and a few thunderstorms are possible within the warm air advection regime across East Texas and southern Louisiana Thursday morning. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the severe weather threat somewhat subdued during the morning to early afternoon, but near-surface based parcels and clockwise curving hodographs could support some mini-supercells and an isolated tornado threat. Expect a gradual increase in convective coverage through the day as the low-level jet intensifies ahead of the approaching wave and greater surface based instability develops across southeast Texas. Moderate instability and strong shear will support the potential for supercells with an initial threat for large hail and a greater tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening as the low-level jet intensifies. The HRRR suggests much greater instability and low-level shear across the warm sector Thursday afternoon than the rest of the hi-res guidance. If this solution were to materialize, greater tornado probabilities would likely be warranted, but this appears to be more of an outlier solution at this time. Nonetheless, a favorable supercell environment will exist across east Texas with an increasing tornado threat later in the afternoon and evening. Any mature supercells which can develop during the afternoon amid greater instability and remain discrete into the evening as the low-level jet intensifies could pose a threat for a strong (EF2+ tornado). In addition, expect a squall line to intensify during the evening. Instability will be relatively weak farther north, but could remain sufficient to convectively transport the 50 to 70 knot low-level jet to the surface across parts of southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Pacific Northwest to California Coast... A cold front will move onto the California Coast at the beginning of the period with the potential for some gusty winds. Hodographs will be cyclonically curved ahead of the front, but it appears surface-based instability will be limited until colder air aloft arrives in the wake of the front. Therefore, some thunderstorm threat will exist through the day, but no severe weather is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low, initially over the Texas Panhandle at the beginning of the period Thursday will slowly move east and become negatively tilted and more compact as it translates across the southern Plains and ends the period in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface low will strengthen across central Texas and move into Arkansas Thursday evening. As this cyclone intensifies, strengthening surface winds will draw mid 60s dewpoints northward across much of East Texas and Louisiana with low 60s dewpoints possibly into southern Arkansas. ...Central/East Texas to the Arklatex and much of Louisiana... Some showers and a few thunderstorms are possible within the warm air advection regime across East Texas and southern Louisiana Thursday morning. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the severe weather threat somewhat subdued during the morning to early afternoon, but near-surface based parcels and clockwise curving hodographs could support some mini-supercells and an isolated tornado threat. Expect a gradual increase in convective coverage through the day as the low-level jet intensifies ahead of the approaching wave and greater surface based instability develops across southeast Texas. Moderate instability and strong shear will support the potential for supercells with an initial threat for large hail and a greater tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening as the low-level jet intensifies. The HRRR suggests much greater instability and low-level shear across the warm sector Thursday afternoon than the rest of the hi-res guidance. If this solution were to materialize, greater tornado probabilities would likely be warranted, but this appears to be more of an outlier solution at this time. Nonetheless, a favorable supercell environment will exist across east Texas with an increasing tornado threat later in the afternoon and evening. Any mature supercells which can develop during the afternoon amid greater instability and remain discrete into the evening as the low-level jet intensifies could pose a threat for a strong (EF2+ tornado). In addition, expect a squall line to intensify during the evening. Instability will be relatively weak farther north, but could remain sufficient to convectively transport the 50 to 70 knot low-level jet to the surface across parts of southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Pacific Northwest to California Coast... A cold front will move onto the California Coast at the beginning of the period with the potential for some gusty winds. Hodographs will be cyclonically curved ahead of the front, but it appears surface-based instability will be limited until colder air aloft arrives in the wake of the front. Therefore, some thunderstorm threat will exist through the day, but no severe weather is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low, initially over the Texas Panhandle at the beginning of the period Thursday will slowly move east and become negatively tilted and more compact as it translates across the southern Plains and ends the period in the mid-Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a surface low will strengthen across central Texas and move into Arkansas Thursday evening. As this cyclone intensifies, strengthening surface winds will draw mid 60s dewpoints northward across much of East Texas and Louisiana with low 60s dewpoints possibly into southern Arkansas. ...Central/East Texas to the Arklatex and much of Louisiana... Some showers and a few thunderstorms are possible within the warm air advection regime across East Texas and southern Louisiana Thursday morning. Relatively weak lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the severe weather threat somewhat subdued during the morning to early afternoon, but near-surface based parcels and clockwise curving hodographs could support some mini-supercells and an isolated tornado threat. Expect a gradual increase in convective coverage through the day as the low-level jet intensifies ahead of the approaching wave and greater surface based instability develops across southeast Texas. Moderate instability and strong shear will support the potential for supercells with an initial threat for large hail and a greater tornado threat during the late afternoon and evening as the low-level jet intensifies. The HRRR suggests much greater instability and low-level shear across the warm sector Thursday afternoon than the rest of the hi-res guidance. If this solution were to materialize, greater tornado probabilities would likely be warranted, but this appears to be more of an outlier solution at this time. Nonetheless, a favorable supercell environment will exist across east Texas with an increasing tornado threat later in the afternoon and evening. Any mature supercells which can develop during the afternoon amid greater instability and remain discrete into the evening as the low-level jet intensifies could pose a threat for a strong (EF2+ tornado). In addition, expect a squall line to intensify during the evening. Instability will be relatively weak farther north, but could remain sufficient to convectively transport the 50 to 70 knot low-level jet to the surface across parts of southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana Thursday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Pacific Northwest to California Coast... A cold front will move onto the California Coast at the beginning of the period with the potential for some gusty winds. Hodographs will be cyclonically curved ahead of the front, but it appears surface-based instability will be limited until colder air aloft arrives in the wake of the front. Therefore, some thunderstorm threat will exist through the day, but no severe weather is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. ..Hart/Supinie.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. ..Hart/Supinie.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. ..Hart/Supinie.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. ..Hart/Supinie.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. ..Hart/Supinie.. 12/25/2024 Read more