Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Cyclonically curved westerlies will feature multiple mid-level disturbances influencing the region on Friday, including one shortwave trough that will quickly spread northeastward away from the region early Friday, with a more glancing influence by a secondary impulse later in the day. Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, potentially from western/Middle Tennessee south-southwestward across eastern/southern Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur/linger early in the day across parts of Mississippi, where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a residually strong deep-layer/low-level wind field, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the southern periphery of the early day storms across Mississippi and possibly into nearby Louisiana/Alabama. Overall instability should remain relatively weak, but sufficient moisture/buoyancy in the presence of 35-40 kt of effective shear could potentially allow for a few weak/transient supercells in the afternoon. A couple of locally severe storms could occur. Thunderstorms may otherwise increase in a northward-expanding trend late Friday night, potentially near the upper Texas coast and more so across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. This will be as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail cannot be entirely ruled out in the presence of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Cyclonically curved westerlies will feature multiple mid-level disturbances influencing the region on Friday, including one shortwave trough that will quickly spread northeastward away from the region early Friday, with a more glancing influence by a secondary impulse later in the day. Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, potentially from western/Middle Tennessee south-southwestward across eastern/southern Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur/linger early in the day across parts of Mississippi, where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a residually strong deep-layer/low-level wind field, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the southern periphery of the early day storms across Mississippi and possibly into nearby Louisiana/Alabama. Overall instability should remain relatively weak, but sufficient moisture/buoyancy in the presence of 35-40 kt of effective shear could potentially allow for a few weak/transient supercells in the afternoon. A couple of locally severe storms could occur. Thunderstorms may otherwise increase in a northward-expanding trend late Friday night, potentially near the upper Texas coast and more so across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. This will be as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail cannot be entirely ruled out in the presence of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Cyclonically curved westerlies will feature multiple mid-level disturbances influencing the region on Friday, including one shortwave trough that will quickly spread northeastward away from the region early Friday, with a more glancing influence by a secondary impulse later in the day. Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, potentially from western/Middle Tennessee south-southwestward across eastern/southern Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur/linger early in the day across parts of Mississippi, where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a residually strong deep-layer/low-level wind field, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the southern periphery of the early day storms across Mississippi and possibly into nearby Louisiana/Alabama. Overall instability should remain relatively weak, but sufficient moisture/buoyancy in the presence of 35-40 kt of effective shear could potentially allow for a few weak/transient supercells in the afternoon. A couple of locally severe storms could occur. Thunderstorms may otherwise increase in a northward-expanding trend late Friday night, potentially near the upper Texas coast and more so across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. This will be as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail cannot be entirely ruled out in the presence of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a potential for isolated large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across central Texas today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will move through northeast Texas, as a cold front advances eastward across central Texas this afternoon. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will return northward into east Texas, with surface dewpoints reaching the mid 60s F across most of southeast Texas extending eastward into southern and central Louisiana. As the front advances eastward, convective initiation is expected around midday along the I-35 corridor from near Austin to Waco. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand quickly across the moist airmass in east Texas by mid afternoon. MCS development will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. A line of storms is expected to move eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. Extensive cloud cover is forecast over much of the warm sector today, which will likely limit surface heating. MLCAPE is forecast to peak from near 1500 J/kg in the Houston area to near 1000 J/kg in northeast Texas. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in the afternoon ahead of the front in much of east Texas have moderate to strong deep-layer shear suggesting supercells will be possible with storms that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will be capable of producing isolated large hail and severe gusts. Concerning the tornado threat, the best area could be near Houston in the late afternoon, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 300 m2/s2. However, forecast soundings have surface winds veering to the south-southwest somewhat early, suggesting the window for tornadoes could be brief. Model solutions suggest that a line of storms will organize by late afternoon, with the line moving eastward from far east Texas into southern Arkansas and Louisiana during the evening. This line should be associated with a potential for severe gusts, a few tornadoes and hail. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a potential for isolated large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across central Texas today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will move through northeast Texas, as a cold front advances eastward across central Texas this afternoon. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will return northward into east Texas, with surface dewpoints reaching the mid 60s F across most of southeast Texas extending eastward into southern and central Louisiana. As the front advances eastward, convective initiation is expected around midday along the I-35 corridor from near Austin to Waco. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand quickly across the moist airmass in east Texas by mid afternoon. MCS development will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. A line of storms is expected to move eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. Extensive cloud cover is forecast over much of the warm sector today, which will likely limit surface heating. MLCAPE is forecast to peak from near 1500 J/kg in the Houston area to near 1000 J/kg in northeast Texas. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in the afternoon ahead of the front in much of east Texas have moderate to strong deep-layer shear suggesting supercells will be possible with storms that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will be capable of producing isolated large hail and severe gusts. Concerning the tornado threat, the best area could be near Houston in the late afternoon, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 300 m2/s2. However, forecast soundings have surface winds veering to the south-southwest somewhat early, suggesting the window for tornadoes could be brief. Model solutions suggest that a line of storms will organize by late afternoon, with the line moving eastward from far east Texas into southern Arkansas and Louisiana during the evening. This line should be associated with a potential for severe gusts, a few tornadoes and hail. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a potential for isolated large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across central Texas today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will move through northeast Texas, as a cold front advances eastward across central Texas this afternoon. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will return northward into east Texas, with surface dewpoints reaching the mid 60s F across most of southeast Texas extending eastward into southern and central Louisiana. As the front advances eastward, convective initiation is expected around midday along the I-35 corridor from near Austin to Waco. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand quickly across the moist airmass in east Texas by mid afternoon. MCS development will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. A line of storms is expected to move eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. Extensive cloud cover is forecast over much of the warm sector today, which will likely limit surface heating. MLCAPE is forecast to peak from near 1500 J/kg in the Houston area to near 1000 J/kg in northeast Texas. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in the afternoon ahead of the front in much of east Texas have moderate to strong deep-layer shear suggesting supercells will be possible with storms that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will be capable of producing isolated large hail and severe gusts. Concerning the tornado threat, the best area could be near Houston in the late afternoon, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 300 m2/s2. However, forecast soundings have surface winds veering to the south-southwest somewhat early, suggesting the window for tornadoes could be brief. Model solutions suggest that a line of storms will organize by late afternoon, with the line moving eastward from far east Texas into southern Arkansas and Louisiana during the evening. This line should be associated with a potential for severe gusts, a few tornadoes and hail. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a potential for isolated large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across central Texas today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will move through northeast Texas, as a cold front advances eastward across central Texas this afternoon. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will return northward into east Texas, with surface dewpoints reaching the mid 60s F across most of southeast Texas extending eastward into southern and central Louisiana. As the front advances eastward, convective initiation is expected around midday along the I-35 corridor from near Austin to Waco. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand quickly across the moist airmass in east Texas by mid afternoon. MCS development will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. A line of storms is expected to move eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. Extensive cloud cover is forecast over much of the warm sector today, which will likely limit surface heating. MLCAPE is forecast to peak from near 1500 J/kg in the Houston area to near 1000 J/kg in northeast Texas. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in the afternoon ahead of the front in much of east Texas have moderate to strong deep-layer shear suggesting supercells will be possible with storms that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will be capable of producing isolated large hail and severe gusts. Concerning the tornado threat, the best area could be near Houston in the late afternoon, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 300 m2/s2. However, forecast soundings have surface winds veering to the south-southwest somewhat early, suggesting the window for tornadoes could be brief. Model solutions suggest that a line of storms will organize by late afternoon, with the line moving eastward from far east Texas into southern Arkansas and Louisiana during the evening. This line should be associated with a potential for severe gusts, a few tornadoes and hail. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a potential for isolated large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across central Texas today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will move through northeast Texas, as a cold front advances eastward across central Texas this afternoon. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will return northward into east Texas, with surface dewpoints reaching the mid 60s F across most of southeast Texas extending eastward into southern and central Louisiana. As the front advances eastward, convective initiation is expected around midday along the I-35 corridor from near Austin to Waco. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand quickly across the moist airmass in east Texas by mid afternoon. MCS development will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. A line of storms is expected to move eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. Extensive cloud cover is forecast over much of the warm sector today, which will likely limit surface heating. MLCAPE is forecast to peak from near 1500 J/kg in the Houston area to near 1000 J/kg in northeast Texas. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in the afternoon ahead of the front in much of east Texas have moderate to strong deep-layer shear suggesting supercells will be possible with storms that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will be capable of producing isolated large hail and severe gusts. Concerning the tornado threat, the best area could be near Houston in the late afternoon, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 300 m2/s2. However, forecast soundings have surface winds veering to the south-southwest somewhat early, suggesting the window for tornadoes could be brief. Model solutions suggest that a line of storms will organize by late afternoon, with the line moving eastward from far east Texas into southern Arkansas and Louisiana during the evening. This line should be associated with a potential for severe gusts, a few tornadoes and hail. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a potential for isolated large hail, wind damage, and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across central Texas today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will move through northeast Texas, as a cold front advances eastward across central Texas this afternoon. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will return northward into east Texas, with surface dewpoints reaching the mid 60s F across most of southeast Texas extending eastward into southern and central Louisiana. As the front advances eastward, convective initiation is expected around midday along the I-35 corridor from near Austin to Waco. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand quickly across the moist airmass in east Texas by mid afternoon. MCS development will be possible from late afternoon into the evening. A line of storms is expected to move eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. Extensive cloud cover is forecast over much of the warm sector today, which will likely limit surface heating. MLCAPE is forecast to peak from near 1500 J/kg in the Houston area to near 1000 J/kg in northeast Texas. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in the afternoon ahead of the front in much of east Texas have moderate to strong deep-layer shear suggesting supercells will be possible with storms that remain semi-discrete. Supercells will be capable of producing isolated large hail and severe gusts. Concerning the tornado threat, the best area could be near Houston in the late afternoon, where 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 300 m2/s2. However, forecast soundings have surface winds veering to the south-southwest somewhat early, suggesting the window for tornadoes could be brief. Model solutions suggest that a line of storms will organize by late afternoon, with the line moving eastward from far east Texas into southern Arkansas and Louisiana during the evening. This line should be associated with a potential for severe gusts, a few tornadoes and hail. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ..Weinman.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ..Weinman.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ..Weinman.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ..Weinman.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ..Weinman.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central High Plains into the Southeast, and along parts of the West Coast. No severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the southern and central High Plains. Further to the east, a shortwave trough is located in the lower Mississippi Valley. A few thunderstorms may develop in a moist airmass ahead of the trough this evening. A third shortwave trough is located in the eastern Pacific. As this trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Coast tonight, isolated lightning strikes may occur across western Washington, western Oregon and in far northwestern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Thursday. ..Broyles.. 12/26/2024 Read more