Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance over the northwest Gulf Coast while another upstream and more potent shortwave trough is located over UT/AZ. The Gulf Coast disturbance will weaken during the day as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast. Limited low-level mass response is forecast across southern LA due in part to relatively cool/stable conditions via a slow-to-erode surface ridge initially located over the central Gulf Coast. The maritime boundary over the northern Gulf is only expected to reach the near-shore waters. The airmass north of the maritime front was sampled by the 12 UTC Lake Charles observed sounding (near zero surface-based CAPE), and this expected lack of appreciable airmass modification/destabilization during the day will limit storm intensity. The ongoing convective band over southwest LA this morning will likely continue east through midday and reach south-central LA, with a few elevated thunderstorms moving inland from the Gulf. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance over the northwest Gulf Coast while another upstream and more potent shortwave trough is located over UT/AZ. The Gulf Coast disturbance will weaken during the day as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast. Limited low-level mass response is forecast across southern LA due in part to relatively cool/stable conditions via a slow-to-erode surface ridge initially located over the central Gulf Coast. The maritime boundary over the northern Gulf is only expected to reach the near-shore waters. The airmass north of the maritime front was sampled by the 12 UTC Lake Charles observed sounding (near zero surface-based CAPE), and this expected lack of appreciable airmass modification/destabilization during the day will limit storm intensity. The ongoing convective band over southwest LA this morning will likely continue east through midday and reach south-central LA, with a few elevated thunderstorms moving inland from the Gulf. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance over the northwest Gulf Coast while another upstream and more potent shortwave trough is located over UT/AZ. The Gulf Coast disturbance will weaken during the day as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast. Limited low-level mass response is forecast across southern LA due in part to relatively cool/stable conditions via a slow-to-erode surface ridge initially located over the central Gulf Coast. The maritime boundary over the northern Gulf is only expected to reach the near-shore waters. The airmass north of the maritime front was sampled by the 12 UTC Lake Charles observed sounding (near zero surface-based CAPE), and this expected lack of appreciable airmass modification/destabilization during the day will limit storm intensity. The ongoing convective band over southwest LA this morning will likely continue east through midday and reach south-central LA, with a few elevated thunderstorms moving inland from the Gulf. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance over the northwest Gulf Coast while another upstream and more potent shortwave trough is located over UT/AZ. The Gulf Coast disturbance will weaken during the day as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast. Limited low-level mass response is forecast across southern LA due in part to relatively cool/stable conditions via a slow-to-erode surface ridge initially located over the central Gulf Coast. The maritime boundary over the northern Gulf is only expected to reach the near-shore waters. The airmass north of the maritime front was sampled by the 12 UTC Lake Charles observed sounding (near zero surface-based CAPE), and this expected lack of appreciable airmass modification/destabilization during the day will limit storm intensity. The ongoing convective band over southwest LA this morning will likely continue east through midday and reach south-central LA, with a few elevated thunderstorms moving inland from the Gulf. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance over the northwest Gulf Coast while another upstream and more potent shortwave trough is located over UT/AZ. The Gulf Coast disturbance will weaken during the day as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast. Limited low-level mass response is forecast across southern LA due in part to relatively cool/stable conditions via a slow-to-erode surface ridge initially located over the central Gulf Coast. The maritime boundary over the northern Gulf is only expected to reach the near-shore waters. The airmass north of the maritime front was sampled by the 12 UTC Lake Charles observed sounding (near zero surface-based CAPE), and this expected lack of appreciable airmass modification/destabilization during the day will limit storm intensity. The ongoing convective band over southwest LA this morning will likely continue east through midday and reach south-central LA, with a few elevated thunderstorms moving inland from the Gulf. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance over the northwest Gulf Coast while another upstream and more potent shortwave trough is located over UT/AZ. The Gulf Coast disturbance will weaken during the day as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast. Limited low-level mass response is forecast across southern LA due in part to relatively cool/stable conditions via a slow-to-erode surface ridge initially located over the central Gulf Coast. The maritime boundary over the northern Gulf is only expected to reach the near-shore waters. The airmass north of the maritime front was sampled by the 12 UTC Lake Charles observed sounding (near zero surface-based CAPE), and this expected lack of appreciable airmass modification/destabilization during the day will limit storm intensity. The ongoing convective band over southwest LA this morning will likely continue east through midday and reach south-central LA, with a few elevated thunderstorms moving inland from the Gulf. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/25/2024 Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE NIR TO 15 SE VCT TO 20 E PSX. WW 713 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 251200Z. ..GRAMS..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-057-391-251200- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS CALHOUN REFUGIO GMZ236-237-255-330-350-251200- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM MATAGORDA BAY Read more

WW 713 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 250530Z - 251200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 713 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central and Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1130 PM until 600 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread slowly east-southeastward across the middle/upper TX Coast through early Christmas morning. The strongest convection will be capable of producing large hail generally around 1-1.5 inches in diameter, along with severe/damaging winds up to 55-65 mph. A brief tornado remains possible with any persistent supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Victoria TX to 40 miles north of Galveston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 712... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 28020. ...Gleason Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected this weekend including Saturday/Day 4 and possibly Sunday/Day 5. On Saturday/Day 4, the next in a series of shortwave troughs is expected to shift eastward over the southern Plains and Ozarks. Given the influence of the upper-level system and proximity of low-level moisture, at least some severe risk appears likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley, including parts of Louisiana to Mississippi and Alabama. However, the short periodicity in the wake of the prior shortwave trough, plus the possibility of extensive early day precipitation, currently limits confidence in placement of a 15+ percent severe risk area, although Slight Risk-caliber potential may become more evident in future outlooks. The severe-storm risk should shift eastward across the Southeast States on Sunday/Day 5, but probably on a more isolated/marginal basis. Severe storm potential should be relatively low early next week into Days 6-8 Monday-Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected this weekend including Saturday/Day 4 and possibly Sunday/Day 5. On Saturday/Day 4, the next in a series of shortwave troughs is expected to shift eastward over the southern Plains and Ozarks. Given the influence of the upper-level system and proximity of low-level moisture, at least some severe risk appears likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley, including parts of Louisiana to Mississippi and Alabama. However, the short periodicity in the wake of the prior shortwave trough, plus the possibility of extensive early day precipitation, currently limits confidence in placement of a 15+ percent severe risk area, although Slight Risk-caliber potential may become more evident in future outlooks. The severe-storm risk should shift eastward across the Southeast States on Sunday/Day 5, but probably on a more isolated/marginal basis. Severe storm potential should be relatively low early next week into Days 6-8 Monday-Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected this weekend including Saturday/Day 4 and possibly Sunday/Day 5. On Saturday/Day 4, the next in a series of shortwave troughs is expected to shift eastward over the southern Plains and Ozarks. Given the influence of the upper-level system and proximity of low-level moisture, at least some severe risk appears likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley, including parts of Louisiana to Mississippi and Alabama. However, the short periodicity in the wake of the prior shortwave trough, plus the possibility of extensive early day precipitation, currently limits confidence in placement of a 15+ percent severe risk area, although Slight Risk-caliber potential may become more evident in future outlooks. The severe-storm risk should shift eastward across the Southeast States on Sunday/Day 5, but probably on a more isolated/marginal basis. Severe storm potential should be relatively low early next week into Days 6-8 Monday-Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected this weekend including Saturday/Day 4 and possibly Sunday/Day 5. On Saturday/Day 4, the next in a series of shortwave troughs is expected to shift eastward over the southern Plains and Ozarks. Given the influence of the upper-level system and proximity of low-level moisture, at least some severe risk appears likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley, including parts of Louisiana to Mississippi and Alabama. However, the short periodicity in the wake of the prior shortwave trough, plus the possibility of extensive early day precipitation, currently limits confidence in placement of a 15+ percent severe risk area, although Slight Risk-caliber potential may become more evident in future outlooks. The severe-storm risk should shift eastward across the Southeast States on Sunday/Day 5, but probably on a more isolated/marginal basis. Severe storm potential should be relatively low early next week into Days 6-8 Monday-Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected this weekend including Saturday/Day 4 and possibly Sunday/Day 5. On Saturday/Day 4, the next in a series of shortwave troughs is expected to shift eastward over the southern Plains and Ozarks. Given the influence of the upper-level system and proximity of low-level moisture, at least some severe risk appears likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley, including parts of Louisiana to Mississippi and Alabama. However, the short periodicity in the wake of the prior shortwave trough, plus the possibility of extensive early day precipitation, currently limits confidence in placement of a 15+ percent severe risk area, although Slight Risk-caliber potential may become more evident in future outlooks. The severe-storm risk should shift eastward across the Southeast States on Sunday/Day 5, but probably on a more isolated/marginal basis. Severe storm potential should be relatively low early next week into Days 6-8 Monday-Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather potential is expected this weekend including Saturday/Day 4 and possibly Sunday/Day 5. On Saturday/Day 4, the next in a series of shortwave troughs is expected to shift eastward over the southern Plains and Ozarks. Given the influence of the upper-level system and proximity of low-level moisture, at least some severe risk appears likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley, including parts of Louisiana to Mississippi and Alabama. However, the short periodicity in the wake of the prior shortwave trough, plus the possibility of extensive early day precipitation, currently limits confidence in placement of a 15+ percent severe risk area, although Slight Risk-caliber potential may become more evident in future outlooks. The severe-storm risk should shift eastward across the Southeast States on Sunday/Day 5, but probably on a more isolated/marginal basis. Severe storm potential should be relatively low early next week into Days 6-8 Monday-Wednesday. Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE NIR TO 20 E LBX. ..GRAMS..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-057-175-239-321-391-469-251040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN GOLIAD JACKSON MATAGORDA REFUGIO VICTORIA GMZ236-237-255-330-350-251040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM MATAGORDA BAY Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Southeast Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, near/east of the Mississippi River around daybreak, potentially including western Tennessee south-southwestward across Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur early in the day, perhaps mainly across Mississippi where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a deep-layer/low-level wind field that will remain strong during the day, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the south-southwest periphery of the early day storms across the ArkLaMiss. Thunderstorms may increase in a northward-expanding trend Friday night across southeast Texas toward the ArkLaMiss, as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail potential cannot be ruled out in the presence of moderate elevated buoyancy and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Southeast Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley... Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, near/east of the Mississippi River around daybreak, potentially including western Tennessee south-southwestward across Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur early in the day, perhaps mainly across Mississippi where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a deep-layer/low-level wind field that will remain strong during the day, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the south-southwest periphery of the early day storms across the ArkLaMiss. Thunderstorms may increase in a northward-expanding trend Friday night across southeast Texas toward the ArkLaMiss, as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail potential cannot be ruled out in the presence of moderate elevated buoyancy and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more