Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass becoming established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization where clouds/convection persist. Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes, potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+). Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity overnight. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

MD 2279 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... FOR TX COASTAL PLAIN INTO SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2279 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Areas affected...TX Coastal Plain into Southeast TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712... Valid 250502Z - 250700Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated hail remains possible across much of the region. Some additional severe potential possible over the Middle Texas Coast and another watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Complex convective evolution is underway from the TX Hill Country into Southeast TX as thunderstorms along the front begin to interact with prefrontal cellular/supercellular development. This interaction will likely lead to gradually diminishing storm strength across much of the region over the next hour or two. Until then, cellular prefrontal development across much of the region will likely remain strong to occasionally severe, supported by steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear. The only exception is from Karnes/Dewitt Counties northeastward into Fayette County, where the strongest storms are currently ongoing. Here, downstream buoyancy may be high enough for storms to maintain surface-based character as the frontal interaction occurs, leading to upscale growth and a progressive convective line. Increasing large-scale ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough could contribute to this evolution as well. The resulting convective line would likely push southeastward to the Middle TX Coast with an attendant threat for damaging gusts and isolated hail. Given this potential, a downstream watch may be needed shortly. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29089526 28139647 27779736 27889779 29019816 30119763 31049618 31529462 31199385 30359412 29089526 Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-015-025-039-057-071-089-123-157-167-175-201-239-255-285- 291-321-339-391-469-473-481-250740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS AUSTIN BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN CHAMBERS COLORADO DEWITT FORT BEND GALVESTON GOLIAD HARRIS JACKSON KARNES LAVACA LIBERTY MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY REFUGIO VICTORIA WALLER WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-335-350-355-250740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0713 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 2278 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/southeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712... Valid 250249Z - 250415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail remains the primary concern across the southern portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 through at least 04Z. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows ongoing semi-discrete supercells tracking slowly east-southeastward along the pre-frontal confluence zone in central/southeast TX. The EWX VWP continues to sample around 35-40 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented mostly perpendicular to the low-level zone of ascent. This, combined with favorable buoyancy/steep midlevel lapse rates (see CRP 00Z sounding), will support the maintenance of these semi-discrete supercells. The primary risk with these storms continues to be large hail (generally up to 1.75 inches), though an isolated 2 inch hailstone cannot be ruled out. As midlevel height falls/large-scale ascent continues overspreading this activity ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough, storms may tend to grow upscale into a line, generally reducing the hail threat. Locally damaging gusts will still be possible, though increasing nocturnal static stability may lessen the threat to some extent. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX... LAT...LON 29219800 30499682 30539654 30259628 29749651 28949730 28939763 29029791 29219800 Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS TO 40 NW LFK TO 50 SSW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285-287- 291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS TO 40 NW LFK TO 50 SSW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285-287- 291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more