Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially in the southern High Plains will pivot through the southern Plains and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley while becoming negatively tilted on Thursday. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of a modestly deep surface trough in parts of central into East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity. A compact mid-level jet max and ascent will be favorably timed for organized storm development by mid afternoon. This activity should continue into the evening in to parts of western Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. ...Parts of central/East Texas into western Louisiana... Ongoing precipitation near the I-35 corridor is expected early in the period. This will have some impact on the exact timing/location of greater destabilization by the afternoon. Forecast guidance suggests that the most robust convection will occur by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 45-55 kts will promote organized storm structures. Convection in portions of North/Northeast Texas has a higher probability of being linear given the stronger forcing for ascent, though embedded supercells may occur. A more discrete mode is possible in East Texas with stronger shear within the mid-level jet core that will be less parallel to the surface trough. The low-level jet is expected to increase as it translates eastward allowing the tornado threat to continue into early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will likely be the primary hazards, though mid-level lapse rates/temperatures on the western flank of the warm sector would support a large hail threat with discrete convection. The eastward extent of the severe threat will be limited by decreasing moisture/mid-level lapse rates eventually. With low to mid 60s F dewpoints continuing to push northward, destabilization will continue into the evening in parts western/central Louisiana. Should convection maintain organization, as suggested by the latest ECMWF, risk could extend farther east than previously thought. The Slight risk has been extended eastward to account for this potential. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially in the southern High Plains will pivot through the southern Plains and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley while becoming negatively tilted on Thursday. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of a modestly deep surface trough in parts of central into East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity. A compact mid-level jet max and ascent will be favorably timed for organized storm development by mid afternoon. This activity should continue into the evening in to parts of western Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. ...Parts of central/East Texas into western Louisiana... Ongoing precipitation near the I-35 corridor is expected early in the period. This will have some impact on the exact timing/location of greater destabilization by the afternoon. Forecast guidance suggests that the most robust convection will occur by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 45-55 kts will promote organized storm structures. Convection in portions of North/Northeast Texas has a higher probability of being linear given the stronger forcing for ascent, though embedded supercells may occur. A more discrete mode is possible in East Texas with stronger shear within the mid-level jet core that will be less parallel to the surface trough. The low-level jet is expected to increase as it translates eastward allowing the tornado threat to continue into early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will likely be the primary hazards, though mid-level lapse rates/temperatures on the western flank of the warm sector would support a large hail threat with discrete convection. The eastward extent of the severe threat will be limited by decreasing moisture/mid-level lapse rates eventually. With low to mid 60s F dewpoints continuing to push northward, destabilization will continue into the evening in parts western/central Louisiana. Should convection maintain organization, as suggested by the latest ECMWF, risk could extend farther east than previously thought. The Slight risk has been extended eastward to account for this potential. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough accompanied by strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central/southern High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions will develop across portions of southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. However, these conditions should be too localized/marginal for an appreciable fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 23 22:23:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 23 22:23:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will result in several mid-level troughs traversing the CONUS this week into early next week. Several instances of surface lee troughing/cyclone development are likely across the central CONUS as surface high pressure dominates the East Coast and much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. Cool conditions in the northern CONUS, as well as appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and east of the central Plains (to the East Coast) should limit significant wildfire spread concerns over most locales. Occasionally dry and/or breezy conditions may occur over the High Plains by afternoon peak heating on several days given the anticipated frequency of surface lee trough/cyclone development over the central U.S. However, overlapping dry low-level air, stronger surface winds, and receptive fuels, should be too localized or brief to support significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will result in several mid-level troughs traversing the CONUS this week into early next week. Several instances of surface lee troughing/cyclone development are likely across the central CONUS as surface high pressure dominates the East Coast and much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. Cool conditions in the northern CONUS, as well as appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and east of the central Plains (to the East Coast) should limit significant wildfire spread concerns over most locales. Occasionally dry and/or breezy conditions may occur over the High Plains by afternoon peak heating on several days given the anticipated frequency of surface lee trough/cyclone development over the central U.S. However, overlapping dry low-level air, stronger surface winds, and receptive fuels, should be too localized or brief to support significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will result in several mid-level troughs traversing the CONUS this week into early next week. Several instances of surface lee troughing/cyclone development are likely across the central CONUS as surface high pressure dominates the East Coast and much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. Cool conditions in the northern CONUS, as well as appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and east of the central Plains (to the East Coast) should limit significant wildfire spread concerns over most locales. Occasionally dry and/or breezy conditions may occur over the High Plains by afternoon peak heating on several days given the anticipated frequency of surface lee trough/cyclone development over the central U.S. However, overlapping dry low-level air, stronger surface winds, and receptive fuels, should be too localized or brief to support significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will result in several mid-level troughs traversing the CONUS this week into early next week. Several instances of surface lee troughing/cyclone development are likely across the central CONUS as surface high pressure dominates the East Coast and much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. Cool conditions in the northern CONUS, as well as appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and east of the central Plains (to the East Coast) should limit significant wildfire spread concerns over most locales. Occasionally dry and/or breezy conditions may occur over the High Plains by afternoon peak heating on several days given the anticipated frequency of surface lee trough/cyclone development over the central U.S. However, overlapping dry low-level air, stronger surface winds, and receptive fuels, should be too localized or brief to support significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast for the southern Plains, based on recent CAM guidance. Please see previous discussion for more details. ..Hart.. 12/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A modifying air mass is returning northward into TX from the western Gulf basin, and continued low-level warming/moistening will result in gradual destabilization. Modest amplification of a midlevel trough over the southern High Plains, in combination with an increasingly moist warm advection regime, will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms this evening into tonight across parts of OK/north TX. There is also a small chance for near-surface-based thunderstorms along a confluence zone from Matagorda Bay northward into the western parts of southeast TX. Otherwise, a midlevel trough over the eastern Pacific will approach northern CA late in the period, when weak destabilization could support sufficiently deep convection for isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, the potential for deep convection will increase through the period in association with air mass modification and weak cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream. However, the potential for thunderstorms is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast for the southern Plains, based on recent CAM guidance. Please see previous discussion for more details. ..Hart.. 12/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A modifying air mass is returning northward into TX from the western Gulf basin, and continued low-level warming/moistening will result in gradual destabilization. Modest amplification of a midlevel trough over the southern High Plains, in combination with an increasingly moist warm advection regime, will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms this evening into tonight across parts of OK/north TX. There is also a small chance for near-surface-based thunderstorms along a confluence zone from Matagorda Bay northward into the western parts of southeast TX. Otherwise, a midlevel trough over the eastern Pacific will approach northern CA late in the period, when weak destabilization could support sufficiently deep convection for isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, the potential for deep convection will increase through the period in association with air mass modification and weak cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream. However, the potential for thunderstorms is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast for the southern Plains, based on recent CAM guidance. Please see previous discussion for more details. ..Hart.. 12/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A modifying air mass is returning northward into TX from the western Gulf basin, and continued low-level warming/moistening will result in gradual destabilization. Modest amplification of a midlevel trough over the southern High Plains, in combination with an increasingly moist warm advection regime, will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms this evening into tonight across parts of OK/north TX. There is also a small chance for near-surface-based thunderstorms along a confluence zone from Matagorda Bay northward into the western parts of southeast TX. Otherwise, a midlevel trough over the eastern Pacific will approach northern CA late in the period, when weak destabilization could support sufficiently deep convection for isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, the potential for deep convection will increase through the period in association with air mass modification and weak cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream. However, the potential for thunderstorms is expected to remain offshore. Read more