Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central High Plains into the Southeast, and along parts of the West Coast. No severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the southern and central High Plains. Further to the east, a shortwave trough is located in the lower Mississippi Valley. A few thunderstorms may develop in a moist airmass ahead of the trough this evening. A third shortwave trough is located in the eastern Pacific. As this trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Coast tonight, isolated lightning strikes may occur across western Washington, western Oregon and in far northwestern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Thursday. ..Broyles.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central High Plains into the Southeast, and along parts of the West Coast. No severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the southern and central High Plains. Further to the east, a shortwave trough is located in the lower Mississippi Valley. A few thunderstorms may develop in a moist airmass ahead of the trough this evening. A third shortwave trough is located in the eastern Pacific. As this trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Coast tonight, isolated lightning strikes may occur across western Washington, western Oregon and in far northwestern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Thursday. ..Broyles.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central High Plains into the Southeast, and along parts of the West Coast. No severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the southern and central High Plains. Further to the east, a shortwave trough is located in the lower Mississippi Valley. A few thunderstorms may develop in a moist airmass ahead of the trough this evening. A third shortwave trough is located in the eastern Pacific. As this trough approaches the Pacific Northwest Coast tonight, isolated lightning strikes may occur across western Washington, western Oregon and in far northwestern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Thursday. ..Broyles.. 12/26/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 25 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 25 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week, encouraging multiple rounds of surface cyclone development across the central U.S. while surface high pressure remains in place across much of the Interior West. Cool surface conditions will prevail across the northern CONUS, while areas along and east of the Mississippi River, as well as many locales west of the Rockies, are likely to experience appreciable precipitation accumulations. Conditions favorable for wildfire-spread should be absent in most locations, except the southern and central High Plains. Multiple days of dry and/or breezy conditions are possible due to downslope flow from the Rockies, which will be augmented by isallobaric flow from surface cyclones to the east. At the moment, there is consensus among medium-range guidance members in potentially critically dry/windy conditions over portions of the southern High Plains early next week, which will be preceded by dry/breezy afternoons and no forecast precipitation accumulations. As such, there is some potential for modest curing of fine fuels before some of the driest/windiest conditions arrive. Should guidance consensus continue to show critically dry/windy conditions early next week, Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week, encouraging multiple rounds of surface cyclone development across the central U.S. while surface high pressure remains in place across much of the Interior West. Cool surface conditions will prevail across the northern CONUS, while areas along and east of the Mississippi River, as well as many locales west of the Rockies, are likely to experience appreciable precipitation accumulations. Conditions favorable for wildfire-spread should be absent in most locations, except the southern and central High Plains. Multiple days of dry and/or breezy conditions are possible due to downslope flow from the Rockies, which will be augmented by isallobaric flow from surface cyclones to the east. At the moment, there is consensus among medium-range guidance members in potentially critically dry/windy conditions over portions of the southern High Plains early next week, which will be preceded by dry/breezy afternoons and no forecast precipitation accumulations. As such, there is some potential for modest curing of fine fuels before some of the driest/windiest conditions arrive. Should guidance consensus continue to show critically dry/windy conditions early next week, Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week, encouraging multiple rounds of surface cyclone development across the central U.S. while surface high pressure remains in place across much of the Interior West. Cool surface conditions will prevail across the northern CONUS, while areas along and east of the Mississippi River, as well as many locales west of the Rockies, are likely to experience appreciable precipitation accumulations. Conditions favorable for wildfire-spread should be absent in most locations, except the southern and central High Plains. Multiple days of dry and/or breezy conditions are possible due to downslope flow from the Rockies, which will be augmented by isallobaric flow from surface cyclones to the east. At the moment, there is consensus among medium-range guidance members in potentially critically dry/windy conditions over portions of the southern High Plains early next week, which will be preceded by dry/breezy afternoons and no forecast precipitation accumulations. As such, there is some potential for modest curing of fine fuels before some of the driest/windiest conditions arrive. Should guidance consensus continue to show critically dry/windy conditions early next week, Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week, encouraging multiple rounds of surface cyclone development across the central U.S. while surface high pressure remains in place across much of the Interior West. Cool surface conditions will prevail across the northern CONUS, while areas along and east of the Mississippi River, as well as many locales west of the Rockies, are likely to experience appreciable precipitation accumulations. Conditions favorable for wildfire-spread should be absent in most locations, except the southern and central High Plains. Multiple days of dry and/or breezy conditions are possible due to downslope flow from the Rockies, which will be augmented by isallobaric flow from surface cyclones to the east. At the moment, there is consensus among medium-range guidance members in potentially critically dry/windy conditions over portions of the southern High Plains early next week, which will be preceded by dry/breezy afternoons and no forecast precipitation accumulations. As such, there is some potential for modest curing of fine fuels before some of the driest/windiest conditions arrive. Should guidance consensus continue to show critically dry/windy conditions early next week, Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week, encouraging multiple rounds of surface cyclone development across the central U.S. while surface high pressure remains in place across much of the Interior West. Cool surface conditions will prevail across the northern CONUS, while areas along and east of the Mississippi River, as well as many locales west of the Rockies, are likely to experience appreciable precipitation accumulations. Conditions favorable for wildfire-spread should be absent in most locations, except the southern and central High Plains. Multiple days of dry and/or breezy conditions are possible due to downslope flow from the Rockies, which will be augmented by isallobaric flow from surface cyclones to the east. At the moment, there is consensus among medium-range guidance members in potentially critically dry/windy conditions over portions of the southern High Plains early next week, which will be preceded by dry/breezy afternoons and no forecast precipitation accumulations. As such, there is some potential for modest curing of fine fuels before some of the driest/windiest conditions arrive. Should guidance consensus continue to show critically dry/windy conditions early next week, Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...20Z Update... Aside from some minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains on track. A few stronger storm cores have been noted in parts of Plaquemines Parish in far southeast Louisiana. Very weak low-level rotation has occurred, primarily with storms offshore. Weak buoyancy inland should keep any substantive severe threat minimal. Towards Thursday morning, a few storms may impact southwest Oregon into northwest California. While hodographs ahead of the front would support some storm rotation, surface-based buoyancy will primarily be coincident with westerly low-level winds and much less favorable hodographs. As such, severe storms continue to appear unlikely. ..Wendt.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...20Z Update... Aside from some minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains on track. A few stronger storm cores have been noted in parts of Plaquemines Parish in far southeast Louisiana. Very weak low-level rotation has occurred, primarily with storms offshore. Weak buoyancy inland should keep any substantive severe threat minimal. Towards Thursday morning, a few storms may impact southwest Oregon into northwest California. While hodographs ahead of the front would support some storm rotation, surface-based buoyancy will primarily be coincident with westerly low-level winds and much less favorable hodographs. As such, severe storms continue to appear unlikely. ..Wendt.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...20Z Update... Aside from some minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains on track. A few stronger storm cores have been noted in parts of Plaquemines Parish in far southeast Louisiana. Very weak low-level rotation has occurred, primarily with storms offshore. Weak buoyancy inland should keep any substantive severe threat minimal. Towards Thursday morning, a few storms may impact southwest Oregon into northwest California. While hodographs ahead of the front would support some storm rotation, surface-based buoyancy will primarily be coincident with westerly low-level winds and much less favorable hodographs. As such, severe storms continue to appear unlikely. ..Wendt.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...20Z Update... Aside from some minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains on track. A few stronger storm cores have been noted in parts of Plaquemines Parish in far southeast Louisiana. Very weak low-level rotation has occurred, primarily with storms offshore. Weak buoyancy inland should keep any substantive severe threat minimal. Towards Thursday morning, a few storms may impact southwest Oregon into northwest California. While hodographs ahead of the front would support some storm rotation, surface-based buoyancy will primarily be coincident with westerly low-level winds and much less favorable hodographs. As such, severe storms continue to appear unlikely. ..Wendt.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...20Z Update... Aside from some minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains on track. A few stronger storm cores have been noted in parts of Plaquemines Parish in far southeast Louisiana. Very weak low-level rotation has occurred, primarily with storms offshore. Weak buoyancy inland should keep any substantive severe threat minimal. Towards Thursday morning, a few storms may impact southwest Oregon into northwest California. While hodographs ahead of the front would support some storm rotation, surface-based buoyancy will primarily be coincident with westerly low-level winds and much less favorable hodographs. As such, severe storms continue to appear unlikely. ..Wendt.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...20Z Update... Aside from some minor changes to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains on track. A few stronger storm cores have been noted in parts of Plaquemines Parish in far southeast Louisiana. Very weak low-level rotation has occurred, primarily with storms offshore. Weak buoyancy inland should keep any substantive severe threat minimal. Towards Thursday morning, a few storms may impact southwest Oregon into northwest California. While hodographs ahead of the front would support some storm rotation, surface-based buoyancy will primarily be coincident with westerly low-level winds and much less favorable hodographs. As such, severe storms continue to appear unlikely. ..Wendt.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Southeast LA... The large cluster of thunderstorms that affected southeast TX overnight has moved offshore into the Gulf. Other, likely elevated thunderstorms have developed across southeast LA in advance of the larger MCS. These storms are north of the primary surface warm front and in a region of limited low-level moisture/instability. A strong storm or two is possible across southeast LA this afternoon and evening. However, forecast soundings indicate veering low-level wind profiles but rather weak flow and limited shear magnitudes, precluding an organized severe threat. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains, while an associated dry/breezy post-frontal air mass develops across southwest into central TX. Marginal winds and RH should generally limit fire-weather concerns, especially given above-average fuel moisture. Farther west, strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow will overspread the CA coast -- on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This upper-level pattern may support locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA, though any fire-weather risk should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more