Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough advancing eastward across the southern Plains, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will develop across portions of west/central TX this afternoon. However, a limited spatial overlap of the breezy winds and low RH should temper fire-weather concerns -- especially given marginal fuels. Farther west, broad west-northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the CA coast on the backside of a broad large-scale trough. This may promote locally dry/breezy offshore flow across portions of southwest CA. Any elevated fire-weather concerns should remain fairly localized to the wind-prone mountains/valleys. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a relatively compact but potent mid-level shortwave trough over west/northwest TX, and this feature will move east to the Ark-La-Tex by late evening before reaching western TN/northern MS by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a weak surface low will consolidate over northeast TX by late afternoon/early evening before moving into northern AR late overnight. A warm frontal zone will advance northward across much of east TX and western LA with lower 60s dewpoints near the I-20 corridor and mid 60s over the coastal plain (locally mid-upper 60s in upper coast of TX). Considerable cloud cover will likely limit the overall magnitude of destabilization today. In relative agreement with previous forecast thinking, convective development should begin mid-late morning over north TX and subsequently southward along the I-35 corridor. Weak capping will erode such as scattered to numerous storms will likely develop during afternoon near the low/frontal zone and in the warm sector near and west of the Sabine River. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs with sufficient buoyancy for rotating storms capable of all hazards, primarily this afternoon into the early evening. The aforementioned expanding thunderstorm coverage and linear evolution will lessen the hail risk towards evening. Concurrently, this should favor more of a scattered damaging wind/isolated risk for a tornado into the evening, gradually lowering into the overnight as buoyancy lessens. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a relatively compact but potent mid-level shortwave trough over west/northwest TX, and this feature will move east to the Ark-La-Tex by late evening before reaching western TN/northern MS by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a weak surface low will consolidate over northeast TX by late afternoon/early evening before moving into northern AR late overnight. A warm frontal zone will advance northward across much of east TX and western LA with lower 60s dewpoints near the I-20 corridor and mid 60s over the coastal plain (locally mid-upper 60s in upper coast of TX). Considerable cloud cover will likely limit the overall magnitude of destabilization today. In relative agreement with previous forecast thinking, convective development should begin mid-late morning over north TX and subsequently southward along the I-35 corridor. Weak capping will erode such as scattered to numerous storms will likely develop during afternoon near the low/frontal zone and in the warm sector near and west of the Sabine River. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs with sufficient buoyancy for rotating storms capable of all hazards, primarily this afternoon into the early evening. The aforementioned expanding thunderstorm coverage and linear evolution will lessen the hail risk towards evening. Concurrently, this should favor more of a scattered damaging wind/isolated risk for a tornado into the evening, gradually lowering into the overnight as buoyancy lessens. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a relatively compact but potent mid-level shortwave trough over west/northwest TX, and this feature will move east to the Ark-La-Tex by late evening before reaching western TN/northern MS by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a weak surface low will consolidate over northeast TX by late afternoon/early evening before moving into northern AR late overnight. A warm frontal zone will advance northward across much of east TX and western LA with lower 60s dewpoints near the I-20 corridor and mid 60s over the coastal plain (locally mid-upper 60s in upper coast of TX). Considerable cloud cover will likely limit the overall magnitude of destabilization today. In relative agreement with previous forecast thinking, convective development should begin mid-late morning over north TX and subsequently southward along the I-35 corridor. Weak capping will erode such as scattered to numerous storms will likely develop during afternoon near the low/frontal zone and in the warm sector near and west of the Sabine River. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs with sufficient buoyancy for rotating storms capable of all hazards, primarily this afternoon into the early evening. The aforementioned expanding thunderstorm coverage and linear evolution will lessen the hail risk towards evening. Concurrently, this should favor more of a scattered damaging wind/isolated risk for a tornado into the evening, gradually lowering into the overnight as buoyancy lessens. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a relatively compact but potent mid-level shortwave trough over west/northwest TX, and this feature will move east to the Ark-La-Tex by late evening before reaching western TN/northern MS by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a weak surface low will consolidate over northeast TX by late afternoon/early evening before moving into northern AR late overnight. A warm frontal zone will advance northward across much of east TX and western LA with lower 60s dewpoints near the I-20 corridor and mid 60s over the coastal plain (locally mid-upper 60s in upper coast of TX). Considerable cloud cover will likely limit the overall magnitude of destabilization today. In relative agreement with previous forecast thinking, convective development should begin mid-late morning over north TX and subsequently southward along the I-35 corridor. Weak capping will erode such as scattered to numerous storms will likely develop during afternoon near the low/frontal zone and in the warm sector near and west of the Sabine River. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs with sufficient buoyancy for rotating storms capable of all hazards, primarily this afternoon into the early evening. The aforementioned expanding thunderstorm coverage and linear evolution will lessen the hail risk towards evening. Concurrently, this should favor more of a scattered damaging wind/isolated risk for a tornado into the evening, gradually lowering into the overnight as buoyancy lessens. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a relatively compact but potent mid-level shortwave trough over west/northwest TX, and this feature will move east to the Ark-La-Tex by late evening before reaching western TN/northern MS by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a weak surface low will consolidate over northeast TX by late afternoon/early evening before moving into northern AR late overnight. A warm frontal zone will advance northward across much of east TX and western LA with lower 60s dewpoints near the I-20 corridor and mid 60s over the coastal plain (locally mid-upper 60s in upper coast of TX). Considerable cloud cover will likely limit the overall magnitude of destabilization today. In relative agreement with previous forecast thinking, convective development should begin mid-late morning over north TX and subsequently southward along the I-35 corridor. Weak capping will erode such as scattered to numerous storms will likely develop during afternoon near the low/frontal zone and in the warm sector near and west of the Sabine River. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs with sufficient buoyancy for rotating storms capable of all hazards, primarily this afternoon into the early evening. The aforementioned expanding thunderstorm coverage and linear evolution will lessen the hail risk towards evening. Concurrently, this should favor more of a scattered damaging wind/isolated risk for a tornado into the evening, gradually lowering into the overnight as buoyancy lessens. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a relatively compact but potent mid-level shortwave trough over west/northwest TX, and this feature will move east to the Ark-La-Tex by late evening before reaching western TN/northern MS by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a weak surface low will consolidate over northeast TX by late afternoon/early evening before moving into northern AR late overnight. A warm frontal zone will advance northward across much of east TX and western LA with lower 60s dewpoints near the I-20 corridor and mid 60s over the coastal plain (locally mid-upper 60s in upper coast of TX). Considerable cloud cover will likely limit the overall magnitude of destabilization today. In relative agreement with previous forecast thinking, convective development should begin mid-late morning over north TX and subsequently southward along the I-35 corridor. Weak capping will erode such as scattered to numerous storms will likely develop during afternoon near the low/frontal zone and in the warm sector near and west of the Sabine River. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs with sufficient buoyancy for rotating storms capable of all hazards, primarily this afternoon into the early evening. The aforementioned expanding thunderstorm coverage and linear evolution will lessen the hail risk towards evening. Concurrently, this should favor more of a scattered damaging wind/isolated risk for a tornado into the evening, gradually lowering into the overnight as buoyancy lessens. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/26/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather risk is expected on Sunday/Day 4 across the Southeast States as an upper trough shifts east-northeastward from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys toward the Appalachians. Very strong deep-layer winds will overspread the region, but guidance variability exists regarding the availability and north-northeastward extent of minimal buoyancy, especially with GFS/ECMWF-related guidance depicting the possibility of considerable scattered convection ongoing Sunday morning. Regional areas including northern Florida into southern/eastern Georgia and parts of the Carolinas will continue to be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks as far as Sunday's severe potential, but at least some/low-end severe risk seems probable even with these instability uncertainties. Thereafter, severe-weather potential early next week is currently expected to remain low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather risk is expected on Sunday/Day 4 across the Southeast States as an upper trough shifts east-northeastward from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys toward the Appalachians. Very strong deep-layer winds will overspread the region, but guidance variability exists regarding the availability and north-northeastward extent of minimal buoyancy, especially with GFS/ECMWF-related guidance depicting the possibility of considerable scattered convection ongoing Sunday morning. Regional areas including northern Florida into southern/eastern Georgia and parts of the Carolinas will continue to be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks as far as Sunday's severe potential, but at least some/low-end severe risk seems probable even with these instability uncertainties. Thereafter, severe-weather potential early next week is currently expected to remain low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather risk is expected on Sunday/Day 4 across the Southeast States as an upper trough shifts east-northeastward from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys toward the Appalachians. Very strong deep-layer winds will overspread the region, but guidance variability exists regarding the availability and north-northeastward extent of minimal buoyancy, especially with GFS/ECMWF-related guidance depicting the possibility of considerable scattered convection ongoing Sunday morning. Regional areas including northern Florida into southern/eastern Georgia and parts of the Carolinas will continue to be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks as far as Sunday's severe potential, but at least some/low-end severe risk seems probable even with these instability uncertainties. Thereafter, severe-weather potential early next week is currently expected to remain low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather risk is expected on Sunday/Day 4 across the Southeast States as an upper trough shifts east-northeastward from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys toward the Appalachians. Very strong deep-layer winds will overspread the region, but guidance variability exists regarding the availability and north-northeastward extent of minimal buoyancy, especially with GFS/ECMWF-related guidance depicting the possibility of considerable scattered convection ongoing Sunday morning. Regional areas including northern Florida into southern/eastern Georgia and parts of the Carolinas will continue to be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks as far as Sunday's severe potential, but at least some/low-end severe risk seems probable even with these instability uncertainties. Thereafter, severe-weather potential early next week is currently expected to remain low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather risk is expected on Sunday/Day 4 across the Southeast States as an upper trough shifts east-northeastward from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys toward the Appalachians. Very strong deep-layer winds will overspread the region, but guidance variability exists regarding the availability and north-northeastward extent of minimal buoyancy, especially with GFS/ECMWF-related guidance depicting the possibility of considerable scattered convection ongoing Sunday morning. Regional areas including northern Florida into southern/eastern Georgia and parts of the Carolinas will continue to be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks as far as Sunday's severe potential, but at least some/low-end severe risk seems probable even with these instability uncertainties. Thereafter, severe-weather potential early next week is currently expected to remain low. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Saturday from East Texas to the ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley... A relatively complex forecast scenario exists for Saturday including some key timing/intensity differences among 00z-based global guidance. But while some spatial and event-magnitude details are uncertain, severe-weather potential is regionally apparent. This currently appear most probable centered across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, but potentially also including areas such as southeast Arkansas and far East Texas. A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the southern Plains to Ozarks/Mid-South on Saturday, with a notable strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, highlighted by some global guidance depictions of 50+ kt west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover will probably be complicating factors as far as forecast details, while potentially also limiting the overall risk magnitude and/or the northern extent of the primary severe risk. More common-than-usual areal severe-risk adjustments may be warranted into the Day 2 and Day 1 time frames as thermodynamic details and the disposition of early day convection are better resolved. Even with the possibility of semi-prevalent early day convection/clouds, ample mass response related to the approaching upper-level system, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse rates and strengthening flow fields, should inspire an uptick in deeper convection Saturday afternoon, perhaps initially across East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity. It appears that all severe-weather modes and hazards could occur, including large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes as storms steadily develop east-northeastward Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. ..Guyer.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Saturday from East Texas to the ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley... A relatively complex forecast scenario exists for Saturday including some key timing/intensity differences among 00z-based global guidance. But while some spatial and event-magnitude details are uncertain, severe-weather potential is regionally apparent. This currently appear most probable centered across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, but potentially also including areas such as southeast Arkansas and far East Texas. A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the southern Plains to Ozarks/Mid-South on Saturday, with a notable strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, highlighted by some global guidance depictions of 50+ kt west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover will probably be complicating factors as far as forecast details, while potentially also limiting the overall risk magnitude and/or the northern extent of the primary severe risk. More common-than-usual areal severe-risk adjustments may be warranted into the Day 2 and Day 1 time frames as thermodynamic details and the disposition of early day convection are better resolved. Even with the possibility of semi-prevalent early day convection/clouds, ample mass response related to the approaching upper-level system, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse rates and strengthening flow fields, should inspire an uptick in deeper convection Saturday afternoon, perhaps initially across East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity. It appears that all severe-weather modes and hazards could occur, including large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes as storms steadily develop east-northeastward Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. ..Guyer.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Saturday from East Texas to the ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley... A relatively complex forecast scenario exists for Saturday including some key timing/intensity differences among 00z-based global guidance. But while some spatial and event-magnitude details are uncertain, severe-weather potential is regionally apparent. This currently appear most probable centered across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, but potentially also including areas such as southeast Arkansas and far East Texas. A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the southern Plains to Ozarks/Mid-South on Saturday, with a notable strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, highlighted by some global guidance depictions of 50+ kt west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover will probably be complicating factors as far as forecast details, while potentially also limiting the overall risk magnitude and/or the northern extent of the primary severe risk. More common-than-usual areal severe-risk adjustments may be warranted into the Day 2 and Day 1 time frames as thermodynamic details and the disposition of early day convection are better resolved. Even with the possibility of semi-prevalent early day convection/clouds, ample mass response related to the approaching upper-level system, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse rates and strengthening flow fields, should inspire an uptick in deeper convection Saturday afternoon, perhaps initially across East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity. It appears that all severe-weather modes and hazards could occur, including large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes as storms steadily develop east-northeastward Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. ..Guyer.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Saturday from East Texas to the ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley... A relatively complex forecast scenario exists for Saturday including some key timing/intensity differences among 00z-based global guidance. But while some spatial and event-magnitude details are uncertain, severe-weather potential is regionally apparent. This currently appear most probable centered across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, but potentially also including areas such as southeast Arkansas and far East Texas. A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the southern Plains to Ozarks/Mid-South on Saturday, with a notable strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, highlighted by some global guidance depictions of 50+ kt west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover will probably be complicating factors as far as forecast details, while potentially also limiting the overall risk magnitude and/or the northern extent of the primary severe risk. More common-than-usual areal severe-risk adjustments may be warranted into the Day 2 and Day 1 time frames as thermodynamic details and the disposition of early day convection are better resolved. Even with the possibility of semi-prevalent early day convection/clouds, ample mass response related to the approaching upper-level system, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse rates and strengthening flow fields, should inspire an uptick in deeper convection Saturday afternoon, perhaps initially across East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity. It appears that all severe-weather modes and hazards could occur, including large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes as storms steadily develop east-northeastward Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. ..Guyer.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Saturday from East Texas to the ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley... A relatively complex forecast scenario exists for Saturday including some key timing/intensity differences among 00z-based global guidance. But while some spatial and event-magnitude details are uncertain, severe-weather potential is regionally apparent. This currently appear most probable centered across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, but potentially also including areas such as southeast Arkansas and far East Texas. A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the southern Plains to Ozarks/Mid-South on Saturday, with a notable strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, highlighted by some global guidance depictions of 50+ kt west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover will probably be complicating factors as far as forecast details, while potentially also limiting the overall risk magnitude and/or the northern extent of the primary severe risk. More common-than-usual areal severe-risk adjustments may be warranted into the Day 2 and Day 1 time frames as thermodynamic details and the disposition of early day convection are better resolved. Even with the possibility of semi-prevalent early day convection/clouds, ample mass response related to the approaching upper-level system, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse rates and strengthening flow fields, should inspire an uptick in deeper convection Saturday afternoon, perhaps initially across East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity. It appears that all severe-weather modes and hazards could occur, including large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes as storms steadily develop east-northeastward Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. ..Guyer.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Saturday from East Texas to the ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley... A relatively complex forecast scenario exists for Saturday including some key timing/intensity differences among 00z-based global guidance. But while some spatial and event-magnitude details are uncertain, severe-weather potential is regionally apparent. This currently appear most probable centered across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, but potentially also including areas such as southeast Arkansas and far East Texas. A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the southern Plains to Ozarks/Mid-South on Saturday, with a notable strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, highlighted by some global guidance depictions of 50+ kt west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover will probably be complicating factors as far as forecast details, while potentially also limiting the overall risk magnitude and/or the northern extent of the primary severe risk. More common-than-usual areal severe-risk adjustments may be warranted into the Day 2 and Day 1 time frames as thermodynamic details and the disposition of early day convection are better resolved. Even with the possibility of semi-prevalent early day convection/clouds, ample mass response related to the approaching upper-level system, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse rates and strengthening flow fields, should inspire an uptick in deeper convection Saturday afternoon, perhaps initially across East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity. It appears that all severe-weather modes and hazards could occur, including large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes as storms steadily develop east-northeastward Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. ..Guyer.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Cyclonically curved westerlies will feature multiple mid-level disturbances influencing the region on Friday, including one shortwave trough that will quickly spread northeastward away from the region early Friday, with a more glancing influence by a secondary impulse later in the day. Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, potentially from western/Middle Tennessee south-southwestward across eastern/southern Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur/linger early in the day across parts of Mississippi, where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a residually strong deep-layer/low-level wind field, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the southern periphery of the early day storms across Mississippi and possibly into nearby Louisiana/Alabama. Overall instability should remain relatively weak, but sufficient moisture/buoyancy in the presence of 35-40 kt of effective shear could potentially allow for a few weak/transient supercells in the afternoon. A couple of locally severe storms could occur. Thunderstorms may otherwise increase in a northward-expanding trend late Friday night, potentially near the upper Texas coast and more so across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. This will be as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail cannot be entirely ruled out in the presence of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... Cyclonically curved westerlies will feature multiple mid-level disturbances influencing the region on Friday, including one shortwave trough that will quickly spread northeastward away from the region early Friday, with a more glancing influence by a secondary impulse later in the day. Linearly organized thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning, potentially from western/Middle Tennessee south-southwestward across eastern/southern Mississippi into Louisiana. Some strong to locally severe storms could occur/linger early in the day across parts of Mississippi, where a modest reservoir of instability may reside coincident with a residually strong deep-layer/low-level wind field, even while the main upper system quickly shifts away from the region. Some air mass recovery is possible during the day on the southern periphery of the early day storms across Mississippi and possibly into nearby Louisiana/Alabama. Overall instability should remain relatively weak, but sufficient moisture/buoyancy in the presence of 35-40 kt of effective shear could potentially allow for a few weak/transient supercells in the afternoon. A couple of locally severe storms could occur. Thunderstorms may otherwise increase in a northward-expanding trend late Friday night, potentially near the upper Texas coast and more so across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. This will be as the low-level baroclinic zone begins to return northward and isentropic ascent increases. Some hail cannot be entirely ruled out in the presence of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and around 35-40 kt of shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Guyer.. 12/26/2024 Read more