Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 20-25 percent RH are likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow afternoon given downslope flow. However, fuels still appear too marginally receptive to wildfire spread to support any fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad/strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow across the central/southern Rockies will maintain lee troughing along the adjacent High Plains. As a result, breezy downslope flow with modest RH reductions will develop across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. However, marginal RH and fuels should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2282 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO EAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Areas affected...The Texas Coastal Plain into East Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 261623Z - 261900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat is expected to steadily increase through the late morning and afternoon as the environment becomes more favorable for robust convection. Watch issuance is anticipated in the coming hours to address this threat. DISCUSSION...Open warm sector convection has been steadily increasing in both coverage and depth over the past hour across the TX Coastal Plain into southeast TX with a few deeper cells beginning to reach sufficient depth for steady lightning production. Recent surface observations show the early stages of surface cyclogenesis across north TX with an attendant increase in southeasterly winds and a steady northwestward progression of low-level moisture. Despite extensive cloud cover, mid-60s dewpoints, combined with 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, should promote MLCAPE values increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range by early afternoon. Coincidentally, the low/mid-level mass response associated with the deepening surface low should promote increasing low-level SRH and deep-layer wind shear that should promote supercellular storm modes within the open warm sector. As such, the expectation is that the developing convection should continue to slowly deepen and intensify through early afternoon with an attendant increase in the overall severe threat. Exact timing of when convection will become sufficiently intense to warrant watch issuance remains uncertain (though a watch will likely be needed by early-afternoon), but given the potential for supercellular tornadoes, including significant tornadoes, a tornado watch will likely be needed. ..Moore/Thompson.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30019407 29059582 29059627 29169666 29389700 29959715 30379710 31759498 31789449 31599419 31169395 30799378 30479374 30259380 30019407 Read more

WW 0714 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..12/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC073-081-091-261940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER LAC015-017-261940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-213-223-257-315-343-349-379-423-449- 459-467-499-261940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOWIE CAMP CASS FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON HOPKINS KAUFMAN MARION MORRIS NAVARRO Read more

WW 0714 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..12/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC073-081-091-261940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER LAC015-017-261940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-213-223-257-315-343-349-379-423-449- 459-467-499-261940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOWIE CAMP CASS FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON HOPKINS KAUFMAN MARION MORRIS NAVARRO Read more

WW 0715 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N VCT TO 40 S CRS TO 20 NW CRS. ..MOORE..12/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC031-085-261940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE DE SOTO SABINE TXC001-005-015-039-041-051-071-073-089-157-161-167-185-199-201- 225-241-245-289-291-313-339-347-351-361-365-373-395-401-403-405- 407-419-455-457-471-473-477-481-261940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON CHAMBERS CHEROKEE COLORADO FORT BEND FREESTONE GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS HOUSTON JASPER JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE PANOLA POLK ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE Read more

WW 0715 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N VCT TO 40 S CRS TO 20 NW CRS. ..MOORE..12/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC031-085-261940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE DE SOTO SABINE TXC001-005-015-039-041-051-071-073-089-157-161-167-185-199-201- 225-241-245-289-291-313-339-347-351-361-365-373-395-401-403-405- 407-419-455-457-471-473-477-481-261940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BRAZORIA BRAZOS BURLESON CHAMBERS CHEROKEE COLORADO FORT BEND FREESTONE GALVESTON GRIMES HARDIN HARRIS HOUSTON JASPER JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE PANOLA POLK ROBERTSON RUSK SABINE Read more

MD 2283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Areas affected...northeast Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 261714Z - 261845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will gradually increase into the afternoon hours across northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail to 1.75 inch diameter and severe gusts to 65 mph are possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued soon. DISCUSSION...A surface low near/just south of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex will develop east through this afternoon and evening. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s F across northeast TX into the ArkLaTex will increase some in a continued low-level warm advection regime ahead of the low. Heating will remain muted by low-level cloud cover and ongoing convection. As a result, surface-based convection likely will remain sparse, except near the southern edge of the MCD where a warm front is expected to exist by late afternoon. A mixed mode of scattered, elevated cells and line segments will evolve with time into late afternoon/early evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to modest MUCAPE amid supercell wind profiles. This will support isolated large hail up to 1.75 inch diameter. While convection is expected to largely remain elevated, if and where stronger destabilization occurs, surging line segments could produce severe gusts to 65 mph. The tornado risk overall should remain limited given the elevated nature of storms. However, across the southern MCD area adjacent to southeast TX, a tornado or two will be possible if the surface warm front retreats that far north by late afternoon/evening. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32089378 31799410 31549549 31549661 31819733 32519706 33259660 33559602 33789528 33709414 33209368 32439358 32089378 Read more

WW 0715 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0715 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and Alabama. ...Synopsis... A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday. The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period. ...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL... A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day. A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region. The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some damaging wind gusts. Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z Saturday. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and Alabama. ...Synopsis... A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday. The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period. ...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL... A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day. A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region. The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some damaging wind gusts. Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z Saturday. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2024 Read more