Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and the warm sector will likely be narrow. By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past 1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and the warm sector will likely be narrow. By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past 1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and the warm sector will likely be narrow. By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past 1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and the warm sector will likely be narrow. By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past 1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and the warm sector will likely be narrow. By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past 1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... While strong zonal flow will persist across portions of the Midwest into the Northeast, broadly cyclonic flow will increase across the western U.S. through the period. A shortwave trough will emerge from northern Mexico and eject into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, Gulf moisture will remain near the coast, south of a stalled cold front. As the upper trough approaches, this moisture will make some progress northward overnight Monday. ...Edwards Plateau into Northeast Texas... While models differ on the northward advancement of moisture late Monday into Tuesday--the NAM most notably less aggressive--it is probable that moisture will be sufficient to support elevated buoyancy. Modest mid-level ascent and lower-level warm advection will promote showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Edwards Plateau region into Central and Northeast Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning. While shear will be strong, mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy will be weak. Severe weather is not expected with this activity. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... While strong zonal flow will persist across portions of the Midwest into the Northeast, broadly cyclonic flow will increase across the western U.S. through the period. A shortwave trough will emerge from northern Mexico and eject into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, Gulf moisture will remain near the coast, south of a stalled cold front. As the upper trough approaches, this moisture will make some progress northward overnight Monday. ...Edwards Plateau into Northeast Texas... While models differ on the northward advancement of moisture late Monday into Tuesday--the NAM most notably less aggressive--it is probable that moisture will be sufficient to support elevated buoyancy. Modest mid-level ascent and lower-level warm advection will promote showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Edwards Plateau region into Central and Northeast Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning. While shear will be strong, mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy will be weak. Severe weather is not expected with this activity. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... While strong zonal flow will persist across portions of the Midwest into the Northeast, broadly cyclonic flow will increase across the western U.S. through the period. A shortwave trough will emerge from northern Mexico and eject into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, Gulf moisture will remain near the coast, south of a stalled cold front. As the upper trough approaches, this moisture will make some progress northward overnight Monday. ...Edwards Plateau into Northeast Texas... While models differ on the northward advancement of moisture late Monday into Tuesday--the NAM most notably less aggressive--it is probable that moisture will be sufficient to support elevated buoyancy. Modest mid-level ascent and lower-level warm advection will promote showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Edwards Plateau region into Central and Northeast Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning. While shear will be strong, mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy will be weak. Severe weather is not expected with this activity. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... While strong zonal flow will persist across portions of the Midwest into the Northeast, broadly cyclonic flow will increase across the western U.S. through the period. A shortwave trough will emerge from northern Mexico and eject into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, Gulf moisture will remain near the coast, south of a stalled cold front. As the upper trough approaches, this moisture will make some progress northward overnight Monday. ...Edwards Plateau into Northeast Texas... While models differ on the northward advancement of moisture late Monday into Tuesday--the NAM most notably less aggressive--it is probable that moisture will be sufficient to support elevated buoyancy. Modest mid-level ascent and lower-level warm advection will promote showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Edwards Plateau region into Central and Northeast Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning. While shear will be strong, mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy will be weak. Severe weather is not expected with this activity. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... While strong zonal flow will persist across portions of the Midwest into the Northeast, broadly cyclonic flow will increase across the western U.S. through the period. A shortwave trough will emerge from northern Mexico and eject into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, Gulf moisture will remain near the coast, south of a stalled cold front. As the upper trough approaches, this moisture will make some progress northward overnight Monday. ...Edwards Plateau into Northeast Texas... While models differ on the northward advancement of moisture late Monday into Tuesday--the NAM most notably less aggressive--it is probable that moisture will be sufficient to support elevated buoyancy. Modest mid-level ascent and lower-level warm advection will promote showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Edwards Plateau region into Central and Northeast Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning. While shear will be strong, mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy will be weak. Severe weather is not expected with this activity. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... While strong zonal flow will persist across portions of the Midwest into the Northeast, broadly cyclonic flow will increase across the western U.S. through the period. A shortwave trough will emerge from northern Mexico and eject into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, Gulf moisture will remain near the coast, south of a stalled cold front. As the upper trough approaches, this moisture will make some progress northward overnight Monday. ...Edwards Plateau into Northeast Texas... While models differ on the northward advancement of moisture late Monday into Tuesday--the NAM most notably less aggressive--it is probable that moisture will be sufficient to support elevated buoyancy. Modest mid-level ascent and lower-level warm advection will promote showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Edwards Plateau region into Central and Northeast Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning. While shear will be strong, mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy will be weak. Severe weather is not expected with this activity. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more