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6 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0077 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 082321Z - 090315Z
SUMMARY...Leading corridor of winter storm across the Northeast will
produce a heavy snow band before transitioning to sleet/freezing
rain from the southwest. Heavy snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour
are likely.
DISCUSSION...A fast-moving swath of winter mixed precip will spread
across the Northeast and southern New England states through the
rest of this evening. Strengthening low to mid-level ascent will
yield a band of heavy snow along the leading periphery of this
precip plume where the thermodynamic profile remains entirely below
freezing. The initial swath should emanate out of the north-central
PA/southwest NY vicinity, where heavy snow has been observed, and
should expand east-southeastward along the NY to PA/NJ border area
over the next few hours. A longer-lasting deformation zone within
the cold-conveyor region should develop east from the Lake Erie
vicinity and move across much of southern NY during the next several
hours. A highly consistent signal persists across daytime guidance
with snowfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. The southern portion of the heavy
snow swath to about the Upper DE and Lower Hudson Valleys should mix
with/transition to sleet/freezing rain later in the evening.
..Grams.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 40677327 41357478 41657603 41777768 42117911 42547929
43117880 43417525 43287361 42927212 42647131 42087094
41517107 40927210 40677327
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early this evening.
...01z Update...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley region early this evening. Primary corridor for
large-scale ascent is now focusing across the upper OH Valley into
the northern Middle Atlantic, as LLJ strengthens ahead of the short
wave. Widespread precipitation is noted within the warm advection
zone but elevated convection is gradually weakening, and only a few
flashes of lightning may be noted for the next few hours along the
nose of the LLJ. Additionally, shallow weak convection is currently
observed along the trailing cold front across KY into TN, but this
activity has struggled to attain heights necessary for lightning.
This activity will likely remain too shallow the rest of tonight for
any meaningful risk for thunderstorms. 01z adjustments will reflect
lower confidence in lightning, thus severe probabilities will be
removed.
..Darrow.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early this evening.
...01z Update...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley region early this evening. Primary corridor for
large-scale ascent is now focusing across the upper OH Valley into
the northern Middle Atlantic, as LLJ strengthens ahead of the short
wave. Widespread precipitation is noted within the warm advection
zone but elevated convection is gradually weakening, and only a few
flashes of lightning may be noted for the next few hours along the
nose of the LLJ. Additionally, shallow weak convection is currently
observed along the trailing cold front across KY into TN, but this
activity has struggled to attain heights necessary for lightning.
This activity will likely remain too shallow the rest of tonight for
any meaningful risk for thunderstorms. 01z adjustments will reflect
lower confidence in lightning, thus severe probabilities will be
removed.
..Darrow.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early this evening.
...01z Update...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley region early this evening. Primary corridor for
large-scale ascent is now focusing across the upper OH Valley into
the northern Middle Atlantic, as LLJ strengthens ahead of the short
wave. Widespread precipitation is noted within the warm advection
zone but elevated convection is gradually weakening, and only a few
flashes of lightning may be noted for the next few hours along the
nose of the LLJ. Additionally, shallow weak convection is currently
observed along the trailing cold front across KY into TN, but this
activity has struggled to attain heights necessary for lightning.
This activity will likely remain too shallow the rest of tonight for
any meaningful risk for thunderstorms. 01z adjustments will reflect
lower confidence in lightning, thus severe probabilities will be
removed.
..Darrow.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early this evening.
...01z Update...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley region early this evening. Primary corridor for
large-scale ascent is now focusing across the upper OH Valley into
the northern Middle Atlantic, as LLJ strengthens ahead of the short
wave. Widespread precipitation is noted within the warm advection
zone but elevated convection is gradually weakening, and only a few
flashes of lightning may be noted for the next few hours along the
nose of the LLJ. Additionally, shallow weak convection is currently
observed along the trailing cold front across KY into TN, but this
activity has struggled to attain heights necessary for lightning.
This activity will likely remain too shallow the rest of tonight for
any meaningful risk for thunderstorms. 01z adjustments will reflect
lower confidence in lightning, thus severe probabilities will be
removed.
..Darrow.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early this evening.
...01z Update...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley region early this evening. Primary corridor for
large-scale ascent is now focusing across the upper OH Valley into
the northern Middle Atlantic, as LLJ strengthens ahead of the short
wave. Widespread precipitation is noted within the warm advection
zone but elevated convection is gradually weakening, and only a few
flashes of lightning may be noted for the next few hours along the
nose of the LLJ. Additionally, shallow weak convection is currently
observed along the trailing cold front across KY into TN, but this
activity has struggled to attain heights necessary for lightning.
This activity will likely remain too shallow the rest of tonight for
any meaningful risk for thunderstorms. 01z adjustments will reflect
lower confidence in lightning, thus severe probabilities will be
removed.
..Darrow.. 02/09/2025
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0076 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO FAR NORTHERN WEST-VIRGINIA/MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Areas affected...northwest to south-central Pennsylvania into far
northern West-Virginia/Maryland
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 082042Z - 090045Z
SUMMARY...Snow transitioning to a combination of sleet and freezing
rain is expected to overspread northwest to south-central
Pennsylvania and far northeast West Virginia/northwest Maryland
through the late afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03
in/hour are possible.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a swath of stratiform
precipitation overspreading OH with an additional precipitation band
associated with strengthening isentropic ascent developing across WV
into northwest VA/western MD. Over the past hour, surface
observations and mPING reports from north-central OH have reported a
mixture of freezing rain (with one-hour accumulations up to 0.03
inches) and sleet as surface temperatures wet-bulb down to the upper
20s/low 30s. Slightly cooler conditions are noted downstream across
PA where surface temperatures are largely below freezing with
dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s. Initially sub-freezing
temperatures throughout the column over PA should promote mainly
snow as the initial p-type as precipitation begins overspreading the
region.
With time, strengthening mid-level warm advection will result in a
1-4 C warm nose within the 850-700 mb layer. Concurrently, wet-bulb
cooling within the lowest kilometer will maintain sub-freezing
temperatures near the surface. These thermodynamic trends will
promote a transition from mainly snow to a mix of freezing rain and
sleet, similar to recent upstream observations. The propensity for
one precipitation type over the other will largely depend on the
strength of the warm nose aloft, which varies across recent
deterministic solutions leading to limited confidence in coverage of
sleet/freezing rain and accumulation amounts. Regardless, moderate
to heavy precipitation rates - especially under any embedded
convective elements - may result in periods of moderate sleet and/or
freezing rain.
..Moore.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 39897939 40447889 40747894 40927924 40927988 41118051
41578058 41908037 42017987 42047877 42037851 41987816
41937785 41567717 41187668 40747624 40427611 40087610
39897628 39777661 39547796 39487856 39467902 39547937
39697946 39897939
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 8 23:59:02 UTC 2025.
6 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0077 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 082321Z - 090315Z
SUMMARY...Leading corridor of winter storm across the Northeast will
produce a heavy snow band before transitioning to sleet/freezing
rain from the southwest. Heavy snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour
are likely.
DISCUSSION...A fast-moving swath of winter mixed precip will spread
across the Northeast and southern New England states through the
rest of this evening. Strengthening low to mid-level ascent will
yield a band of heavy snow along the leading periphery of this
precip plume where the thermodynamic profile remains entirely below
freezing. The initial swath should emanate out of the north-central
PA/southwest NY vicinity, where heavy snow has been observed, and
should expand east-southeastward along the NY to PA/NJ border area
over the next few hours. A longer-lasting deformation zone within
the cold-conveyor region should develop east from the Lake Erie
vicinity and move across much of southern NY during the next several
hours. A highly consistent signal persists across daytime guidance
with snowfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. The southern portion of the heavy
snow swath to about the Upper DE and Lower Hudson Valleys should mix
with/transition to sleet/freezing rain later in the evening.
..Grams.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 40677327 41357478 41657603 41777768 42117911 42547929
43117880 43417525 43287361 42927212 42647131 42087094
41517107 40927210 40677327
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0078 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Areas affected...far northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic and far
southern portions of New England
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 082324Z - 090330Z
SUMMARY...Snow should overspread the region in the next few hours.
With time, the snow should transition to sleet and even freezing
rain before ending later this evening/overnight.
DISCUSSION...An area of mixed winter precipitation continues across
western and central Pennsylvania this evening. This precipitation
area developed/is being maintained on the nose of strong low-level
warm-air advection across a deep layer. Over the next few hours this
warm-air advection and associated isentropic ascent will overspread
eastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey. Surface temperatures in
the upper-20Fs and low-30Fs, coupled with dewpoint temperatures in
the upper-teens and low-20Fs, yield wet-bulb temperatures below 32F.
Thermal profiles across the region will initially support all snow.
However, as the warm-air advection warms the low-levels, the maximum
temperature in the column should increase above 32F yielding sleet
and potentially eventually freezing rain before precipitation ends
from southwest to northeast.
..Marsh.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39177553 39527647 40417671 41247631 41547565 41477463
41017363 39987304 39137378 38907485 39177553
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0076 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO FAR NORTHERN WEST-VIRGINIA/MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Areas affected...northwest to south-central Pennsylvania into far
northern West-Virginia/Maryland
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 082042Z - 090045Z
SUMMARY...Snow transitioning to a combination of sleet and freezing
rain is expected to overspread northwest to south-central
Pennsylvania and far northeast West Virginia/northwest Maryland
through the late afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03
in/hour are possible.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a swath of stratiform
precipitation overspreading OH with an additional precipitation band
associated with strengthening isentropic ascent developing across WV
into northwest VA/western MD. Over the past hour, surface
observations and mPING reports from north-central OH have reported a
mixture of freezing rain (with one-hour accumulations up to 0.03
inches) and sleet as surface temperatures wet-bulb down to the upper
20s/low 30s. Slightly cooler conditions are noted downstream across
PA where surface temperatures are largely below freezing with
dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s. Initially sub-freezing
temperatures throughout the column over PA should promote mainly
snow as the initial p-type as precipitation begins overspreading the
region.
With time, strengthening mid-level warm advection will result in a
1-4 C warm nose within the 850-700 mb layer. Concurrently, wet-bulb
cooling within the lowest kilometer will maintain sub-freezing
temperatures near the surface. These thermodynamic trends will
promote a transition from mainly snow to a mix of freezing rain and
sleet, similar to recent upstream observations. The propensity for
one precipitation type over the other will largely depend on the
strength of the warm nose aloft, which varies across recent
deterministic solutions leading to limited confidence in coverage of
sleet/freezing rain and accumulation amounts. Regardless, moderate
to heavy precipitation rates - especially under any embedded
convective elements - may result in periods of moderate sleet and/or
freezing rain.
..Moore.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 39897939 40447889 40747894 40927924 40927988 41118051
41578058 41908037 42017987 42047877 42037851 41987816
41937785 41567717 41187668 40747624 40427611 40087610
39897628 39777661 39547796 39487856 39467902 39547937
39697946 39897939
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0075 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Areas affected...Northeast Indiana into far southern Michigan and
northern Ohio
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 081746Z - 082245Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain will gradually become more widespread across
north/northeast Indiana and northern Ohio through the mid to late
afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03 in/hour appear
possible.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a swath of stratiform
precipitation (with embedded convective elements) becoming
established across north-central IN as isentropic ascent increases
within the warm conveyor belt of an intensifying mid-level low. This
trend is expected to continue through the afternoon hours as
warm/moist advection increases amid strengthening 925-700 mb winds.
This mid-level warm advection will reinforce a weak warm-nose aloft,
and should promote mainly liquid hydrometeors near the surface.
Although surface temperatures are currently near freezing across
northern IN/OH, dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s suggest that
wet-bulb cooling to below freezing is likely after the initial onset
of precipitation. This trend is already being observed at a few
locations across northern IN with some ASOS/AWOS and mPING reports
of freezing rain noted over the past 30-60 minutes.
Surface temperatures from the 12 UTC HREF members appear to be
running 1-3 F too cold compared to 17 UTC observations, which
suggests that freezing rainfall estimates from these members/HREF
probabilities may be too bullish. However, more recent deterministic
solutions (HRRR/RAP) have captured surface temperature trends well
and depict freezing rain rates of around 0.03 in/hour. These
solutions also suggest that freezing rain potential may be greatest
across northwest to north-central OH through late afternoon with
accumulations up to 0.1 - 0.25 inch possible.
..Moore.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...
LAT...LON 41538171 41628148 41638112 41498087 41158069 40818063
40608068 40508089 40388127 40288194 40258286 40288366
40378450 40558534 40838623 41098637 41498633 41818603
41918551 41828398 41718339 41448268 41418245 41478206
41538171
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next
week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of
multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of
the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone
development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower
Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry
downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold
front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of
next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up
to the weekend.
...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas...
Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across
southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4
(Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed
20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still
differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread
minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread
20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such,
40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained.
Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High
Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier
westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon
compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows
sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH
during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an
ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine
fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the
introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next
week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of
multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of
the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone
development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower
Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry
downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold
front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of
next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up
to the weekend.
...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas...
Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across
southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4
(Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed
20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still
differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread
minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread
20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such,
40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained.
Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High
Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier
westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon
compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows
sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH
during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an
ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine
fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the
introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next
week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of
multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of
the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone
development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower
Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry
downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold
front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of
next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up
to the weekend.
...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas...
Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across
southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4
(Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed
20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still
differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread
minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread
20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such,
40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained.
Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High
Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier
westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon
compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows
sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH
during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an
ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine
fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the
introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next
week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of
multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of
the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone
development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower
Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry
downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold
front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of
next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up
to the weekend.
...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas...
Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across
southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4
(Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed
20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still
differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread
minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread
20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such,
40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained.
Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High
Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier
westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon
compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows
sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH
during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an
ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine
fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the
introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next
week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of
multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of
the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone
development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower
Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry
downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold
front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of
next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up
to the weekend.
...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas...
Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across
southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4
(Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed
20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still
differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread
minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread
20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such,
40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained.
Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High
Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier
westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon
compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows
sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH
during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an
ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine
fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the
introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next
week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of
multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of
the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone
development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower
Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry
downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold
front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of
next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up
to the weekend.
...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas...
Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across
southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4
(Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed
20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still
differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread
minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread
20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such,
40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained.
Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High
Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier
westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon
compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows
sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH
during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an
ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine
fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the
introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next
week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of
multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of
the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone
development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower
Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry
downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold
front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of
next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up
to the weekend.
...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas...
Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across
southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4
(Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed
20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still
differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread
minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread
20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such,
40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained.
Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High
Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier
westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon
compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows
sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH
during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an
ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine
fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the
introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
6 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next
week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of
multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of
the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone
development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower
Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry
downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold
front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of
next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up
to the weekend.
...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas...
Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across
southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4
(Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed
20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still
differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread
minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread
20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such,
40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained.
Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High
Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier
westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon
compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows
sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH
during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an
ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine
fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the
introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities.
..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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